Ishiba Shigeru as Japanese PM; Is the clarion call for the CCP to invade Taiwan sounded?

 Direct translation / Host : Tang Hao, Crossroads of the World / Image : Web Screenshot / https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/24/10/1/n14342112.htm

October 1st marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, and is also the first day that Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba took office. However, Ishiba’s stance on the CCP has been relatively mild in the past. He twice said that the CCP poses “zero threat” to Japan, which triggered concerns from the outside world: Will Shigeru Ishiba change Japan's cross-strait policy after taking office? Coincidentally, after Shigeru Ishiba was elected, the CCP launched public opinion wars, legal wars and missile threats against Taiwan. Does the CCP really think that Japan’s change of prime minister is a good time for them to invade Taiwan? Will Shigeru Ishiba turn pro-CCP? If something happens to Taiwan, will Ishiba Shigeru's cabinet abandon Taiwan?

1 Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba took office on 1 October 2024. Will the balance of relations between the United States, China, Japan and Taiwan tilt towards the CCP? In the past two days, the leader of the Communist Party of China and the Minister of Foreign Affairs suddenly claimed in a high-profile manner that "no one can stop" the reunification of Taiwan. Is the CCP really preparing to accelerate its invasion of Taiwan in 2025? Today, we are going to talk to you about this topic.

As Ishiba Shigeru takes over Japanese Prime Minister, is the clarion call for the CCP to invade Taiwan sounded?

On 27 September 2024, Shigeru Ishiba was officially elected as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, which is equivalent to ascending to the throne of Japan's prime minister. Although Shigeru Ishiba was Japan's Defense Minister, he once said in 2000 and 2014 that the CCP poses "zero threat" to Japan.

In addition, his most respected political mentor is former Japanese Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka. Tanaka is a very famous pro-communist figure, so the outside world is also very worried about whether Japan's diplomatic line will change from the current "pro-communist" after Shigeru Ishiba becomes prime minister. "Beauty in the distance", gradually turning to "beautiful in the distance" or "beautiful in the distance"? Especially when something happens to Taiwan, will Japan still step in to provide support?

The day after Shigeru Ishiba was elected, Chinese Communist Party Foreign Minister Wang Yi unilaterally claimed at the United Nations General Assembly that United Nations Resolution 2758, the Cairo Declaration, and the Potsdam Declaration had clearly returned Taiwan and Penghu, which were stolen by Japan, to the People's Republic of China. Simply put, Taiwan It is the territory of China.

Did you see that? The Chinese Communist Party has introduced their "three-piece package to unify Taiwan" again, which is the United Nations Resolution 2758, the Cairo Declaration, and the Potsdam Declaration. What's in this three-piece set? What are the absurdities and fallacies in the CCP’s reference to this three-piece package? We have already analyzed it in the past, so we won’t repeat it here. You can look for past programs to watch.

However, Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a stern response the next day. They said that only the government elected by the Taiwanese people can represent Taiwan, and asked the CCP to stop misleading the international public. They criticized the CCP's move to use this three-piece package to create legal grounds for future military invasion of Taiwan. Base.

Some people may think that Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs seems to be making a fuss out of a molehill? In fact, no. On the same day, the Chinese Communist Party’s Rocket Force and Army conducted missile shooting drills in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang and other places, and the Taiwan military also monitored them. The next day, September 30, Xi Jinping declared at a reception marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China that "Taiwan is China's sacred territory" and that "no one can stop" the complete reunification of the motherland.

Well, after reading the series of news, we can’t help but ask: Why did the CCP deliberately choose the time when the United Nations General Assembly and Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the new prime minister to openly use legal warfare, public opinion warfare and missiles to intimidate Taiwan? Is the CCP really eager to take advantage of the "2025 window" brought about by the US election to seize Taiwan, as we said last time? Or do they really think that Shigeru Ishiba will support CCP China and leave the United States and let the CCP get whatever it wants?

