Zhang Youxia Incident points directly to Xi Jinping's pursuit of a fourth term

 Direct translation

"Old Goat" disobeys! Zhang Youxia Incident points directly to Xi Jinping's pursuit of a fourth term; Former CIA Analyst reveals Inside Story

Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor : Zhongkang / https://www.aboluowang.com/2026/0129/2341307.html

Dennis Wilder (@dennisw5), a former CIA China analyst and current senior fellow at Georgetown University, raised a new point of interest in an interview with Bloomberg: the Zhang Youxia case may be directly related to Xi Jinping's pursuit of a fourth term. He described Zhang as a "tough, unyielding old military leader," calling him an "old goat," and emphasized that although Zhang had allied with Xi, he never truly became Xi's subordinate. He also warned that given the CIA's ongoing recruitment advertisements, this incident could lead to more people within the CCP system serving the US.

American commentator Heng He believes this is a milestone in the CCP's collapse. Xi Jinping's power is unchallenged, but his prestige has plummeted. This "power without authority" is extremely dangerous because attacks will come from unpredictable directions, and the extreme concentration of power precisely indicates systemic failure. He bluntly stated that this is the prelude to the dynasty's demise; arresting Zhang Youxia is tantamount to cutting off the last force within the party attempting to stop Xi Jinping and "save the CCP." When reform completely fails, abandoning the CCP becomes the only way out.

Wu Zuolai, a Chinese writer in exile in the United States, analyzed in an article published on Taiwan's Central Broadcasting Corporation that the conflict between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping has developed into an irreconcilable one, with its core issues concentrated on six levels. First, regarding the personnel arrangements surrounding the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping must have complete control over the military, and Zhang Youxia's influence within the military is comparable to Xi's, objectively creating a check and balance and hindering his comprehensive deployment. Second, Zhang Youxia's long-standing refusal to publicly express support for the "Chairman of the Central Military Commission's responsibility system," coupled with the shadow of veterans and reformists behind him, directly threatens Xi Jinping's political security in his view. Third, external events have exacerbated Xi Jinping's fear of "betrayal," worrying about potential defections within the military at crucial moments. Fourth, Zhang Youxia's lack of active cooperation in initiating war contradicts Xi Jinping's will to resolve internal and external crises through war. Fifth, the recent intensive exposure of corruption allegations against the Xi family has made Xi Jinping feel the real risk of being "forced to step down." Sixth, the tightening international environment and increasing pressure for transparency in high-level wealth further amplify his insecurity.

Wu Zuolai concludes that against the backdrop of economic downturn and the potential for martial law, complete control of the military has become Xi Jinping's only means of self-preservation. However, three major uncertainties remain to be seen: Will the military purge trigger a backlash and confrontation? Can Xi Jinping quickly reorganize the top leadership to put the military in a state of war at any time? Will the CCP system accelerate its "North Korean-like" transformation?