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Commentator : Wang Dan / Editor : Li Guangsong / Source : Dialogue with China Think Tank / https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/1205/2140254.html / Image : The political participation of young Chinese people is extremely low, and they have a serious lack of confidence in the system. This phenomenon is very similar to the social sentiment before the collapse of the Soviet Union. (Photo: Associated Press)
China's economy has experienced long-term high-speed growth since the reform and opening up, but it has faced unprecedented challenges in recent years. In recent days, the Chinese government has held economic stimulus press conferences one after another, but has not announced specific economic stimulus plans or measures, which has triggered heated discussions and speculations from the outside world. China's economic problems are not limited to slowing growth, but a deeper structural crisis. From unemployment to weak consumption, these problems can't help but remind people of the difficulties experienced by the Soviet Union before its collapse. Is China also heading towards the "former Soviet trap"?
There are many reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and one of the key factors is the depletion of fiscal resources. When fiscal pressure continued to increase, the Soviet leadership tried to overcome the difficulties by saving and increasing production, but ignored the problems inherent in the system. Soviet leader Andropov once implemented strict austerity measures, requiring workers to extend working hours and cut material distribution in an attempt to save the economy. However, these policies not only failed to revitalize the economy, but also exacerbated the public's distrust of the government, and social dissatisfaction gradually accumulated, eventually leading to the collapse of the system.
Similar to the Soviet Union, China is currently facing fiscal pressure and internal contradictions. The Chinese government tried to save the economy by large-scale infrastructure and stimulating consumption, but the effect was limited. Since the high growth of the past few decades relied on the expansion of exports and the real estate market, when these engines stagnated, the problem of insufficient domestic consumption was exposed. This is exactly the same as the situation in the late Soviet Union, when the economy was overly dependent on resource exports. When global market demand fell, the domestic economy lost momentum. As early as when Li Keqiang was the prime minister, the Chinese government proposed to save spending, showing the anxiety after falling into the "former Soviet trap". Not long ago, some local governments were reported to "sell everything" in order to save the local economy, further confirming that China has embarked on the path of the former Soviet Union.
Another phenomenon that makes China similar to the Soviet Union is the powerlessness of the younger generation. The social atmosphere before the collapse of the Soviet Union was full of anxiety and helplessness about the future. Young people fell into meaningless competition and eventually chose to respond passively or leave the system. Young people in China are also facing a similar dilemma. This state is described as the "lying flat" phenomenon in today's Chinese society. Many young people find that neither their educational background nor their abilities seem to guarantee a stable future, leading them to have deep doubts about the social system.
It is worth noting that this "lying flat" exists not only among ordinary people, but also among middle and lower-level officials. Some middle and lower-level officials chose to slack off because they could not solve practical problems, which aggravated the ineffective operation of the government at the grassroots level, thus further weakening the public's trust in the government.
On the other hand, young people's political participation is extremely low, and their confidence in the system is seriously insufficient. This phenomenon is very similar to the social sentiment before the collapse of the Soviet Union. China's "pan-90s" generation, born between 1985 and 1995, is a young person who grew up in China during a period of rapid economic growth. They have a high level of education, but face extremely limited employment opportunities and housing price pressures, and will have to bear the burden of elderly care and childcare in the future. In such an environment, young people choose to turn their attention to the Internet and relieve stress through Tucao videos and other means. This phenomenon is also similar to the entertainment of society before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
It is worth noting that the unemployment problem not only threatens economic stability, but may also shake the foundation of the political system. Although young people's resistance to the political system is relatively negative at present, it is unknown how long this situation can last. Many turmoil and revolutions in history were triggered by unemployment and economic difficulties. If the government fails to effectively solve people's livelihood problems, young people may turn their dissatisfaction into demands for political reform, thus becoming a force for unrest. As China's society ages, the younger generation will have to bear more and more social burdens, which may eventually overwhelm their patience and confidence. If China fails to provide enough opportunities and outlets for the younger generation, this accumulated dissatisfaction may eventually trigger similar social unrest.
There is no doubt that China today is facing severe economic challenges, which are not just about slowing economic growth, but also about the stability of the entire social structure and political system. The collapse of the Soviet Union provides a warning for China today that when the government fails to effectively solve economic and livelihood problems, social dissatisfaction may eventually turn into a challenge to the political system. How to avoid falling into the "former Soviet trap" will be a key test for China's future. This is not a problem that can be solved by "flooding" the stock market.
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