Suspected split at the top of the CCP
Original title: As the Ukraine crisis evolves, the top CCP seems to show signs of splitting
With the evolution of the Ukraine crisis, a series of incidents have made the outside world feel that the CCP's top leadership seems to have misjudged the situation and was dragged into a chariot by Putin, which has led to a dilemma, leading to more signs of division within the CCP.
According to an article published on Thursday (3 March 2022) by Katsuji Nakazawa, a senior reporter for the Nikkei Asian Review, the gossip about the atmosphere of the discussions in Zhongnanhai is that "collective leadership may make a comeback due to the Ukraine issue".
"Collective leadership" is the governance model of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CPC in the past Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao eras.
The failure of the CCP’s foreign and security policies may affect the power of the Politburo Standing Committee and make way for policy changes in economic and other important affairs, Zhongze Keji said. If this happens, it will affect the domestic political struggle that is taking shape ahead of the party's next national congress.
News (12)
South China Sea secret meeting over Ukraine crisis for more than a week
During the Beijing Winter Olympics in February, the top Chinese leader disappeared from the news for a week.
Seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee met secretly in Zhongnanhai to discuss every aspect of the situation in Ukraine and how Beijing could respond, The Wall Street Journal, the first report citing people familiar with the matter, said.
The content of the meeting is confidential and cannot be known to the outside world. Nikkei's Katsuji Nakazawa analyzed that it is safe to assume that the current situation is that the top leaders of the CCP still have different opinions on the Ukraine issue, and it is even possible that some members of the Standing Committee question whether it is wise to support Putin's current position.
"The situation has developed to a point that China does not want to see, which is not in the interests of any party," Zhang Jun, China's ambassador to the United Nations, said at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on Monday (28 February 2022) dealing with the Ukraine issue.
Katsuji Nakazawa believes that Zhang Jun's remarks may reflect the opposition of the top CCP on the Ukraine issue, because Beijing now has to pay a heavy price for its pro-Moscow stance, especially for its projection to the world on February 4. image of fighting side by side with Russia.
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Holding together to warm up Beijing has always refused to criticize Russia
On 4 February, the opening day of the Olympics, Putin visited Beijing and joined Chinese President Xi Jinping to speak out against any expansion of NATO. Putin is the only major power leader to visit Beijing for the Olympics.
After Beijing's Winter Olympics flame was extinguished, Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.
Subsequently, a series of incidents made the outside world feel that the Chinese authorities seemed to endorse Putin's actions. The CCP strictly controls domestic media coverage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and reports can only focus on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
Chinese state media uniformly use the term Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine instead of "war" or "invasion." The CCTV news network of the Communist Party of China still used the term "Russian special military operation" when it broadcasted the Russian-Ukrainian war on February 28.
China’s foreign ministry has expressed support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity while refusing to criticize Russia. Even for the 6,000 Chinese stranded in Ukraine, the evacuation operations are far behind Asian countries or regions such as India, Singapore and Taiwan.
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The CCP had hoped that the Ukraine crisis would be its boon
Katsuji Nakazawa said that in the political circle of the CCP, there was a view that the Ukraine issue might become a boon. They argue that if the United States and Russia collide in Europe, the ability of the United States to deploy military forces in the Asia-Pacific region will decline, and China can fill the void and offset the United States' Indo-Pacific strategy. One of the elements of America's Asia-Pacific strategy is to prevent China from occupying Taiwan by force.
Zhongze Keji said that at least among Chinese security officials, the majority view is that China will not lose under any circumstances.
But now, the CCP is increasingly worried that its interests will be harmed if it is further dragged into the "Putin Theater".
Chinese think tanks have previously concluded, based on Russian intelligence analysis, that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would flee quickly in the face of Russia's overwhelming military power. Furthermore, they believed that the Ukrainian army would surrender and the fighting would be over in a few days.
Ukraine's stubborn resistance has made the war go on for a week, and there is no sign of an end in sight. At the same time, the almost one-sided sanctions from the international community have put pressure on both China and Russia.
News (15)
The story behind the Sino-Russian "side by side" joint statement
The Wall Street Journal quoted Chinese officials and foreign policy advisers on Thursday that the February 4 Sino-Russian joint statement that "the friendship between the two countries has no limit and cooperation has no restricted areas" was suggested by the Chinese side, and the statement reflected Xi Jinping's personal strategy and vision to win over Russia and confront the United States.
Beijing has been deliberating on this statement for nearly half a year. In internal meetings over the past year, Xi Jinping has emphasized that the United States is the biggest threat to China's interests, focusing foreign policy on an alliance with Russia to counter Washington.
The sources said Beijing was doing this not so much to announce that China would stand with Russia in a war situation, but to send a strong message to the United States that the two countries were facing what they believed to be the Resolve in the face of a growing U.S. threat.
The people also said Beijing's plan did not take into account Moscow's increasingly vehement rhetoric on Ukraine, a scenario that China believes is unlikely even after repeated U.S. intelligence about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The outside world believes that this is a misjudgment of the CCP’s high-level foreign policy, which did not consider the real possibility of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and failed to make corresponding policy hedging.
The U.S. wants Beijing to play a key role in encouraging Putin to reconsider invading Ukraine, Kurt Campbell, senior coordinator for Indo-Pacific policy at the U.S. National Security Council, told a seminar hosted by the German Marshall Fund think tank on Monday but "we believe that they chose not to weigh in ahead of time".
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The situation in Ukraine exacerbates the internal division of the CCP
Zhongze Ke Er believes that the failure of the CCP's foreign and security policy may affect the power of the Politburo Standing Committee, or will affect the domestic political struggle before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October.
Li Linyi, a current affairs commentator, said that misjudging the situation in Ukraine will cause a problem within the party, that is, various opposition factions may question whether Xi Jinping's power should be so great, but the doubts can only be bored in the heart before a climate is formed, because Inside the CCP, there are gang laws and regulations that "arbitrarily discuss the Central Committee", which are easy to be attacked.
"I think it is certain that the CCP will become more and more divided in the future. When dissatisfaction with Xi within the party accumulates to a certain level, there will be a big outbreak," he said. When will the nodes appear."
As to whether the subsequent evolution of the situation in Ukraine may intensify the internal accountability of the CCP, Li Linyi said that Xi has “shrugged off the responsibility” on this issue through the media and the Zhongnanhai meeting in advance, and the responsibility has become a so-called “collective leadership” decision-making.
When the war is over, Xi expects to return to the "one-in-one" state again, with the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the military still under Xi's control.
Pictures of Taipei Songshan Airport
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