Xi Jinping's leadership team and President Trump's advance team have reached an agreement for Jimmy Lai to be released from prison on medical parole, in exchange for Xi Jinping's demand that Wang Ailin return to China.
Wang Ailin has resigned from her positions as mayor and city council member of Arcadia, California, and has agreed to plead guilty in federal court to felony charges of acting as an "illegal agent of the CCP."
Why is Xi Jinping going to such lengths to secure Wang Ailin's release? Primarily because she has long been involved in infiltrating, cultivating, and buying off American politicians, especially high-ranking members of the California Democratic Party…
It is worth noting that in addition to the "illegal agent" behavior mentioned in the plea agreement, the investigation has also revealed the following related information:
1. Related Person (Mike Sun): The key person related to this case is her former fiancé and campaign advisor, Yaoning "Mike" Sun. Sun pleaded guilty to the same charges in October 2025 and was sentenced to four years in federal prison in February 2026.
2. Specific Espionage Activities: Wang Ailin and Sun jointly operated a website called "American News Center." Evidence shows that they received article links directly from Chinese officials and published them, subsequently reporting the number of clicks to them.
Targeting Specific Groups: Sun was previously accused of collaborating with another spy, Chen Jun (who has already been sentenced), to plan the suppression of specific spiritual groups within the United States.
3. When Sun Yaoning was initially arrested, Wang Ailin vehemently denied any involvement. In September 2025, she publicly declared that Sun "was not her fiancé," but in a 2022 city council video recording, she personally thanked "my fiancé, Mike Sun."
The "Strategy Within a Strategy" of Trump's Return to Beijing
Nine years later, US President Donald Trump once again walked the red carpet in Beijing. However, behind this diplomatic grandeur, the atmosphere was unusually strange.
The Trump-Xi Meeting amidst Middle East tensions
On the one hand, the tensions in the Middle East remain high. The clash between the US and China over Iran is escalating from a cat-and-mouse game over oil transport blockades to a direct confrontation between U.S. secondary sanctions and China's "blocking measures."
On the other hand, U.S. officials have recently been sending mild signals that "decoupling is a disaster." Does this suggest an intention to "make peace" with Beijing in response to domestic inflationary pressures?
Things may not be so simple. This could very well be a "political anesthetic" administered to appease the opponent.
The essence of this US-China summit will not be a heartwarming tale of restarting globalization, but rather a struggle for the "final pricing power" in the great power game.
Trump brought Beijing not a peace package, but a "precision-guided" economic noose, officially opening the curtain on Cold War 2.0.
Trump uses "No Decoupling" as a cover for "Cold War 2.0"
US Treasury Secretary Bessant has repeatedly emphasized that the core of the Trump administration's current economic policy towards China is not "decoupling," but rather "risk mitigation."
The strategic logic is to build a new iron curtain of "strategic sovereignty" around the four "lifeline" industries: defense, healthcare, advanced AI packaging, and key minerals.
The so-called "risk mitigation," in essence, is to isolate China from core technologies and the dollar system.
President Trump, as a self-proclaimed "deal master," employs a game of strategy akin to a circus animal taming: both hold a tempting piece of meat in one hand and an electrified whip in the other.
"No decoupling" as bait; orders as "protection money"
Clearly, the recent "no decoupling" signals released by Bessant and other high-ranking officials are bait thrown out by the US.
Meanwhile, Trump threatened to reinstate extreme tariffs of up to 125%, inducing Beijing to sign massive purchase agreements in exchange for a temporary "trade truce."
These agreements are expected to include a commitment to purchase 25 million tons of US soybeans annually over the next three years, and up to 500 Boeing passenger aircraft (including the 737 Max).
For the US, this is a perfect "economic drain"—Trump not only precisely appeased the US agricultural stronghold and aviation giants, alleviating domestic inflationary pressures, but also massively depleted China's foreign exchange reserves accumulated from its projected $1.2 trillion trade surplus by 2025.
For the CCP, this is a "political protection fee" forced upon them to "buy time to survive" amidst internal strife and economic stagnation.
Locking off technology, raising the Iron Curtain of Cold War 2.0
While Beijing obediently paid the bill, hoping to gain breathing room, the US embargo on high technology not only did not ease, but tightened even further.
