Direct translation
The Hong Kong government can no longer hide the truth! Did over a thousand really die at Hung Fuk Court? The public reveals the most horrifying figure
Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor: Zhongkang / https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/1206/2316280.html
The Hung Fook Court fire has sparked controversy surrounding the highest death toll in Hong Kong's history. Reports, in particular, indicate that the victims included children, the youngest being only one year old, a heartbreaking fact. While the official death toll remains at 159, public estimates and online surveys suggest the actual death toll may be over 1,500, drawing widespread attention and debate.
According to Taiwan's Newtalk, based on analysis by netizens and researchers, the 31-story buildings in Block 7 of Hung Fook Court used flammable expanding foam for window sealing and mesh panels. Combined with a malfunctioning fire alarm, the fire spread rapidly through a vertical chimney effect, leaving residents only about five minutes to escape. The estimated population of the affected buildings exceeds 2,600. Comparing the death rates of similar fires in history, experts estimate the actual death toll to be at least between 780 and 1,300.
Aboluowang commentator Wang Duran analyzed the fire and found that the seven buildings in Hung Fook Court affected by the fire had approximately 2,000 units (official data ranges from 1,750 to 1,984, but the general consensus is around 2,000). The actual occupancy rate in Hong Kong public housing is 2.5 to 4 people per household (including the elderly, multigenerational households, and domestic helpers, taking into account the variations in large families; official figures show an average of only about 2.6 people). Therefore, the actual occupancy of the seven buildings is reasonably estimated to be between 5,000 and 6,000 people, far lower than the absurdly low figure of "2,600 people" claimed by officials or some reports.
Wang Duran further analyzed the fire's lethality: flammable expanding foam, fireproof netting, the effect of a 31-story vertical chimney, and malfunctioning fire alarms throughout the complex, leaving only 5 minutes for escape—this almost replicated the extremely deadly conditions of the 1996 Garley House fire and the 2017 Grenfell Tower fire. Historically, the fatality rate for similar fires in older, high-density residential buildings in Hong Kong has been between 10% and 25%.
Using the most conservative calculation:
5000 people × 60% at home × 10% fatality rate = 300 people (far exceeding the official figure of 159)
5500 people × 65% at home × 15% fatality rate = approximately 536 people
6000 people × 70% at home × 20% fatality rate = approximately 840 people
If the fatality rate reaches the upper limit of 25%, it will directly exceed 1000 people.
Therefore, Wang Duran judges that the actual number of victims in Hung Fuk Yuen is most likely between 800 and 1000, and in extreme cases, it could reach 1200 to 1500. The truth will not be forgotten forever.
The incident also caused a reaction on campus. On 3 December 2025, students at Hong Kong Baptist University posted memorial slogans on the campus democracy wall, calling on the government to respond to the public's demands, but the university subsequently blocked the area with barriers. On 4 December, after the student union posted slogans again, they were also ordered to stop, sparking a discussion on campus about the right to mourn and space for expression.
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