Public anticipation of a military mutiny in mainland China

 Direct translation

"Finally, the gunshots have been heard! Nationwide countdown to Xi Jinping's downfall"

—Xi Jinping's erratic behavior fuels public anticipation of a military mutiny

Report by : Xin Gaodi / Editor: Fang Xun / Source: X /  https://www.aboluowang.com/2026/0129/2341058.html

Whether it ultimately proves to be all bark and no bite, or a genuine upheaval, the current undercurrent of anticipation for a military mutiny on the internet clearly indicates that Xi Jinping's rule is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of trust and a erosion of legitimacy.

Since the official announcement of Zhang Youxia's arrest, rumors have been rampant online about large-scale movements within the Chinese military, with multiple army groups converging or advancing towards Beijing. In particular, claims that the 82nd (Baoding), 83rd (Xinxiang), 79th (Liaoyang), and 80th (Weifang) Group Armies, supposedly the main forces, arrived in Beijing and its surrounding areas before January 27th, and that even further afield, the 81st, 78th, 72nd, 73rd, 77th, and 76th Group Armies each dispatched one or two brigades to Beijing by rail or highway, have sparked heated discussions and fervent anticipation among netizens both at home and abroad.

The core narrative of these rumors is that a serious split has emerged within the military, with some army groups no longer solely following the lead of "one man," but instead using various pretexts (including "rescuing Zhang Youxia" or "expressing an attitude") to pressure the capital, aiming to force the Central Guard and other "imperial guards" to abandon their loyalty and "defect" or "surrender" as soon as possible. Netizens interpret this as Xi Jinping having completely lost the support of the military, and the imminent collapse of his regime's legitimacy.

Based on publicly available information and videos and leaks circulating online, since the second half of 2025, there have indeed been several instances of unusual movements of military vehicles and armored vehicle convoys around Beijing, particularly the movements of the 82nd Group Army (formerly the 38th Army, the "Long Live Army") in the Baoding area of ​​Hebei Province. Around the time of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee and other major meetings, similar images of "military vehicles entering Beijing" and "tanks passing through Chang'an Avenue at night" have repeatedly appeared, with overseas self-media and platforms directly linking them to "overthrowing Xi," "military coups," and "coup d'état." Some commentators bluntly stated that Xi Jinping's policies, economic missteps, overreaching anti-corruption campaign, and diplomatic isolation have alienated the military from top to bottom. The resentment among soldiers and lower-ranking officers has been building for a long time, and now they are simply using various pretexts of "going to Beijing" to vent their frustrations and show their allegiance.

Furthermore, netizens expressed this anticipation vividly:

"Finally, the gunfire has begun! Let the bullets fly for a while!"

"Xi's core leadership has long been deserted by his followers. The military isn't stupid; who would be willing to die for one person?"

"With Zhang Youxia down, Xi's faction is collapsing. The whole nation is counting down the days."

"With the military so unpopular, it would be strange if it didn't rebel."

This "anticipation of mutiny" reflects the extreme disappointment and powerlessness of a considerable number of people towards the current system. Long-term information blockade, downward economic pressure, and intensified social control have led many to pin their hopes on the traditional path of "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Rumors of a "symbolic deployment of troops from a distant army group" and "pressure on the Imperial Guard to surrender as soon as possible" have been interpreted as a tacit understanding within the military of an "anti-Xi coalition," waiting for a trigger or a shot to be fired.

Of course, most of these rumors have not been officially confirmed, and many details contradict each other (such as timing, scale, and purpose). The CCP has remained silent so far, or used excuses like "normal training exercises" and "combat readiness adjustments." But the more the official avoidance, the higher the speculation and emotions among the public rise. Netizens are forwarding videos and screenshots while leaving comments such as, "We'll see in the next few days," and "When the gunshots ring out, it will be a new era."

Whether it ultimately turns out to be all bark and no bite, or a real upheaval, the current undercurrent of "hoping for a military mutiny" on the internet clearly indicates that Xi Jinping's rule is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of trust and legitimacy. Public support is waning, and the morale within the military is unpredictable. When "unpopularity" becomes a consensus in public discussion, any slight disturbance can be amplified into a signal to "oust Xi." This may be the most dangerous and realistic picture of China today.

Image : File photo

A quasi-mutiny has emerged within the Chinese military, with insubordination spreading and military orders stalled

Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor : Zhongkang / https://www.aboluowang.com/2026/0128/2340899.html 

Several sources close to the Chinese military disclosed to The Epoch Times that following the investigations of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, numerous directives from the Central Military Commission (CMC) have faced widespread resistance at the grassroots level. Many officers and soldiers privately questioned why the authorities detained and investigated two long-respected generals, considered "veteran leaders," without publicly disclosing clear evidence.

Mr. Ruan, an insider in the CCP's military and political system, stated that on the 24th, the CMC required all units to "maintain consistency with the Party Central Committee and the CMC" and to conduct study sessions and express their stance, but many localities refused to respond; a reissued document the following day was also met with indifference. A source close to the military bluntly stated, "The orders have been issued, but nobody takes them seriously."

This grassroots resistance is spilling over. In the Eastern Theater Command, some officers and soldiers privately joked about the supreme commander, calling Xi Jinping by his nickname "Baozi" (steamed bun). A military officer's family member said, "When orders are no longer seen as mandatory, war mobilization loses its foundation."

Mr. Hu, a graduate of a military academy, pointed out that this bottom-up resistance is extremely rare, and the current "collective silence" is seen as a direct denial of personal authority, with serious consequences. Military scholar Mr. Yuan analyzed that the Central Military Commission (CMC) currently consists only of Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin, resulting in an imbalance between civilian and military personnel, making it difficult to effectively command the combat system. The severe blow to the military officer system is seen as disrupting the existing balance and is a key factor in the rapid spread of resistance.

Multiple informed sources warned that if the decision is not adjusted and Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are not released, the CMC will gradually lose absolute command over approximately 2 million active-duty troops. The shock of Zhang Youxia's arrest is pushing the CCP into a period of high instability, and Xi Jinping faces the most severe military crisis since taking power.