Trump's winning rate is 30 percentage points higher, the key to Kamala's defeat is revealed

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Editor : Zhongkang / Source: China Times News Network, The Liberty Times / https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/1022/2119104.html

With only 14 days left before the US presidential election, the British Daily Mail's election prediction model pointed out that Trump's advantage in the Electoral College surpassed Harris by about 30 percentage points. Experts also pointed out that if Kamala wants to win the electoral votes, then winning the popular vote is very important for her.

Many polls pointed out that Trump is gradually catching up with or even surpassing Harris in terms of public support, which has increased his chances of winning. The election model of the Daily Mail and J.L. Partners showed that Trump won in 65.9% of the simulation scenarios. This is a significant jump since the last run of the model last Friday. At that time, Trump won in 61.4% of the simulation scenarios.

Analysts believe that if Kamala wants to win in the swing states and enter the White House, she needs to win a decisive victory in the national popular vote, but based on the current situation, the model shows that the most likely outcome is that Trump sweeps seven key battleground states and is elected president with 312 to 226 electoral votes.

However, this does not mean that Kamala Harris is out of the race. She still has a 34% chance of winning in the simulation model, but the final conclusion of the model is "leaning towards Trump's victory."

This prediction is based on the latest poll data, election results over the past 80 years, and economic statistics.

Callum Hunter, a data scientist at J.L. Partners, pointed out that since last week, Trump's support in national polls has increased, which has a great impact on the election. "According to the results calculated by the model, there is less than a 1% chance that Kamala Harris will lose the popular vote and still win the presidential election. Therefore, if she wants to win the electoral vote, then winning the popular vote is very important to her."

He said, "The latest set of polls is lowering the assumption that Kamala Harris will win the popular vote. As this probability decreases, Trump's chances of winning the electoral college are also increasing."

Forecasts from the US and British media have shown that Trump's support rate has surpassed Kamala Harris.

The Economist's US presidential election prediction model shows that Trump's support rate has surpassed Kamala Harris since August. In the past week, Trump has gained 6 percentage points and now has a 54% chance of returning to the White House. Three new polls, including the Washington Post-George Mason University Schar School of Politics and Policy, the Financial Times and the Economist, all pointed out that Trump is not only in a strong position in the national polls, but more importantly, his polls in key states have also risen slightly, which puts huge pressure on Kamala's team.

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