Shigeru Ishiba’s foreign policy views

So what is Ishiba’s attitude towards the United States, the Chinese Communist Party, and Taiwan? Let’s see what he said. Recently, Shigeru Ishiba shared his foreign policy views with the American think tank Hades Institute. There are several main points:

1. Establishing an “Asian Version of NATO”

First, Shigeru Ishiba advocates the establishment of an "Asian version of NATO". He said, "Today's Ukraine is tomorrow's Asia." It just changed from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the CCP's invasion of Taiwan. However, Asia currently lacks a collective defense organization like NATO. Once a war breaks out in Asia, countries will not have the responsibility to defend each other. Therefore, he believes that establishing an Asian version of NATO with Western allies is the most important means to deter the CCP.

2. The Asian version of NATO will deploy nuclear weapons

Second, the Asian version of NATO will deploy nuclear weapons. Ishiba believes that Russia and North Korea have established a military alliance, and nuclear weapons technology may be being transferred to North Korea. If the Chinese Communist Party’s nuclear weapons also join, the United States’ current Asia-Pacific deterrence strategy will be limited, so nuclear weapons must be deployed to counter it.

3. In the Japan-U.S. security alliance, Japan will become an “equal partner”

Third, the security alliance between Japan and the United States must become "equal partners." Shigeru Ishiba said that the current Japan-US security treaty obliges the United States to protect Japan and Japan is obliged to provide bases to the United States. However, he hopes that Japan can cooperate with the United States on a reciprocal basis as a normal country and also allow the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to station in Guam.

Well, judging from Shigeru Ishiba's arguments, we can probably find a few things: First, he, like Abe and Fumio Kishida, is a leader who wants to lead Japan out of the pacifist constitution and towards a normalized country. He also further hopes that Japan can cooperate with the United States with an equal international status, rather than "singing beautiful songs and following Japan" and being a follower. Whether the United States can agree to this is one thing, but it at least reflects that as the new prime minister, he does need to talk about some more structured and ambitious ideals.

Secondly, he is very clear that the biggest threat to Japan and all of Asia is the Chinese Communist Party, along with Russia and North Korea. Therefore, he called for the establishment of an "Asian version of NATO" to gather the power of various medium-sized countries in Asia to deter the joint threat of China and Russia, the two military powers. Especially in the past month or so, the Chinese Communist Party and Russian military aircraft have successively broken into Japanese airspace, posing an immediate threat to Japan; and Chinese Communist ships have also continued to enter the waters of the Diaoyu Islands. Therefore, Ishiba Shigeru’s major threat to national sovereignty is the Chinese Communist Party.

Also, Shigeru Ishiba knew the importance and danger of Taiwan, but he did not want to close the possibility of dialogue with the CCP. Therefore, he did not explicitly say whether he would support Taiwan or whether he would help defend Taiwan. However, he called for the formation of an Asian version of NATO to deter the CCP from invading Taiwan.

However, it is very difficult to establish an Asian version of NATO, and when he visited Taiwan in August this year, he was very cautious in his remarks about Taiwan. When he was asked by the media, if a war broke out across the Taiwan Strait, would Japan help defend Taiwan? His answer turned out to be "It's not convenient to answer here." Ishiba was also criticized for being "afraid of offending the CCP" and "sending a wrong signal to the CCP's crimes against Taiwan."

Well, after reading this, we can find that Shigeru Ishiba is a politician with "Japanese core values". This is beyond reproach. As for whether he will help defend Taiwan? Will it turn pro-communist? Let me make a conclusion first: to defend Japan, we must first defend Taiwan. Ishiba can only actively or passively support Taiwan, or even help defend Taiwan. Why?

Five major factors: To defend Japan, we must first defend Taiwan

We have just mentioned that if you want to defend Japan, you must first defend Taiwan. There are several important internal and external factors that will make Ishiba Shigeru continue to be "pro-American and friendly to Taiwan" and will make it difficult for him to switch to "pro-China and separation from the United States". on the road to:

Reason 1: If Taiwan falls, Japan will become a hostage or puppet

The first reason is that if something happens to Taiwan, something will happen to Japan. Once Taiwan falls, Japan will become a hostage or puppet of the CCP. As we all know, Japan relies on imports for a large amount of oil and raw materials, and these goods must be transported through the Taiwan Strait. If the CCP controls Taiwan, it will definitely turn the Taiwan Strait into an inland sea and use its navy to block the right of passage in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters. This threatens Japan to cooperate with the CCP.

