Detailed Analysis
Former U.S. National Security Adviser Bolton' s analysis on facing Chinese Communist Party threat: Showing Weakness Is Provocation
Reporter : Yang Chengyu / https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/4286138 / Image : Former U.S. White House national security adviser Bolton attended the "Taiwan State Affairs Conference at home and abroad" today (29th) and gave a keynote speech on "Taiwan's long-term stability and stability". (Photo by reporter Cong Changjin)
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) China’s threat to the Republic of China (Taiwan) is increasing day by day. Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton believes that Taiwan’s U.S. security team must conduct a deeper and broader “strategic dialogue”; in the face of China’s threat, show strength is definitely not a provocation, "showing weakness is a provocation." Bolton also said that publishing how China treats its own people is definitely more lethal than weapons; Taiwan, as a well-functioning democratic country, also has freedom of the press, so it is the best medium. He also said humorously, "I was almost trampled by the reporters just now, they are really full of energy!"
On 29 April 2023, the World Taiwanese Congress and the Taiwan National Alliance held the "12th Taiwan National Affairs Conference at home and abroad", focusing on "strengthening democratic resilience and defending the local regime", and invited Bolton to give a keynote speech on "Taiwan's long-term stability" . Afterwards, Bolton had a conversation with Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Luo Zhizheng and Taiwanese Public Affairs Association (FAPA) CEO Coen Blaauw on the topic "The Decisive Battle Between Totalitarianism and Democracy." President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Qingde both delivered written congratulatory speeches, and Xu Jiaqing, chairman of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Committee, delivered speeches in person. Reporters swarmed after the keynote speech, hoping to ask questions about Taiwan-US security issues but Bolton did not respond much.
Bolton pointed out that CCP China has always been an irresponsible actor in the international arena. It not only adopts mercantilism policies in international organizations that should uphold free trade, but also uses various forces to build hegemony around them. , and ultimately to dominate the world. And Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin reflect a new era in which we are living. Beijing and Moscow formed the "New Axis" (New Axis), and colluded with other rogue countries such as North Korea, Iran, Belarus, etc., putting the whole world at risk. The United States must wake up from the dream of "the end of history", not only on political and military issues, but also on social and economic issues.
Bolton said the threats facing the 21st century were "existential" for the United States. Previously, this type of threat was aimed at Taiwan's independence, and it has existed for a long time; CCP China has been targeting Taiwan day and night, and continues to delegitimize Taiwan, such as continuously poaching away Taiwan's diplomatic allies. In addition, China violated the "Sino-British Joint Declaration" to suppress Hong Kong and built a full range of military facilities in Hong Kong, intending to build hegemony in the Indo-Pacific surrounding area and expand to the world. It can be seen that the threat from China is indeed global.
Bolton pointed out that when looking at China's series of threats, including stealing other countries' intellectual property rights to build its own advantages, or going deep into Africa and Latin America's "Belt and Road Initiative", Taiwan is the "central point" (Schwerpunkt, literally translated as "quality heart", German military term). Knowing that Taiwan has been under the threat of China for a long time will help explain it to other countries that feel the threat from China.
Bolton mentioned that he knows that Taiwan is about to hold a presidential election. Many people discuss "Taiwan should not provoke" and "Taiwan should proceed with caution," and the same is true in the United States. However, what really constitutes a "provocation" to China is the existence of Taiwan. Every morning when Taiwan wakes up, China feels offended. Therefore, in the face of China's huge threat, we should not be obsessed with superficial symbols, but must focus on the concrete reality. To maintain independence, you must rely on economic, military, and political power structures, which are far more important than codes.
Bolton recalled that his former boss, former U.S. Secretary of State James A. Baker III, used to keep telling him to "keep your eyes on the prize," which was to maintain freedom in the government of Taiwan. However, certain rhetoric not only fails to solve the problem, but also fails to protect Taiwan. He cited the "one-China policy" of the United States as an example. China has greatly distorted the original meaning of the "Shanghai Communiqué." However, many Americans do not understand the rationale when talking about the "one-China policy" and fall into the Chinese interpretation.
Bolton emphasized that the key is not to find the right words, but to find the correct military configuration and allies for Taiwan to maintain the status quo, and use this military power to reduce the possibility of China launching "hostile actions" and strengthen the spirit Taiwan believes in. Bolton pointed out that building Taiwan's military power is not a provocation, nor is a show of strength a provocation. The real provocation is a show of weakness. This is exactly what Taiwan must do its best to avoid.