In April 2026, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) voted to ban Chinese laboratories from certifying electronic products sold in the U.S. The Treasury Department also imposed a comprehensive ban on U.S. entities investing in China's AI, quantum computing, and advanced semiconductor industries.
The Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has recently been rigorously investigating third-party transshipment points in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, cracking down on "shadow agents" smuggling AI chips to China.
The U.S. is simultaneously receiving payments from Boeing and soybeans while tightly controlling the export of advanced semiconductors and AI computing power.
Although the current U.S. administration has not explicitly designated China as an "enemy," this dual-track strategy of "economically draining and strategically crippling" directly blocks China's attempt to use "new-type productivity" to dump excess capacity globally.
This also signifies that the iron curtain of an economic cold war has effectively risen.
A head-on clash between China and the U.S.: The U.S. throws an "Energy Noose"
If trade was the appetizer at the Trump-Xi meeting, then Middle Eastern oil is the bomb that could explode at any moment on the negotiating table.
Before his trip abroad, Trump repeatedly demanded that China "take action" on the Iran issue. Bessant also pointed out in early May that China, which purchases 90% of Iran's energy, is a de facto "financier of terrorism."
The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran war has significantly amplified the economic impact of this energy crisis on various countries, including the United States and China.
Therefore, Trump will likely make the Iran issue and the Strait of Hormuz's reopening a key demand of the US, forcibly "outsourcing" energy security costs to China and compelling Beijing to take the fall.
As for whether the CCP has the possibility or the confidence to refuse this demand?
This is the key to great power competition: in this crisis, who is more resilient—China or the United States?
According to research by European think tank Bruegel and the British newspaper *The Guardian*, China had stockpiled a record 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves before the crisis, enough to offset imports via the Strait of Hormuz for seven months.
This may be the reason why China has not yet budged on the Iran issue with the United States. Even though the Straits blockade has already had a significant impact on the Chinese economy, especially private enterprises,
The United States has already taken action.
First, the U.S. initiated a "maritime blockade." Starting April 13, the US military blockaded all ships entering and leaving Iranian ports and is currently monitoring over 70 oil tankers; among them, China's "shadow fleet" is under special scrutiny, being tracked around the clock by satellites and US destroyers.
By early May, the US military had conducted "surgical" strikes, attacking and disabling several Iranian oil tankers attempting to break through the blockade, including those belonging to China's shadow fleet.
China's massive "shadow fleet" has long been transporting discounted Iranian crude oil to the "Teapot" underground refinery in Shandong. This is not only a lifeline for the Iranian regime but also the lifeblood for the CCP to maintain its advantage in cheap manufacturing.
The U.S. military is not the only one pursuing China's "shadow fleet."
On 24 April 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) formally sanctioned Dalian Hengli Petrochemical and its related "teapot" refineries, as well as 40 shipping entities and related vessels, accusing them of forming a "shadow fleet."
On 11 May 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its latest round of sanctions, sanctioning 12 entities and individuals located in Hong Kong, Dubai, and Oman, accusing them of assisting Iran in transporting crude oil to China.
This series of high-frequency, high-intensity sanctions and maritime blockades is the energy noose that the Trump administration has hurled at China. Its effect is twofold: on the one hand, cutting off the lifeline of the Iranian regime; on the other hand, strangling China's advantage in cheap manufacturing.
Beijing, however, does not seem to be sitting idly by, but has chosen to confront the situation openly.
On 4 May 2026, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, for the first time, invoked the "Blocking Measures" promulgated in 2021, directly ordering domestic companies to disregard U.S. sanctions, staging a head-on "sovereign-level default."
However, behind the scenes, Chinese financial regulators have issued verbal instructions, a so-called "window guidance," instructing large banks to suspend new loans to sanctioned "teapot" oil refineries.
This reflects Beijing's extreme fear of the secondary sanctions risk of being kicked out of the SWIFT dollar clearing system—a risk often referred to as a "financial nuclear bomb."
US-China Stress Test: Who will suffocate first?
Trump is attempting to force China to cut off financial support to Iran through tariffs and sanctions, but Xi Jinping does hold a trump card: key minerals, namely rare earth elements.
According to research by institutions such as PwC and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the US defense industry is 92% dependent on China for rare earth processing.
While the US government has implemented various national strategies in the key mineral sector, these are indeed insufficient to address the immediate crisis.
