Iran Revolutionary Guards abandon their posts and flee for their lives

 Direct translation

A mass exodus of Iranian regime members has erupted! Revolutionary Guards abandon their posts and flee for their lives.

Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor : Zhongkang / https://www.aboluowang.com/2026/0312/2358798.html

Amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli coalition's strikes against Iran, a large-scale exodus has occurred within the Islamic Republic of Iran regime. On 11 March 2026, the opposition hacking group Edalate Ali released internal intelligence revealing that employees of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), police, Basij militias, and key departments such as the Ministry of Defense, Intelligence Ministry, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Oil, and the judicial system are deserting en masse. The largest number of deserters are conscripts and rank-and-file soldiers, many of whom have abandoned their posts to return home or go into hiding.

Several videos circulating on social media show a Basij member recording outside a school converted into a military camp in Karaj, his face blurred as he says, "Everyone has left or is leaving, I'm going home too. The regime is finished, we should surrender. I just hope the people don't retaliate against us." Similar clips have spread rapidly, reflecting a collapse in morale within the grassroots law enforcement forces. The report indicates that senior officers have abandoned their posts, the chain of command has broken, and soldiers are deserting out of fear of becoming targets or out of disillusionment with the regime.

Some mid-level IRGC members have fled with their families to Pakistan, Afghanistan, and other places, even disguising themselves as civilians.

Since the outbreak of war (beginning with the assassination of Khamenei on 28 February 2026), Iran has reduced its internet connectivity to 1%, and checkpoints have been deployed extensively to prevent an uprising.

However, precise strikes by the US and Israel have destroyed multiple IRGC bases and checkpoints, further weakening street control.

The decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket has bet a 34% probability of the regime collapsing by 2026, with analysts believing that a "mass exodus" is a leading indicator of a major collapse.

Iranian officials deny a mass exodus, claiming the military is acting "independently." However, multiple intelligence sources and video evidence suggest that the regime's repressive apparatus is disintegrating from within, significantly increasing the likelihood of a popular uprising in Iran.