The poll gap in 6 of 7 states is less than 2%: A look at the duel between Trump and Kamala swing states

 Research, translating : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA

The poll gap in 6 of 7 states is less than 2%. Take a look at the duel between Trump and Kamala swing states

Reporter : Sun Yuqing / https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4853224 / Image : Trump and Harris are extremely close in the polls, and the battle is even fiercer in the seven major swing states. (AFP)

The U.S./ presidential election campaign is over. About 75 million people have voted in advance, and other voters will make their decisions on the 5th. The election is likely to be decided in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The US "Capitol Hill" newspaper (The Hill) pointed out that in 6 of these 7 states, the gap in support between Trump and Harris is less than 2%.

●Arizona/11 electoral votes

Trump's polling in the state is stronger than in other swing states, with Trump leading by 2.5% in the Capitol Hill News and Decision Desk poll and 3% in the New York Times poll. In 2020, although Biden won the state, the vote gap between him and Trump was less than 1%.

For Kamala, the early voting data looks bleak. The latest data from the University of Florida Elections Laboratory, which tracks early voting, shows Republicans cast 41% of the vote and Democrats 33%. During the 2020 early voting period, registered Democrats and Republicans each cast about 37% of the votes.

●Georgia/16 electoral votes

Polls by The Hill and Decision Desk showed that Trump led the state by 1.8%, but his lead in other polls was smaller, and he even trailed Kamala by 1% in the New York Times poll.

The Trump team stated that the early voting rate of farmers in the state has increased, and the turnout rate of African-Americans has decreased. Both phenomena may cause trouble for Kamalas. However, she refuted this statement on the 3rd, believing that she will "win" in the state.  It is a very close election".

Georgia is a state that Biden narrowly won in 2020, and it would be a big blow if Trump cannot win it this time.

●Michigan/15 electoral votes

Kamala leads in the Capitol Hill and Decision Desk polls, the only state where she has an advantage in the polls, but her advantage is only 0.8%.

Michigan's early voting data does not reveal party affiliation, but according to University of Florida data, 55% of early voters are women, which is good news for Kamala, but not decisive.

It is worth noting that Michigan is a state with the highest concentration of Arab voters, but the Biden administration's support for Israel has annoyed local voters and may affect Kamala's support rate.

●Nevada/6 electoral votes

The smallest of the seven swing states, but still influential.

Trump leads by 1.3% in the Capitol Hill and Decision Desk polls. In a state where early voting is often crucial, Republicans who have already voted appear to have erased the advantage Democrats enjoyed four years ago.

Overall, Democratic voters voted 4% more early than Republican voters in 2020 but as of the 4th, Republican early voting was 4% higher.

●North Carolina/16 electoral votes

This is one of the most interesting parts of all the swing states because the wind direction is so chaotic.

On the one hand, this is the only swing state this year that Trump won in 2020, and he will definitely seize the opportunity again. Trump leads by 1.4% in the Capitol Hill newspaper and Decision Desk average poll, and his lead in other polls is slightly lower. In the New York Times poll, Kamala leads by 3%.

On the other hand, the Trump campaign arranged four events in the state in the last three days of the campaign, which is hardly a confident decision.

Preliminary voting data shows that Democratic and Republican voters are about as active as they were four years ago.

●Pennsylvania/19 electoral votes

The largest swing state held numerous campaign rallies in the final days of the campaign and spent hundreds of millions of dollars on television ads during the campaign.

Trump leads by just 0.5% in the Capitol Hill and Decision Desk average polls. The state is another where Republicans hold a larger share of early voting than they did four years ago. The Trump campaign believes that the number of women voting early has not reached the number Kamala hoped, but Kamala's team is still confident.

●Wisconsin/10 electoral votes

Wisconsin is one of Kamala's strongest swing states, and together with Pennsylvania and Michigan, it is known as the "Blue Wall State." With the exception of Trump in 2016, no Republican candidate has won these states in a presidential election since the 1980s.

Judging from the average poll of the Capitol Hill newspaper and the Decision Desk, Trump and Kamala are completely tied. If Kamala loses the state, she will be in very serious trouble, and the Democratic Party will also be nervous, because Trump's actual vote performance in 2016 and 2020 is much better than poll estimates.