U.S. commander reveals horrific consequences of war in Taiwan Strait

 Direct translation

It will be worse than the Great Depression, 500,000 people will die of despair! US commander reveals terrifying Taiwan Strait war 

Editor : Fang Xun  / Source: World News Network / https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/0416/2205500.html /Image : Paparo file photo

Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned at a Senate hearing on 10 April 2025 that if a war breaks out in the Western Pacific, it will destroy the global economy, increase the risk of nuclear war, and even cause 500,000 people to die in despair. He also emphasized the importance of the Taiwan Strait to global trade, and Taiwan's semiconductors are also vital to the U.S. economy.

According to the U.S. Naval Institute News (USNI News), Paparo pointed out that if a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, blocking the waterway between China and Taiwan will have a serious impact on global trade, and its consequences may even exceed the Great Depression of the 1930s. He added that Taiwan is one of the cores of the global semiconductor industry. If the production line is blocked, it will seriously impact the modernization and growth of the U.S. domestic economy.

Paparo said that China's military pressure on Taiwan has increased by 300%. It is not a simple military exercise, but a "real combat exercise" to rehearse the forced takeover of Taiwan.

He warned that if a regional war breaks out, Asia's GDP may fall by 25%, the U.S. GDP may fall by 10 to 12 percentage points, the unemployment rate may rise by 7 to 10 percentage points, and 500,000 people may "die of despair", such as suicide, drug overdose and other social problems. Even if the US successfully intervenes, it can only halve the damage, and it will still cause a "huge humanitarian disaster".

Paparo also pointed out that the trust between regional allies and partners will be tested. If the US influence declines, "some Indo-Pacific countries may succumb to China's long-term goal of dominating the international order", and others may turn to developing their own nuclear weapons due to security anxiety, leading to escalation of conflicts.

Gen. Xavier Brunson, the highest commander of the US in South Korea, who attended the hearing with Paparo, also said that if the US military commitment in Northeast Asia and Taiwan is reduced, Japan and South Korea may consider developing nuclear weapons.

Paparo emphasized that if the US military in South Korea is reduced to less than 28,000, it will weaken the U.S.'s wartime response capabilities and increase the risk of North Korean invasion. He added that Seoul's contribution to the entire Indo-Pacific security architecture goes far beyond the Korean Peninsula itself.

In his opening remarks, Brunson pointed out that if the U.S. military budget and military power are cut, it will be difficult to curb North Korea's expansion and counter the threat from China and Russia. He emphasized that the South Korean military plays a key role in the Indo-Pacific Command's sensing and deterrence in the north.

Paparo also warned that the North Korean threat should not be underestimated: "Kim Jong-un's intentions may change with the wind, and the army he has built is designed to cause significant damage to South Korea. We must maintain an effective deterrent posture."

Regarding the Indo-Pacific defense capabilities, Paparo called for strengthening C5R (command, control, communications, computers, networks, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) counter-capabilities, as well as strengthening space, network, long-range firepower and key platform strike capabilities. He said: "The victory of World War II relied on logistics support, not artificial intelligence. You can't use AI to make up for the lack of physical equipment."

He pointed out that shipbuilding delays, labor shortages and insufficient transport fleets are the main bottlenecks facing the Ut.S. military. The Indo-Pacific Command is moving towards unmanned systems to promote the deployment of smaller and more dispersed forces.

Regarding the current status of the Navy's amphibious fleet, Paparo admitted: "Our current fleet is under-resourced and under-prepared." These 32 ships are responsible for transporting the Marines and their equipment and aircraft.

Paparo file photo

According to a report by the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) in December last year, the Navy needs to maintain 31 combat amphibious ships to meet demand, but half of the ships are in poor condition and some ships have been unable to go out for years. In order to save budget, the Navy decommissioned some ships in advance and canceled necessary repairs, but still has to rely on these under-maintained ships.

In order to improve the efficiency of ship maintenance, the U.S. Navy announced a new trial plan at the "Sea and Air Pacific Forum" this week, which will determine maintenance projects 500 days in advance and award contracts 360 days in advance, hoping to reduce maintenance delays.

The Navy's goal is to enable 80% of its surface fleet, submarines and aircraft to be deployed immediately to respond to crises.

Finally, Paparo also said that the Trump administration's decision to cut or cancel the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) will allow China to take advantage of the situation and expand its influence in disaster relief and humanitarian aid. "I have always advocated the retention of USAID, otherwise Beijing will quickly fill the gap and gain more voice."