Direct translation
A decisive battle for Zhongnanhai? Rumors suggest Zhang Youxia and others are dividing Xi's power. The hotly anticipated crown prince has bad news
— A division of labor emerges at the top level: Xi Jinping retains the presidency, while Cai Qi takes center stage.
Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor : Fang Xun / https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/0731/2255392.html
After the July 30th Politburo meeting, the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is about to enter a "Beidaihe moment." The internal struggles and compromises during this period will determine the crucial direction of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee in October 2025. Observers point out that since the CCP announced the establishment of the "Party Central Committee Decision-making and Coordination Body" at the end of June, the top leadership structure has undergone profound changes: a clear division of power has emerged between Xi Jinping, Zhang Youxia, Cai Qi, and Li Qiang, while Xi himself now plays almost solely a ceremonial role as "President."
The composition of this coordination body has not been made public, and it has been interpreted by the outside world as a tailor-made arrangement by the veterans for the "Xi power transition." Commentator Li Dayu believes that since its establishment, top-level operations have become significantly more structured, and the actual division of labor has become clear: Zhang Youxia will control military affairs, Cai Qi will be responsible for party affairs, and Li Qiang will be responsible for the State Council and the economy. Xi Jinping will retain only the title of President, attending ceremonial events such as foreign affairs and signing congratulatory letters. The other three have fully shared their original powers.
Cai Qi has frequently appeared in public, participating in matters that should have been handled by the General Secretary. On 7 July 2025, at the commemoration of the July 7 Incident, Cai Qi, in his capacity as Secretary of the Central Secretariat, attended and addressed the event, canceling Xi Jinping's planned attendance. At the National Spiritual Civilization Commendation Conference at the end of May, traditionally attended by the General Secretary, Cai Qi took over this year, taking the center stage. This change is seen as a sign that he has assumed some of the General Secretary's powers. Although Cai Qi's health and perceived personality issues have made him difficult to convince the public, Li Dayu believes he is more likely a "transitional role."
In contrast, Li Qiang's recent activity has been frequent, leading some to believe he has received signals of succession. On 28 July 2025, the People's Daily published a front-page article on disaster relief. The first paragraph quoted Xi Jinping's speech, but the end included Li Qiang's comments, a rare omission. Li Qiang's presence has often been omitted from similar articles. On 6 and 7 July 2025, Li Qiang attended the BRICS summit on Xi Jinping's behalf. On 19 July 2025, Li Qiang attended the groundbreaking ceremony for the Yaxia Hydropower Station alone, with none of the other seven members of the Standing Committee present.
Former CCP official and Australian commentator Jiang Wangzheng revealed that Li Qiang is "Xi Jinping's most trusted person" and has received endorsements from the veterans, making him a likely candidate for the "power transfer" based on the party's consensus.
However, negative news has emerged regarding another "favoured successor," Ding Xuexiang. Jiang Wangzheng revealed that after Xu Shaodong, president of the Nantong Chamber of Commerce in Jiangsu, was detained on 26 July 2025, Ding Xuexiang's father, brother, and brother-in-law were all restricted from leaving Nantong. Commentator Li Muyang noted that collusion between officials and businessmen is widespread within the CCP system, and the restrictions on Ding Xuexiang's family may signal that Ding is under investigation. Ding Xuexiang, a core confidant of Xi Jinping who holds significant power in propaganda and government affairs, is now facing a crisis, suggesting that Xi Jinping's position has declined significantly.
After the Politburo meeting on 30 July 2025, the CCP will enter the Beidaihe conclave. This annual "secret high-level meeting" is not only a venue for power struggles and the allocation of benefits between incumbents and veterans, but also often determines key personnel and future direction. If this high-level division of labour is established, it will represent a major turning point for China's future political landscape.
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