Trump wants to establish a new order but Kamala Harris remains unchanged

Research, editing : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA

Who controls the White House? Analysis: Trump wants to establish a new order but Kamala Harris remains unchanged

Reporter : Fei Zhen / Editor : Sun Yun /  https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/24/11/4/n14364338.htm / Image : (Left) Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters at a campaign event at Little Chute High School in Wisconsin on 1 November 2024. (Scott Olson/Getty Images) (Right) Former U.S. President and current Republican presidential candidate Trump talks about the economy, inflation and manufacturing at an Alro Steel campaign event in Porterville, Michigan, on 29 August 2024 . (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)

5 November  will finally usher in the most fierce competition in the history of the U.S. presidential election. The latest polls show that the Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris are still in a tug of war. However, whoever is the next president of the United States will lead the United States to take the pulse of the world's political and economic situation.

Critics analyze that if Trump is elected, a new world order may emerge. Harris' election will, in principle, continue Biden's line of containing the CCP. Bipartisan support for Taiwan will not change.

On the penultimate day of the election, Republican presidential candidate Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris are still competing fiercely in seven swing states. According to the latest consolidated polls from the US polling website "True Clear Politics", Trump currently maintains the lead in five swing states. A recent New York Times poll found that the two candidates were neck-and-neck, and both were within the margin of error.

Based on reports from mainstream media in the United States, in this U.S. presidential election, which the world is watching with bated breath, the difference in the candidate will affect U.S.-China relations, U.S.-Taiwan relations, and even changes in the strategy of the Indo-Pacific region.

No matter who comes to power, U.S.-Taiwan relations will remain unchanged

Former U.S. Department of Defense official Hu Zhendong told The Epoch Times that U.S. support for Taiwan will not change no matter who is elected because the United States is a country with three branches of power: the president, Congress, and the Supreme Court.

"In particular, Congress represents the people. Now the American people support Taiwan much more than they support China, so both the Democratic and Republican parties in Congress support Taiwan."

The difference is how to support Taiwan. Hu Zhendong said that President Biden used his "Presidential Appropriation Authority" (PDA) for the first time last year to let Taiwan get many things it needs, and the United States pays for them to take them directly from the United States' inventory.

"If Trump becomes president, Nothing is free, and there may be no PDAs. On the other hand, if Taiwan wants to buy weapons, Trump may sell more than Biden gives," Hu Zhendong said. Kamala may continue what Biden did, or may continue to use PDA to obtain weapons for Taiwan.

Wu Jialong, a senior political and economic commentator in Taiwan, emphasized that since the beginning of the trade war, the United States has been tough on the CCP while also playing the Taiwan card. Regardless of whether Trump or Harris is elected, the strategic direction is to confront the CCP. Both parties in the United States believe that the rise of the CCP as a great power poses a great threat to the United States, East Asia, and the international order.

If Kamala took office she will continue Biden's line of containing the CCP

Regarding Kamala’s U.S. national security line and China line, General Yu, former dean of the School of Political Science and Warfare at Taiwan’s National Defense University, told The Epoch Times that Biden’s so-called line of continuous containment will basically be continued.

General Yu analyzed that because Biden has publicly stated to the media five times that the United States will definitely intervene and send troops if something happens to Taiwan, it means that Biden has set a high threshold for Kamala.

He said that if Kamala wants to express the United States' security commitment to Taiwan in the future, she will either cater to the high domestic antipathy toward China in the United States, or show the world that the United States can continue to play a leading role in the world.

Although Kamala adopted a relatively vague policy on the Taiwan Strait issue during the election, General Yu believes that if she were elected, she will continue the Biden administration's line of conflict, cooperation, and confrontation, and there will not be much change. 

Wu Jialong also agreed that Kamala's coming to power will continue Biden's political character. However, Wu Jialong believes that this approach of wanting to compromise is likely to encourage the CCP to continue to exert pressure on the current status of the international order, continue to challenge the United States, and continue to test and test the will and determination of the United States.

Therefore, he is worried that if Kamala comes forward, the international order may worsen because bad guys will keep testing her.

If Trump is elected, a "new world order" will emerge and reduce the axis of evil's military adventures

Human rights activist and senior media figure Yang Xianhong said in an interview with The Epoch Times that if Trump is elected, the entire world may have a New World Order, which means viewing the world from Trump’s perspective.

Yang Xianhong pointed out that Israel’s recent sweep in the Middle East, coupled with the war between Russia and Ukraine, has reached a point where it must be resolved. Everyone is talking about how to solve it. Yang Xianhong believes that the problem should be solved based on the bottom line of conscience and honesty.

He said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Argentine President Javier Milei both accused the United Nations of violating the United Nations Charter. In fact, Trump said during his last term that the United States would withdraw from the United Nations. This time he may withdraw from the United Nations, and there will be a New World Order, which will combine all democratic countries to form a new international alliance.

General Yu Zongji said in an interview that no matter who is elected, it will actually affect U.S.-China relations, U.S.-Taiwan relations, cross-strait relations, and even the situation in the Indo-Pacific region.

Therefore, General Yu believes that it is foreseeable that if Trump comes to power, the leaders of evil axis countries such as Putin (Russia) and Xi Jinping (CCP China) will see their chances of military adventures and armed provocations relatively reduced. Because Trump's style of conduct is unilateralism, he will not consult other allies when deciding what actions to take. His tolerance is not like the Biden-Harris administration, which has rules of the game and adopts multilateralism.

Wu Jialong also believes that Taiwan is likely to join the US military exercises and transnational exercises in the Western Pacific in the future. The goal is to equip Taiwan with sufficient defense capabilities and will to deter the CCP from any foreign military adventures.

If Trump takes office, TSMC will expand investment in the United States

Liu Fuguo, an adjunct researcher at the International Relations Research Center of National Chengchi University, also recently said that if Trump is elected, TSMC may be under geopolitical pressure to expand investment in the United States. Because Trump proposed that Taiwan "stole" the U.S. semiconductor industry, even though it was election language, it did cause a reaction in the capital market.

Lian Xianming, dean of China Economic Research Institute, also predicted that the global supply chain may need to be reorganized again, and setting up factories in the United States will become a new trend.

On 26 October 2024, at TSMC's annual sports meeting, founder Zhang Zhongmou said in his speech that 2024 will be another record-breaking year for TSMC, but "the most severe challenge is right ahead" because in the face of globalization, TSMC now  has truly become a battleground for military strategists."

In this regard, General Yu believes that Trump will definitely continue to exert pressure. In the future, it is expected that TSMC will increase investment in the United States or add more advanced process factories.

General Yu also mentioned in particular that many popular media in Taiwan have been leading the trend recently and engaged in cognitive warfare, saying that if Trump is elected, Taiwan's national protector TSMC will be miserable and will be retaliated against, causing TSMC's stock to fall for several days in a row.

As for Trump’s demand for military spending sharing, Hu Zhendong said that the U.S.’s national security policy since World War II has been “forward presence”, which means that the military is deployed at the enemy’s doorstep, and it also relies on your friends. Let you place your army at the door of the enemy's house.

Therefore, such a deployment will first truly protect the United States, and then its friends. Compared with South Korea and Japan, which have to pay for US troops stationed there, General Yu said that Taiwan currently has no U.S. troops stationed, so it is relatively simple.