At that time, Japan will be in a dilemma of running out of food, oil, and goods, and will have to become a hostage of the CCP.

Reason 2: If Taiwan is lost, Okinawa will be lost

Second, if Taiwan is lost, Okinawa will be lost. As we all know, the CCP has been wooing Okinawa for many years. It not only sends a large number of tourists to Okinawa to fight for the economy, but also welcomes the governor of Okinawa to visit China in a high-profile manner. Chinese netizens also clamored that "Ryukyu should be independent." Furthermore, last year, Xi Jinping deliberately talked about the historical relationship between China and Ryukyu in a high-profile manner, saying that Ryukyu used to be a vassal state of China. These measures are actually the CCP's deliberate incitement to "Okinawa independence." Why?

On the one hand, the CCP wants to use "Okinawa independence" to hold Japan back, so that Japan does not dare to support Taiwan too much against the CCP; on the other hand, the CCP is preparing to incite Ryukyu independence after seizing Taiwan, and even join the CCP's protective circle so that the CCP can completely control the Miyako Strait from the Pacific to Northeast Asia, monopolize control of Northeast Asia, and allow the CCP to develop from a land power to a sea power.

Reason 3: The U.S.-Japan alliance remains unchanged and the U.S. resistance to communism remains unchanged

Third, the U.S.-Japan alliance will not change, the U.S.’s confrontation with the CCP will not change, and Japan cannot change either. Japan's armed forces are not enough to fight against the three rogue countries of China, Russia and North Korea, so it must need the security umbrella of the United States. However, no matter whether Harris is elected or Trump is elected next, the general direction of the United States in confronting the CCP politically, economically, and militarily will not change. Therefore, Japan must also actively or passively "pro-US and far away".

Of course, facing a "negotiable" leader like Shigeru Ishiba, the CCP is likely to use the rhetoric of "you want strategic independence" to coax Japan not to follow the United States. Last year, Xi Jinping used this trick to convince French President Macron to be fooled. Later, Macron was surrounded and suppressed by European countries, saying that he was "isolating himself" and "weakening Europe." I believe Ishiba will also remember this lesson.

Reason 4: Japanese public opinion is highly anti-communist and the Prime Minister cannot disobey them

The fourth reason is that Japanese public opinion is highly anti-communist and the prime minister cannot disobey the people. According to a poll conducted by the "Yomiuri Shimbun" this year, as many as 92% of Japanese people believe that the CCP is a security threat to Japan, an increase of 6% from a year ago; in addition, the rate of Japanese people having a bad impression of China has also exceeded 92%. Therefore, even the Prime Minister of Japan cannot insist on going against the will of public opinion, otherwise he will suffer a counterattack from public opinion within the party and at home.

Reason 5: China’s economic decline leads to counter-espionage and xenophobia, Japanese companies are at high risk

The last reason is that China's economy is in decline and it is engaged in counter-espionage and xenophobia. Japanese companies are not only unprofitable, but also extremely risky.

As you all know, although the CCP has launched a series of rescue measures in the past two days to stimulate the economy, and the Shanghai stock market has also risen for several days, these are actually the CCP's "National Day fireworks", dazzling and short-lived, expensive and fragile, and no one Optimistic about the prospects of China's economy. For example, China's latest September PMI, the official number has been falsified, and it only dares to give 49.8, which reflects that China's manufacturing industry has shrunk for five consecutive months.

Why is the manufacturing industry shrinking? Because consumer demand is sluggish and no one dares to invest, China is now entering a vicious cycle of deflation, and deflation is one of the most difficult problems in economics to solve. Therefore, even if Shigeru Ishiba wants to develop the economy and be on good terms with the CCP, entering China now will not only trap him, but may also cause more unnecessary harm to Japanese companies and people.

Well, we can find that there are too many internal and external factors that will force Ishiba's cabinet to be "pro-American and friendly to Taiyuan and China." Although Ishiba may have some dialogue or contact with the CCP, Sino-Japanese relations will not improve much because the CCP will continue to be the biggest threat to Asia-Pacific countries.