So, with both sides holding each other's short-term bottlenecks and lifelines in check, who can withstand a direct confrontation?
Let's conduct two extreme stress tests.
The first extreme test: If negotiations on the Iran issue break down and the US imposes a full-scale blockade and sanctions, how long can China withstand it?
According to data from think tanks such as Bruegel, China's energy reserves can theoretically last for seven months, seemingly preventing an immediate collapse of society and infrastructure.
However, the collapse in external demand triggered by U.S. sanctions would be devastating to China's manufacturing and export economy.
In a more extreme scenario, if the U.S. imposes financial sanctions on Chinese state-owned banks (kicking them out of the SWIFT dollar system), it would immediately plunge China into a catastrophic economic crisis. The current decline of Iran and Russia is the bitter fruit of swallowing this financial nuclear bomb.
The second extreme test scenario: If China completely cuts off rare earth exports, how long can the US withstand it?
Although the U.S. has consistently stated that its weapons reserves are sufficient, due to the large amount of advanced weaponry it has consumed in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, it urgently needs to replenish precision-guided munitions, interceptor missiles, and advanced electronic equipment.
Based on research from the Council on Foreign Relations and other institutions, the production of these advanced weapons is currently highly dependent on the rare earth ecosystem dominated by China. Once disrupted, the Pentagon's weapons supply lines would quickly dry up. Therefore, this scenario is clearly something the US government does not want to see.
However, this does not mean that the U.S., like China, is unable to withstand extreme pressure.
According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) April 2026 World Economic Outlook, a severe rare earth supply disruption would lead to a 1.5% decline in US GDP.
In other words, facing the extreme scenario of the CCP cutting off rare earth supplies, the U.S. military's weapons supply lines would be temporarily depleted, potentially triggering a US economic recession, but the impact would not be enough to cause a systemic economic collapse.
The Trump-Xi meeting in May 2026 is by no means a turning point in Sino-U.S. relations. This "trade list," which includes a tacit agreement to exchange millions of tons of soybeans for rare earths in exchange for chips, is essentially an extreme pressure exercise under the premise of "competitive coexistence."
The United States is waging a highly patient "asymmetric Cold War," offering the CCP the bait of "no decoupling," which is in reality an economic strangulation the latter cannot refuse:
Under the guise of maintaining low-end trade, it is implanting a "risk-de-escalation" virus into its system, cutting off the CCP's access to high technology and capital from the outside.
In this extreme test, the conclusion of the game is self-evident: the United States is clearly more resilient than the CCP.
If the game reaches its final suffocation point, the first to be eliminated will only be the CCP.
Twelve countries have sided with the United States, causing the CCP's painstakingly constructed strategy to collapse completely
Despite Xi Jinping's pronouncements of "Eastward Rise and Westward Decline," suggesting the rise of the Eastern bloc represented by China and the decline of the Western world led by the United States—implying China's replacement of Western hegemony—the reality is that US President Trump is solidifying America's unwavering pursuit of hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, while the foundations of Beijing's massive Belt and Road Initiative, a plan built over a decade, are increasingly crumbling.
An article in the *Nikkei Asian Review* analyzes that Trump has triggered a domino effect in Latin America. Since taking office for his second term, pro-American governments have been established one after another in the region, and China's economic influence has continued to decline.
The report first uses Cuba as an example to depict China's fatigue.
Since January, the lives of the Cuban people have been precarious due to the Trump administration's maritime blockade of Cuban oil tankers. It is said that the U.S. is seeking a "bloodless surrender," waiting for the Cuban government to voluntarily lower its anti-American flag.
The Chinese government condemned the US, expressed opposition to "external interference in Cuba's internal affairs," and demonstrated its support for Cuba. China has also repeatedly criticized Trump's energy blockade imposed after the January attack on Venezuela, which cut off Cuba's oil supply. However, compared to the Biden administration, China's actions during the Trump era have been significantly more restrained. In 2023, rumours circulated that China was preparing to build military training facilities and reconnaissance bases in Cuba. Such activities have decreased since Trump's return to the U.S. presidency in January 2025.
China's Belt and Road Initiative has encountered strong resistance in Latin America after Trump's return: the Donroe Doctrine (combining Trump's name with the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, centered on a hardline "America First" policy, viewing the Western Hemisphere as America's direct hinterland and "strategic backyard," employing aggressive means to maintain US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, ensure resource supply chain security, and contain the influence of China and Russia in the region).
