Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Paving the way for the restoration of diplomatic ties between the U.S. and Taiwan

 Direct translation

Chen Weijian: The US deleted the statement that it does not support Taiwan independence to pave the way for the restoration of diplomatic relations between the US and Taiwan


Recently, the U.S. State Department’s official website has updated its content on Taiwan, deleting the statement “not supporting Taiwan independence” and adding content on Taiwan’s cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense in science and technology and semiconductor projects, as well as a statement supporting Taiwan’s joining international organizations “under appropriate circumstances.” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung welcomed these changes, believing that this reflects the United States’ support and positive attitude towards Taiwan-U.S. relations.

Although the U.S. State Department stated that this website update is routine and aims to convey to the public the current status of unofficial relations between the United States and Taiwan. However, from a logical level, it is a response to a joint resolution recently proposed by 24 Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives on February 6. The resolution recommends that the U.S. government end the “one China” policy and establish formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Although American politicians have proposed the resumption of diplomatic relations with Taiwan many times, this is the first time that so many members have formally proposed it together.

This modification of the State Department’s official website shows that the United States is no longer obsessed with the principle of “only one China.” This is the biggest change in China policy since Trump took office, and this policy breaks the red line that the Chinese Communist Party has repeatedly set for the United States. This change is a nuclear-like blow to the Chinese Communist regime, much more powerful than tariffs and high-tech containment. Tariffs are a double-edged sword, and the interests of both sides will be harmed. High-tech containment can only make China lag behind for a few years, and China will catch up. This is the case with DeepSeek. But if diplomatic relations are restored with Taiwan, the situation will be completely different. This is a political blow that touches the foundation of the Chinese Communist regime. The Chinese Communist Party has repeatedly emphasized that this is China's core interest that cannot be touched. In other aspects, it is okay to step on the red line, but the principle of one China cannot be touched. Therefore, successive US governments have been cautious about this. Even when senior US officials visit Taiwan, they reiterate that the one-China policy remains unchanged. But now the Trump administration has officially deleted the statement that it does not support Taiwan independence. This not only denies the one-China principle, but also paves the way for the restoration of US-Taiwan relations.

After the US State Department website deleted the statement about not supporting Taiwan independence, Beijing accused the US of "seriously regressing" on its position on the Taiwan issue on Monday (February 17) and urged the US to "correct its mistakes immediately" to avoid further damage to Sino-US relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. This statement is obviously quite mild. It only says that the United States has retreated on this issue, not broken through, and has stepped on the red line of China's core interests. China must fight back. It seems that after Trump came to power, China has no intention to compete with the United States on this core interest. The so-called core interests and the so-called red line are gone.

The United States deleted the statement "do not support Taiwan independence". The updated page still emphasizes that the United States opposes any unilateral change of the status quo and supports the two sides to resolve differences through peaceful means. This statement can be understood in this way. That is, Taiwan as the Republic of China is an independent existence. This is also what the Taiwan government has repeatedly emphasized. Taiwan does not need to declare independence. The Republic of China has always been an independent country. Therefore, even if it resumes diplomatic relations with the United States, it will not change the status quo. The differences between the two sides must be resolved in a peaceful way. This is the red line set by the United States for China. Otherwise, the United States will defend Taiwan from aggression in accordance with the "US-Taiwan Relations Act".

China's rise began with the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States and the severance of diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan. If the United States and Taiwan resume diplomatic relations, it will cause a chain reaction internationally, just like when the United States established diplomatic relations with China and severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan, countries around the world followed suit. Of course, the CCP can ignore it, but the diplomatic Waterloo and the complete failure of nationalist unification will inevitably affect domestic politics. One possibility is that Xi Jinping launched a cross-strait war to make up for the failure, and the other possibility is that the CCP requires Xi Jinping to take responsibility and step down. Launching a cross-strait war may lead to the collapse of the CCP regime due to the failure of the war. If Xi Jinping steps down, the CCP may have to recognize one China and one Taiwan, one side and one country in the face of reality. Therefore, the deletion of the State Council website that does not support Taiwan independence is a fatal blow to the CCP.

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