Direct translation / Host : Fu Yao / https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2025/07/16/a104003851.html
More dangerous than Mount Fuji? Is this the volcano predicted for 2025?
2025 seems destined to be a turbulent year. The prophecy says that earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions will follow one after another this year. Many prophets have marked June and July as the most intensive time for disasters. What is disturbing is that these warnings... seem to be fulfilling one by one.
After entering 2025, news of earthquakes has been reported in many countries and regions. Kilauea, the second largest volcano in Hawaii, has also erupted many times. The most recent one was on 25 May 2025, when lava shot straight into the sky like a fountain, about 300 m high. The Sakurajima volcano in Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan is also restless. Since mid-May, the volcanic activity has been intense. An eruption on 23 May 2025 directly pushed the smoke to an altitude of 2,800 meters. The Japan Meteorological Agency said that less than half of this year has passed, and Sakurajima has erupted 131 times, which is almost three times the number of eruptions in the whole of last year.
Scientists comforted everyone that the scale of crustal movement observed so far has not increased, so do not be too nervous but people still cannot help but think of the amazing prophecy of the Bulgarian prophet, the blind Baba Vanga, which was circulated on the Internet: in 2025, a dormant volcano somewhere in the world will shock human civilization.
Everyone is guessing, if there is a large volcanic eruption, which volcano will it be? Mount Fuji? Yellowstone Park?
Countless eyes are staring at the Pacific Ring of Fire. This is no wonder. We have introduced in the program before that the geological plates in this area are active frequently, and 90% of the earthquakes and 75% of the volcanoes on the earth are concentrated here.
However, outside these sights, there is a volcano that has been dormant for thousands of years, gathering energy unknown to people. This volcano is not in Japan or the United States. It is quietly lying on the border between China and North Korea. It once erupted the most violent volcanic disaster in 2,000 years, and now it is waking up...
It is Changbai Mountain.
Changbai Mountain Millennium Eruption
Changbai Mountain, also known as Paektu Mountain, is located at the junction of Jilin Province, China and North Hamgyong Province, North Korea. It is a typical volcanic terrain, a plateau mountain system composed of basalt and pyroclastic rocks. The main peak "General Peak" is 2,749 meters above sea level and is the highest peak in Northeast Asia. The crater on the top of the mountain accumulates water into a lake, which is the famous "Heavenly Lake", with a diameter of about 4.4 km and a maximum depth of more than 370 m.
The terrain here is steep and the climate is harsh, but at the same time the scenery is magnificent, and it is called the "Top of the North". In China, it is a national nature reserve; in North Korea, it is a sacred mountain symbolizing the national spirit.
However behind these magnificence and myths, its essence is an active volcano. Scientists call it a potential "super volcano", and it is ranked as one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world along with Yellowstone Park.
The last time Changbai Mountain shocked the world was in 946 AD, more than a thousand years ago. The historical books of Liaodong region in China recorded this passage, saying that in an instant "the day became like night, the sound was like thunder, the grass and trees were scorched, and the birds fell to the ground".
According to the History of Goryeo, the capital of Goryeo, Kaesong, 450 km away from Changbai Mountain, also felt the tremor. The historical records recorded that "in that year, the drums of heaven sounded and pardons were given." The then Goryeo monarch Jeongjong was very scared and pardoned a large number of prisoners in order to avoid disasters.
Modern research shows that the eruption index of Changbai Mountain at that time reached VEI-7 level, which was equivalent to a thousand Hiroshima atomic bombs, second only to the top VEI-8 "end of the world" eruption in history.
The disaster spewed more than 100 cubic kilometers of pyroclastic material into the sky, which is almost a hundred times the most destructive volcanic eruption in US history, the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption.
A large amount of volcanic ash fell, and thick volcanic ash covered the entire northern part of the Korean Peninsula and northeastern China. According to geologists, the thick layer of volcanic ash deposited an area of more than 30,000 square km, equivalent to nearly one-third of the area of the Korean Peninsula today.
These volcanic ashes even drifted across the Sea of Japan and fell to the western part of Honshu, Japan, 1,200 km away. According to records from the Heian period in Japan, the sky suddenly darkened and "black snow" fell. The "Kofukuji Chronicle" of Kofukuji Temple in Nara, Japan, recorded that on November 3 of that year, white ash rain fell in Nara. Later studies found that the volcanic ash from this millennium eruption drifted as far east as the Kuril Trench east of Hokkaido, Japan.
Geologists call this Changbai Mountain eruption the "Millennium Eruption". Studies have shown that within a few years after the eruption, the temperature in East Asia dropped sharply and crops failed. Some scholars even believe that this volcanic eruption may have accelerated the power transition between the Khitan and Bohai Kingdom at that time.
The Changbai Mountain Tianchi Lake, which is 2,189 m above sea level and has a unique scenery, was also formed in the "Millennium Eruption", like a beautiful mark left by nature.
After that, Changbai Mountain had several small-scale eruptions. For example, the "Annals of the Joseon Dynasty" recorded that on June 2, 1668, the seventh year of the reign of Emperor Kangxi in the Qing Dynasty, the "rain ash" phenomenon was recorded in Gyeongseongfu and Funing in Hamgyong Province, Korea. On April 14, 1702, the 41st year of the reign of Emperor Kangxi in the Qing Dynasty, the Korean region "had a dark sky and earth, and sometimes there was red and yellow smoke and flames, and the stench filled the room as if it was in a furnace".
These are the last historical records of the Changbai Mountain volcanic eruption. After that, it seemed to have fallen into a deep sleep. However, in 2002, scientists captured a series of disturbing signals...
