Direct translation
Control Xi Jinping? Rumour has it that Chen Jining will join Hu Jintao and become the Prime Minister, and Wang Huning will be kicked out
—Jin Xin: Insider: Xi will semi-retire, the number of members of the Politburo Standing Committee will increase to 9
Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor : Fang Xun / https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/0625/2238091.html
Recently, many versions of Xi's successor have been circulated overseas, and Wang Yang, Hu Chunhua, and Ding Xuexiang have all been named.
Su Xiaohe, a Chinese economist and commentator living in the United States, said on his personal channel on the 24th that he heard from Beijing that Xi Jinping will make some moves at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee. It is said that he may announce semi-retirement or one-third retirement, that is, Xi will resign as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and retain the title of President of the State until the 21st National Congress. The power of the Chairman of the Military Commission is already in the hands of Zhang Youxia, and Xi is already a commander without troops in the army. In order to better control Xi Jinping, Hu Jintao does not agree to remove Xi's position as Chairman of the Military Commission, otherwise it would be tantamount to placing Xi Jinping under house arrest.
Zhang Youxia is not only the first vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, but also a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China. As for the other people, Beijing news said that Chen Jining may become the prime minister because he has surrendered to Hu Jintao. Li Qiang will become the chairman of the National People's Congress, and Cai Qi will be the chairman of the CPPCC. Wang Huning will be kicked out.
The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau will increase from 7 to 9 people. Su Xiaohe believes that this latest rumour is more reliable.
Su Xiaohe said that he personally thinks that this news is more in line with common sense, because Zhang Youxia and Hu Jintao cannot completely drive Xi Jinping away. They must safeguard the overall interests of the Communist Party of China. If Xi is also removed from the position of general secretary, it will be a mess.
Su Xiaohe also said that Xi Jinping will not retire until the 21st National Congress, and rumors about the successor to the general secretary have emerged. The more popular candidates for succession are Hu Chunhua, Wang Yang, Chen Jining, Ding Xuexiang and others. He personally thinks that Ding Xuexiang is more likely because he is already a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. Chen Jining is Hu Jintao's man and will take over the post of prime minister. Cai Qi will serve as chairman of the CPPCC, and Wang Huning will be completely kicked out.
Apollo.com commentator Wang Duran believes that these statements are partially out of the consistent operating logic of the Communist Party regime, especially in terms of military power arrangements. There are major doubts. The CCP has announced that a military parade will be held on September 3, and Xi Jinping is still leading the preparations with his original title, indicating that there is no sign of adjustment in his nominal identity as the leader of the country and the army in the near future. The date of the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP has not been announced yet, and any arrangement of "changing the general secretary" is unlikely to be made publicly before the military parade, otherwise it may cause fluctuations in military morale and political shocks.
Regarding the rumor that "Xi Jinping will step down as general secretary and remain as chairman of the CMC", Wang Duran believes that this is contrary to the CCP's basic ruling model of "power comes from the barrel of a gun". Historically, Jiang Zemin still held the chairmanship of the CMC for many years after Hu Jintao took over as party leader, and even rumors of "military mutiny" broke out at one time, reflecting that military power is actually the core power. If Xi is really stripped of his general secretary position but continues to serve as chairman of the CMC, it is not in line with the CCP's usual idea of maintaining stability.
Wang Duran also pointed out that the CCP does have a precedent of "jumping levels for promotion". The CCP often has two precedents of leapfrogging promotions, Deng Xiaoping promoted Zhu Rongji and Jiang Zemin promoted Zeng Qinghong. All of them were only alternate members of the Central Committee, and were promoted to members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in three steps. There was also Hu Jintao's promotion of Li Keqiang to the Standing Committee, and Xi Jinping to the Standing Committee. They all jumped from members of the Central Committee to members of the Political Bureau. This shows that the personnel layout at a critical moment is not in accordance with the routine. If the content such as the expansion of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau from 7 to 9, Li Qiang's transfer to the National People's Congress, Chen Jining's appointment as Premier, and Wang Huning's elimination is true, it means that the internal struggle of the Communist Party of China has reached its limit, and it needs extremely strong political collusion and the support of the elders.
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