The report points out that the Xi Jinping administration has been advocating the Belt and Road Initiative, a massive economic zone project, since 2013, and has gained support from Latin American countries. Besides Brazil and Mexico, more than 20 countries have expressed interest in participating, and Chinese capital continues to expand into regions considered America's "backyard."
In January, the Trump administration launched a raid on the Venezuelan capital, kidnapping President Maduro and successfully establishing a pro-American regime, just as it had anticipated. Fearing Trump's "Donaroism," Latin American countries are vying to adopt more pro-American stances.
Following the January attack on Venezuela, Panama, a Central American nation, revoked in February its earlier grant of management rights to two ports around the Panama Canal to a Hong Kong company, citing contractual breaches. Despite strong protests from China, the Panamanian government, constrained by the U.S.-China conflict since Trump took office, is unlikely to back down. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino also announced Panama's withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative.
Since 2025, major Latin American countries have successively established new pro-American governments: Honduras and Costa Rica in Central America, and Chile and Bolivia in South America. During this period, no pro-China Latin American regimes have been established, and the "pink wave" that swept through the late 2010s is now a distant memory.
In the November 2025 Honduran presidential election, Trump intervened at the last minute, pardoning the former president imprisoned in the US for drug trafficking and other crimes, helping his supported center-right candidate win. Newly elected President Nasry Asfura stated that he would consider restoring trade with Taiwan.
Following Mexico, Colombia also imposed tariffs on steel and other products from China in March. Many Latin American countries, especially Mexico, are heavily reliant on U.S. exports, making it difficult for them to prioritize China.
In March, the presidents of 12 pro-US Latin American countries attended the "Shield of the Americas Summit" hosted by Trump at his Florida golf club. Trump declared spiritedly, "We will not allow hostile foreign powers to gain a foothold in this hemisphere."
Elon Musk personally bypasses the Great Firewall to post! The CCP's internet censorship is publicly humiliated globally
After American tech billionaire Elon Musk arrived in Beijing with President Trump, his X account activity unexpectedly sparked a heated debate. Many netizens discovered clear VPN connections on Musk's X account page when he updated content from within China. Observers believe this wasn't an "accidental exposure," but rather a deliberate public satire of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) internet censorship.
After all, as the founder of Starlink, the world's most advanced satellite network, Musk possesses top-tier global communication technology resources, yet he still had to use a VPN to access his own platform, X, in China. This stark contrast was seen by many netizens as a direct slap in the face to the CCP's "Great Firewall."
Some bluntly stated, "Musk is deliberately showing the world just how extensive the CCP's internet censorship is." Others sarcastically remarked, "The world's richest man, the founder of Starlink, still has to use a VPN in Beijing; the image itself is humiliating enough."
Data shows that Musk's Starlink has not yet obtained radio frequency and telecommunications operation licenses from the CCP, thus preventing its legal operation in China. Despite Starlink's current coverage in over 150 countries, it remains completely blocked in China.
A well-known account on the X platform, "Teacher Li is Not Your Teacher," also posted a sarcastic comment, saying that Musk's experience was a firsthand demonstration of the Chinese Communist Party's internet censorship. Observers believe that Musk's direct exposure of his VPN activity is a silent irony: even with today's technological advancements, under the CCP's highly censorial system, even the world's top tech billionaires cannot freely access the internet.
Meanwhile, Fox News revealed that during Trump's visit to Beijing, the US delegation significantly upgraded its information security measures. To prevent CCP surveillance, officials largely switched to "clean equipment," temporary laptops, and controlled communication systems, minimizing the use of everyday electronic devices in China.
Former White House Chief Information Officer Theresa Payton warned that within China, "all words and actions must be assumed to be under surveillance." Former Secret Service agent Bill Gage went even further, stating that China is a "mass surveillance state," where data theft can occur through mobile phones, hotel Wi-Fi, charging devices, and even power banks.
Apollo News commentator Wang Duren analyzed that Musk's "circumventing the Great Firewall to post on X" has caused a global stir, and is not just tech news, but can also be understood as a public satire of the Chinese Communist Party's internet censorship system.
Image : After Musk arrived in Beijing with his delegation, a warning appeared on his social media platform X account's information page. (Image taken from the X platform)