Bolton shared that many Americans originally thought that Ukraine would not stand up and fight, after all, it used to be a part of Russia; however, the Ukrainians not only stood up to fight, but also showed their tactics, morale and high efficiency. Likewise, it is therefore crucial for Taiwan to demonstrate the will to "fight for Taiwan's independence", and this must be clearly understood by the CCP. Many famous voices in the United States have said that Taiwan only wants to use the support of the United States and has no intention of fighting for itself. This is not true. Because, if CCP China takes military action, Taiwan will definitely say "no".
Bolton said that some people question whether the United States itself is determined enough to be a reliable ally. He knows that there will be such doubts stemming from some things Trump said during his administration and may return to power next year. Although he personally thinks the odds are still low, he also mentioned that Trump would often refer to the tip of a ballpoint pen as Taiwan, and then point to the big table in the presidential office and say, "And this is China." This is Trump's logic. But Bolton emphasized that after all, Trump is a temporary aberration in American politics, and such a view should not appear in the US presidential election in 2024.
Regarding the "strategic autonomy" proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron after his visit to China, Bolton does not believe that this represents a European position, but it highlights that efforts are still needed to maintain Taiwan's global strength and diplomatic relations. The United States must assist Taiwan in countering the Chinese threat around the world. Although it has started now, it has not been fully completed. The United States must catch up with the progress. This is not limited to political or military issues, but CCP's economic misbehavior must also be dealt with. We must also build new deterrence systems before CCP's threats become more concrete, before it is too late.
Bolton said that 23 years ago he advocated that the United States should establish full diplomatic relations with Taiwan. When Taiwan was expelled from the United Nations, the United States proposed "dual recognition" but it was not accepted by both sides. Although a done deal, for the United States, "dual recognition" is still meaningful, and will demonstrate the strength of the US-Taiwan relationship, which will not fade with time. In the absence of formal diplomatic relations, Taiwan and the United States still have a lot to do. Among them, he believes that U.S. and Taiwan officials should conduct a deeper and richer "strategic dialogue", including diplomats, military and intelligence officials. The U.S. and Taiwan national security teams should conduct more in-depth exchanges and coordinate first on contingency plans for actions against China. Through such a discussion "Taiwan can indeed push it a little bit more."
Bolton said we must do more to convince Asian nations that Xi Jinping cannot do it, including more "freedom of navigation" operations in the Taiwan Strait, a clear sign of CCP's repeated attempts to encircle Taiwan, encroach on the Air Identification Zone, and impede activities in international waters Etc. are unacceptable behaviors. In addition, he also hopes that other countries such as the EU will take more actions. Recently, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell called on the European Navy to join the freedom of navigation operation in the Taiwan Strait, which is "a plus."
As long as Taiwan cooperates more closely with other countries on collective security, China will be less likely to launch military action, Bolton said. Among them, he believes that the "Quadruple Security Dialogue" (QUAD) may includen South Korea, that has the opportunity to develop various military and non-military cooperation with Taiwan. Taiwan can consider various self-defense structures and carry out more active activities internationally. If CCP officials sees a string of countries determined not to submit to the Communist hegemony, the less likely they are to take military action.
Bolton emphasized that we have left the "post-Cold War" era, the international situation is changing rapidly, and geopolitical plates around the world are also changing. Taiwan's actions in particular need to keep pace, and must be the top priority of both Taiwan and the United States. Both parties are committed to expanding and strengthening the partnership, and now it is time to do more. In the foreseeable future, we may all face threats of the same level as during the Cold War. Although CCP China is a greater threat than it was then, it depends on our determination and perseverance; when we face higher risks and challenges In reality, strengthening alliances is crucial.
Bolton emphasized that no one wants war, including Taiwan. Showing strength is not provocation, showing weakness is provocation. It is not Taiwan that is threatening the status quo in China's neighborhood, but China. As long as everyone understands that it is safer to communicate with Taiwan, the United States will be safer, and the world will be safer and more peaceful.
Image : Former U.S. National Security Advisor Bolton believes that the Taiwan-U.S. security team must conduct a deeper and broader "strategic dialogue." (Reporter Cong Changjin)
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