Translation : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA
Trump beats Kamala Harris 312 : 226
- Kamala Harris lost big, Obama's political correctness is completely ruined
Editor : Zhongkang / Source: Xiuming Notes / https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/1107/2126239.html / Image : Web Screenshot
The U.S. election is over. It can be said that Trump did not win a small victory, but a big victory. He not only won the electoral votes, but also won the popular vote. Kamala Harris's performance is not only worse than Biden in 2020, but even worse than Hillary in 2016.
As Obama's successor, Kamala Harris's failure completely declared the bankruptcy of Obama's line. The identity politics and political correctness represented by Obama will be completely swept into the garbage heap.
Let's look at the results first. Kamala Harris's poor performance is shameful. Her performance in red states, swing states, and blue states is far worse than Biden in 2020, and even worse than Hillary in 2016.
Let's look at Florida first. Florida has gradually turned red since 2016, but Biden only lost 3.3% in 2020, while Harris lost 13.3%, and the gap widened by 10%.
Looking at Texas, in 2020, Biden was only 5.6% behind Trump, while Harris was far behind by 14%. Previously, the Republicans had worried that if the situation in 2020 continued, Texas might turn blue, because a large number of pro-Democratic people from California were immigrating to Texas, which meant that the Republican Party would become an opposition party for a long time.
This year's election dispelled the Republican Party's doubts, and the red state base remained stable.
After talking about the red states, let's look at the three blue wall states that the Democratic Party had high hopes for. Kamala's performance was also a mess.
In the most critical swing state of Pennsylvania, the Democratic Party has almost all its grassroots personnel invested in the state. Democratic volunteers canvassed door to door, and many people even reported that they received three notifications a month, but even if mobilized to the limit, Kamala still lagged behind in Pennsylvania, and her performance was worse than in 2016.
In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2%, Hillary lost 0.7% in 2016, and now Kamala lost 2.8%. The New York Times predicts that the final result will be Trump leading by 1.9%.
If Pennsylvania cannot be won, Kamala Harris will most likely lose all blue wall states, which is an unprecedented defeat.
If swing states cannot be won, Kamala's performance in blue states is not satisfactory. Currently, she is only 4.6% ahead of Trump in Virginia, and is expected to lead by 5.2% in the end, which is similar to Hillary's performance. In 2020, Biden is leading by 10%, and the gap is greatly narrowed.
In New York State, Kamala is currently leading Trump by 8%, and is expected to lead by 13% in the end. In 2020, Biden is leading by 23%, and Hillary is also leading by 23%, and Kamala's advantage has shrunk by 10%.
The New York Times even predicts that Trump will eventually lead Kamala slightly in the popular vote, which means that her performance is even worse than Hillary, who was leading Trump by 2.1% in the popular vote at the time.
Judging from the current situation, the final result is probably that Trump will get 312 electoral votes and lead Kamala by less than 1% in the popular vote.
If Trump's position was still in doubt in 2016 because of his lagging behind in the popular vote, then this year Trump has really won the support of most Americans.
Seeing such an outcome, Trump was very happy. He had been hyping election fraud before, and it is estimated that he will soon change his words and say "Great election, Great system, Great nation". Trump will soon change from a destroyer of American democracy to a supporter of democracy.
After analyzing the election situation, let's look at why Kamala Harris has failed. I think there are several phenomena worth paying attention to.
1. The gap between urban and rural areas has widened further, but the right turn in rural and suburban areas is far more than the left turn in cities
The figure below is a comparison of the election situation in Georgia this year and the election situation in 2020. It can be seen that a large number of rural and suburban areas have turned right, and the city centered on Atlanta has turned left, but the right turn is greater than the left turn. This shows that the urban-rural gap in the United States is still widening, and the urban-rural gap and the college-educated/non-college-educated voters will still be the most important divisions in the future.
2. Huntington's prediction is completely bankrupt, Latinos turn right, and race is no longer a dividing line
The only optimistic point of this election is that Huntington's prediction has completely failed. Huntington once worried that the increase in Latinos would turn the United States into two opposing cultures and communities, but now it seems that Latinos are increasingly inclined to conservative whites, and they form a Catholic-Protestant alliance to jointly resist white leftists.
From the exit polls, Trump won 45% of Latino votes, which is even higher than Bush's 40% in 2004. This profoundly shows that race is no longer a dividing line between political parties, which means the ebb of identity politics.
