Trump's chance of winning rises to 64%? The election swings

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Trump's chance of winning rises to 64%? Statistics guru’s prediction model shows election swings

Reporter : Chen Chengliang / Image : U.S. Democratic Vice President Harris Harris (left) and Republican former President Trump (right). (AFP) / https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4795616

The U.S. presidential election has entered a critical period. The latest prediction model of Nate Silver, a well-known statistician known for his accurate predictions, shows that former President Trump’s probability of winning the electoral vote has increased to 64 %. This prediction is mainly influenced by the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, which shows that Trump is slightly ahead of his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris, indicating that the election is showing signs of a turning point and deserves attention.

In the 2008 U.S. election, Silver became famous for accurately predicting the outcome of the presidential election in 49 of the 50 states, and completely hitting all 35 senator-elects. He is also the author of the book "Accurate Prediction" and a former " Editor-in-Chief of the New York Times FiveThirtyEigh website. His prediction model has received widespread attention for its accuracy.

According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump leads Harris by 1 percentage point. This result also caused Silver's prediction model to make adjustments. He believes that the election situation has changed and Trump won the electoral vote. The probability has increased to 63.8%. Silver's political stance leans liberal but he also emphasizes the objectivity of data analysis.

The New York Times/Siena College poll was one of the few that accurately predicted Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election, and is known as one of the "most accurate polls in the United States."

Fox News reported that Kamala had previously performed well in a number of national and swing state polls. However, the latest poll results showed that Trump had regained lost ground and gained a small lead. Silver believes that the results of this poll confirm his model's judgment that the election situation has changed, and Trump's momentum has indeed picked up.

Polls also show that voters have doubts about the political stances of the two candidates. A New York Times/Sinner College poll found that more voters believe Kamala is "too liberal or progressive" on key policy issues, which may be detrimental to her appeal to middle-of-the-road voters. In comparison, fewer voters think Trump is "too conservative," which shows that Trump has more solid support among conservative voters.

According to Silver's predictive model, Kamala Harris has only a 36 percent chance of winning the electoral vote. Although Schiffer's national poll average shows her leading Trump by 2.5 percentage points, the outcome of the electoral votes depends on the votes obtained in each state. Her lead in many key swing states has gradually narrowed, and the election has become a stalemate. Subsequent development deserves continued attention.

It is worth noting that Silver also mentioned that the upcoming debate will be a key opportunity for Kamala to reverse the election. If she performs well in the debate, it may help her boost her momentum and resolve voters' doubts about her political stance. However, Silver also pointed out that the election situation in key swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania is still full of challenges for her, and the future election development is full of uncertainty.

In addition, Silver also analyzed the impact of the selection of Kamala Harris's deputy. He believes that by choosing Tim Walz instead of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, she may have missed an opportunity to show favour to the median voters and also confused some voters about her political stance.

Image : Nate Silver, master forecaster and author of "Precision Forecasting". (Taken from X platform)