Volcano resurgence
From 2002 to 2005, scientists discovered that the crust began to stir under the Tianchi Lake in Changbai Mountain, and earthquakes occurred frequently. On some days, the number of earthquakes exceeded 100 per day, with the maximum magnitude reaching 3.7 and the focal depth of only 5 km, as if magma was stirring in the dark. Not only that, scientists also observed that the ground was slightly uplifted, indicating that pressure was accumulating under the surface. The temperature under Tianchi Lake has risen by nearly 30 degrees in the past 10 years. Occasionally, trace amounts of sulfur dioxide gas are detected in the soil and rock cracks around the crater - this is a sign of magma activity!
Although after a period of day and night monitoring, scientists concluded that the risk of eruption is low in the short term. But this does not mean that it is safe.
In 2010, Korean scientists published an article in the journal Science stating that Changbai Mountain showed signs of activity in June 2010, suspecting that the crust under Changbai Mountain had partially melted, which could lead to a major eruption.
How could this be? So in 2011, North Korea rarely opened its borders and invited international experts, including Clive Oppenheimer, a volcanologist at Cambridge University, James Hammond, a seismologist at the University of London, and Kayla Iacovino, an American geologist, to go deep into Changbai Mountain to study the secrets of this volcano. They found that Changbai Mountain seemed to be a volcano that should not exist. Iacovino even lamented that "the origin of Changbai Mountain is one of its biggest secrets."
Why did Iacovino say that?
Mysterious and unique Changbai Mountain
It turns out that Changbai Mountain is not where a volcano should be. Most active volcanoes are distributed at the junction of plates - the Pacific Ring of Fire, the East African Rift Valley, the Apennine Orogenic Belt in Italy... There, rock layers collide and the crust breaks, and magma can find an outlet.
But Changbai Mountain is different. It stands quietly in the stable core of the Asian continental craton, far away from any active faults and plate boundaries. The surrounding crust is more than 40 kilometers thick. It is conceivable that magma should not be able to break through such a hard underground.
So, how could it become one of the most dangerous active volcanoes in the world? This is a mystery that even geologists are still arguing about.
One theory holds that the birth of Changbai Mountain came from a "hot column" (mantle plume) deep in the mantle, that is, a hot gas column rising from the core of the earth, penetrating the crust like a gas jet, and injecting underground molten rock into the surface. This mantle plume theory explains the existence of volcanoes in the Hawaiian Islands and Iceland, and may also be the source of the "fire" of Changbai Mountain.
But some scholars have different views. They suspect that when the Pacific plate subducted tens of millions of years ago, some plate fragments were stranded at the bottom of the mantle and became a "melting trap".
The remains of these ancient plates, like time bombs, slowly released heat and gas, and eventually accumulated pressure deep in the crust, forming today's Changbai Mountain.
However, these are all speculations, and the scientific community has not reached a conclusion. Such uncertain causes have also created the extremely unique volcanic properties of Changbai Mountain.
Its magma is not basalt with strong fluidity, but rhyolite with high silicon content, which is like thick syrup, difficult to flow, but can accumulate extremely high pressure. According to the analysis of volcanic rock samples, the silica content in Changbai Mountain magma is as high as more than 70%, and it is also rich in volatile gases such as carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide.
This means: it will not flow quietly, but explode violently. Like a pressure cooker that cannot be deflated, as long as the crust is slightly broken, explosive eruption will be the only outlet.
Moreover, in the international cooperation we mentioned earlier in 2011, Clive Oppenheimer and other international experts conducted in-depth research on the underground structure of Changbai Mountain and found that the Changbai Mountain magma system is very unique, and the magma reservoir is divided into multiple layers, up to 60 kilometers deep, and directly connected to the mantle. Some of the shallow magma areas have already been partially melted, just like the dam mouth of an underground reservoir that is about to overflow, with the possibility of eruption at any time.
This structure of deep heat and gas pressure makes the volcanic activity of Changbai Mountain particularly difficult to predict. It does not have regular foreshocks like Mount Fuji, nor does it have obvious surface cracks like Iceland. Instead, it is like a lurking maze, and no one knows in which channel the pressure will get out of control and burst.
All this has led experts to reach a consensus: the real danger of the Changbai Mountain volcano comes not only from its scale, but also from its "unpredictability" and "atypicality". It is not in the disaster model we are familiar with. It has been silent for a thousand years. It does not issue warnings like other volcanoes.
But what we know is that the magma is heating up, the gas is accumulating, the crust is slightly uplifting, and the concerns of Hiromitsu Taniguchi, professor emeritus of Tohoku University in Japan, in 2012. He said that due to the impact of the 311 earthquake in Japan, the probability of Changbai Mountain erupting before 2019 is 68%, and the probability of erupting before 2032 is as high as 99%...
Fortunately, we spent 2019 safely, but in 2021, the crustal movement of Changbai Mountain was abnormal again, with an average of 46 earthquakes per month and the highest magnitude reaching 3.1.
The hearts of geological experts were raised to their throats again. After all, if Changbai Mountain really erupts, the 3 million North Korean residents nearby will be directly affected, and the disaster film "Peninsula Disaster" shot in South Korea will be staged in reality. Northeast China, South Korea, and Japan may be covered in volcanic ash...
Speaking of this, my heart is really full of emotion. Changbai Mountain has a beautiful scenery like a fairyland on earth, but under Tianchi there is an amazing crisis hidden, and all humans can do is hope that God will be merciful and not let it happen.
Human beings are so insignificant in front of nature. The history of mankind is like a miracle. Perhaps, the mystery left to us by Changbai Mountain is not only when the volcano will wake up, but how we can maintain a humble attitude, respect heaven, and live in harmony with nature.
Well, let's stop here for the mystery of the volcanic eruption of Changbai Mountain. So, do you think Changbai Mountain will erupt again before 2032? Or will it continue to sleep?
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