Direct translation
Following the arrest of Zhang Youxia, reports of unusual military movements have emerged, suggesting a potential civil war in China
Editor : Wen Bin / https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2026/01/27/a104060630.html / Image : On 5 March 2025, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, attended the National People's Congress. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
The simultaneous arrest of Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, and Liu Zhenli, Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, has shocked public opinion. Wu Jialong, a senior political and economic commentator in Taiwan, analyzed that forces reportedly supporting Zhang Youxia are advancing towards Beijing, potentially triggering a civil war in China.
On 24 January 2026, the Ministry of National Defense of the Communist Party of China announced that Zhang Youxia, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, a member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, were "suspected of serious violations of discipline and law" and were placed under investigation.
On 26 March 2026, Wu Jialong analyzed on Facebook that the arrests of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were still unresolved, and Xi Jinping, seizing the media, was accelerating official announcements, stating that the situation was very tense and that "the situation in China may deteriorate."
The article cited sources analyzing that "it is said that forces supporting Zhang Youxia are advancing towards Beijing, and a civil war may break out in China."
After Zhang Youxia's arrest, videos circulating online showed military convoys on Chinese highways, reportedly heading towards Beijing.
Du Wen, a former Inner Mongolian official residing overseas, previously posted on the X platform that after Zhang Youxia's arrest, "Xi Jinping is very afraid of the troops entering Beijing." He cited sources within the system, saying that the CCP military is currently at its most tense since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and that Zhang Youxia, as the second-highest-ranking figure in the military, promoted thousands of generals. His arrest could trigger a large-scale mutiny within the CCP military at any time.
Wu Jialong analyzed in his article that one should not assume that Zhang Youxia is easy to deal with, or that he can be arrested so easily. Moreover, many of Xi Jinping's initiatives have failed, including the Belt and Road Initiative, the Xiong'an New Area, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, the Beijing Stock Exchange, the Hainan Free Trade Zone, and the Shenzhen International Financial Center. Of course, the Hong Kong project is also largely unfinished. "I boldly predict that his (Xi Jinping's) attempt to deal with Zhang Youxia might also fail. Let's observe and see, no rush."
Image : Screenshot from Wu Jialong's Facebook page
Furthermore, Wu Jialong says, don't worry that Xi Jinping will gain absolute power and be unchecked, leading to a military adventure against Taiwan. Many people are advocating this argument, "I disagree." The current confrontation between Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia is not so simple. He is busy dealing with internal affairs and has no energy to turn to Taiwan.
Furthermore, for Taiwan's security, Taiwan needs internal deployments, informants, intelligence, and satellite surveillance of Chinese military activities. Taking action against Taiwan is not so easy! Besides, what kind of capable generals does Xi Jinping have to carry out such a difficult mission as an attack on Taiwan? Wu Jialong stated that if such a person truly existed, would there be any need to deal with Zhang Youxia?
Wu Jialong believes that a civil war within the CCP, followed by regional separatism, and then a situation similar to the late Qing Dynasty, cannot be ruled out. He said, "I mean, such a possibility exists, so there's no rush; let's observe first."
On the 26th, the X account "Horn" posted that the exact truth regarding Zhang Youxia's arrest is currently unknown. However, two things are certain:
1. With several rounds of military leaders falling from power, regardless of whether Xi Jinping still firmly holds military power, he has certainly completely lost the support of the military.
2. Simultaneously, Xi Jinping no longer enjoys prestige and popular support within the entire cadre system, including provincial and ministerial levels.
Image : Screenshot X
The post analyzes, "With Xi Jinping losing both military and political support, the initial conditions for warlordism and regional separatism have already been met across China. The situation could change rapidly in the next week. Once discontent spreads within the military, generals might become increasingly independent and disobedient, or they might join forces with local warlords. While not 'rebelling,' this would gradually create de facto regional power structures. At that point, Xi Jinping would only have two choices: take a gamble or step down."
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