Direct translation
Iran may not receive its "transit fees"! Bloomberg succinctly points out Holmz's crux of the matter
Image : Bloomberg stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not only never return to its pre-war status as a vital part of the global economy, but its influence will also gradually diminish. (Reuters)
Iran's control over global energy will gradually diminish, Bloomberg columnist Blas points out. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway carrying one-fifth of the world's oil and gas transport, has changed from free passage to a "controlled waterway." However, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other countries accelerating the expansion of bypass pipelines, the Strait of Hormuz will not only never return to its pre-war status of paramount importance to the global economy, but its influence will also gradually decline.
The US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire agreement on Tuesday night, pausing the six-week-long conflict. However, in his latest article, Blas points out that this confrontation, widely known as the "Homuz War," has destabilized one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipping routes. Although the ceasefire agreement has been implemented, the future status of the strait remains undecided, and the uncertainty in the oil and gas market has not dissipated.
Blas points out that regardless of how the ceasefire statement from the U.S. and Iran is interpreted, one point is undeniable: the status of the Strait of Hormuz has changed. This waterway, once freely navigable before the war, is now at least a controlled route. As of Wednesday morning, few ships were crossing the strait, and Tehran's message was clear: passage requires Iranian permission.
While Trump insisted on "full, immediate, and secure" navigation through the strait, he simultaneously retweeted an Iranian statement on social media claiming that passage would currently be restricted and under the control of the Iranian military. This contradictory stance reflects the fundamental tension between the demands of both sides at the negotiating table.
Blas points out that this seemingly contradictory wording is precisely a manifestation of diplomatic art; the cost can be replaced with a politically acceptable name, such as "pilotage service fee" or "oil spill prevention fee." Iran can get what it wants on paper, but in reality, if most ships divert to Omani waters, Tehran may receive nothing.
Blas emphasizes that for Iran, retaining some control over the strait is crucial, as it will strengthen its deterrent against future attacks from Israel and the United States. But the more profound impact lies in the fact that the past six weeks have been a practical lesson in energy geopolitics, giving Iran a completely new understanding of its own strategic strength.
The report points out that Iran previously assumed the Strait of Hormuz gave it leverage to influence the international economy, but its actual effectiveness was never tested. Now, Tehran knows whether it can close the strait in wartime, how long it can hold out, how the U.S. and the international community will respond, and how the oil and gas markets will react. These are answers that no negotiation can erase.
Blas also points out that Iran's neighbours have also learned key geopolitical lessons from this conflict, which will gradually erode Tehran's strategic advantage. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already circumvented this choke point to some extent through their respective bypass pipelines, and both countries will almost certainly further expand these emergency pipelines. Kuwait may also join forces with Saudi Arabia to build its own bypass pipeline; Iraq, despite its limited resources, has a strong incentive to rebuild its old strategic pipeline through Turkey to the Mediterranean.
Blas concludes that Iran’s control over energy supplies will loosen over time, and in five years, the Persian Gulf will have far more sophisticated bypass options than it has today. Regardless of what agreement the U.S. and Iran reach on the future of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic importance of the strait has changed, and it will never again be as crucial to the global economy as it was when the fighting broke out six weeks ago.
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