3. The performance of Democratic governors and the House of Representatives is much better than Kamala
Just when Kamala Harris's performance was surprising, the performance of Democratic governors and the House of Representatives was unusually strong.
In North Carolina, Kamala Harris was 3% behind Trump but the Democratic candidate for governor was 14% ahead of the Republicans. In the House of Representatives, the New York Times predicts that the Democratic Party can still win a majority, and the performance of the Democratic Party in many constituencies exceeded expectations.
As in 2022, the poor performance of the presidential candidate did not drag down the Democratic Party's gubernatorial and congressional elections.
Many people say that inflation is the decisive factor in the election but they ignore the fact that the Democratic Party still retained the Senate in 2022 when inflation reached a high point, turning the red wave into ripples, and also ignore the fact that the Democratic governors and the House of Representatives performed strongly this year.
The different performances of Kamala Harris and other Democrats show that voters do not reject the Democratic Party but they reject Kamala. They are not prepared to accept her as president. Voters do not accept Kamala Harris, probably because of her politically correct identity, a radical left-wing minority woman from California with no children, that is almost completely opposite to the basic base of the United States. Secondly, Kamala Harris has never put forward a clear political mandate, that makes Americans lack confidence in her.
In July this year, the Democratic Party did not hesitate to overturn the results of the primary election to pull down the aging Joe Biden. Pelosi and Obama believed that Biden represented the decadent past, while Kamala Harris represented the progressive future. Now it seems that Obama has made a catastrophic mistake again. Kamala ultimately failed to win more support from minorities and women, and also lost white and suburban voters.
Judging from Kamala's performance, it is very likely that Biden, who could not speak clearly after the first debate, performed stronger than her. After all, Biden is a moderate old white man. His identity alone can stabilize enough basic bases. At least the workers, elderly white people and black voters in Pennsylvania will firmly support him.
Obama once again made a disastrous decision. In 2016, Obama was bearish on Joe Biden and chose Hillary, but lost. In 2024, he was bearish on Biden and chose Kamala Harris, but also lost.
(In July, as a Biden fan, I also shouted for Biden. At that time, my main account was confined and I posted on my secondary account. Alas! At that time, I felt that the replacement would fail.)
In short, replacing Biden proved to be a bad decision. It made the Democratic Party pay the price of violating procedures but failed to achieve better results. Biden became the only Democrat who defeated Trump because of the Democratic Party's decision.
Kamala Harris's failure also marked the complete bankruptcy of political correctness. I have said before that the identity politics and political correctness initiated by Obama after 2008 have always dominated the Democratic Party. Hollywood and Disney began to make all kinds of monsters in 2008. Now this trend has finally been completely swept into the garbage dump.
This election clearly tells the Democratic Party that radical leftism and political correctness are no longer feasible. The Democratic Party must change, must return to the moderate line represented by Clinton and Biden, and must choose old white men as the next candidate.
Misfortunes often bring blessings. I really hope that American movies, TV series, and animations will no longer be politically correct in the future. If Trump can really do this, it will be the only positive effect of this election.
The Democratic Party lost in the U.S. election. Experts: The economy is what voters care about
Reporters : Lin Jiawei and Li Yihong / https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2024/11/07/a103927679.html
In the 2024 U.S. election, the Democratic Party lost in both the presidency and the Senate. One of the biggest reasons for the defeat is considered to be the failure to propose convincing economic policies. Let's see the analysis of experts.
Political analyst Donte Mills: "The Democratic Party must reconsider its attitude towards the economy. They must consider manufacturing and job creation, rather than giving people some small things to try to cheat their votes. Unless this changes, they will hit a wall on economic issues. If Americans think that the economy is the most important issue, they will lose in all elections."
Even the Democrats think that Kamala Harris did not talk much about economic policies this time, which is a big failure.
Robin Biro, former regional campaign director for Obama: "They could have talked about the unemployment rate, which was below 4% for two consecutive years for the first time since 1960. I didn't hear them bragging about these numbers at all. I only heard them talk about issues that would create divisions. Exit polls show that voters don't care about these. We have to convey these messages, just like I told them again and again, to talk about the economy."
According to the latest exit polls released by Edison Research, 34% of voters this year considered themselves to be nonpartisan, higher than the 32% of Democrats. In addition, about 31% of voters said that the economy was their most concerned issue, and among these people, 79% voted for Trump. Showing how to win over the middle voters who focus on the economy has become one of the decisive points in the election.
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