A major restructuring of power within the CCP, Xi Jinping's team sidelines

Translation, editing : Gan Yung Chyan， KUCINTA SETIA

A major restructuring of power in Zhongnanhai, Xi Jinping sidelines

Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor: Fang Xun / https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/0603/2227654.html / Image : Web Screenshot

On 29 May 2025, the State Council of the Communist Party of China announced the personnel adjustment of the Taiwan Affairs Office, appointing Zhao Shitong, a former assistant of the International Liaison Department, as deputy director and removing Qiu Kaiming from his post. This move makes two of the three deputy directors of the Taiwan Affairs Office have diplomatic backgrounds, and only Pan Xianzhang is from Fujian. Analysts pointed out that this adjustment reflects the decline of Wang Huning's influence on the Taiwan system, and at the same time, Xi Jinping's dominance in personnel layout is being systematically weakened, marking the acceleration of the power reconstruction within the Communist Party of China and the diplomatic shift of Taiwan Strait policy.

The three deputy directors under the leadership of Song Tao, the current director of the Taiwan Affairs Office, are Pan Xianzhang, Wu Xi and Zhao Shitong. Wu Xi was the director of the Consular Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was known as the "American expert"; Zhao Shitong worked in the International Liaison Department for a long time, focusing on Northeast Asian affairs, and was regarded as a "Japanese expert". This time, Zhao Shitong replaced Qiu Kaiming, and the senior management of the Taiwan Affairs Office showed a pattern dominated by the diplomatic system. Qiu Kaiming, born in 1964, a student of Wang Huning, was the director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center. He was just promoted to deputy director in 2024. At the age of 61, he met the delayed retirement policy, but was dismissed early, which attracted attention from the outside world. Zhao Shitong was an old subordinate of Song Tao when he was in the International Liaison Department, and his appointment was seen as a blessing from Song Tao's power.

Ding Shufan, Honorary Professor of National Chengchi University in Taiwan, said that the Taiwan issue has evolved from a cross-strait affair to a global focus. The 2022 report of Rhodium Group pointed out that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait could cause at least $2 trillion in global economic losses, with high-tech industries bearing the brunt. If other industries are involved, the losses may double. French President Macron's public speech on the Taiwan Strait at the Shangri-La Dialogue further highlighted its internationalization. The CCP introduced officials with diplomatic backgrounds in order to respond to pressure from the United States and Japan through external propaganda and diplomatic lobbying but Ding Shufan bluntly stated that this move would not be able to fundamentally resolve the Taiwan Strait crisis, and "both sides are preparing for the worst."

I analyzed that Zhao Shitong replaced Wang Huning's student Qiu Kaiming, showing that Wang Huning's political layout in the Taiwan system was dismantled. More deeply, Xi Jinping's personnel control is facing a direct challenge. Recently, Tianjin, Shanxi, Hangzhou and other places have successively replaced "non-Xi faction" officials, from Liu Guiping, deputy secretary of the Tianjin Municipal Party Committee, who was personally appointed by Xi in the Organization Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, to Ge Haijiao, Wei Jianfeng and Hu Dapeng, who are across the financial and political and legal systems. Ge Haijiao, formerly chairman of the Bank of China, is now the governor of Shanxi Province. Wei Jianfeng, formerly secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission of the Hunan Provincial Party Committee, is now the secretary of the Hunan Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection and acting director of the Supervisory Commission. Hu Dapeng, formerly deputy governor of Yunnan Province and director of the Public Security Department, has now been promoted to member of the Standing Committee of the Yunnan Provincial Party Committee and secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission, forming a "non-Xi faction" cadre echelon. This shows that the party has started the implicit power decentralization mechanism of "bypassing the general secretary", and the soft landing procedure of the "post-Xi era" has accelerated.

Wang Duran analyzed that Zhao Shitong's airborne transfer to the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council not only weakened Wang Huning's ideological narrative, but also reflected the strengthening of Song Tao's power promoted during the Hu Jintao period. The cooperation between Song Tao and Zhao Shitong symbolizes the CCP's Taiwan Strait policy shifting from ideology to "external propaganda + diplomacy" to deal with the trilateral situation between Taiwan, the United States and Japan.

However, Su Ziyun, Director of the Taiwan National Defense and Security Research Institute, pointed out that the Taiwan Affairs Office is only a "mouthpiece" and the transfer of diplomats is personnel training or tactical adjustment, which is difficult to change the essence of the CCP's suppression of Taiwan. "The core of the Taiwan issue is the struggle between democracy and authoritarianism."

The diplomaticization of the Taiwan Affairs Office is aimed at easing pressure from the United States and Japan. For example, Zhao Shitong may lobby Japan and Wu Xi will deal with the United States, but the effect is limited.

Wang Duran analyzed that the Taiwan Affairs Office is only a policy implementation agency, and strategic decisions are controlled by the Central Leading Group for Taiwan, and Xi Jinping is still the leader in theory. However, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee has been delayed, the Xi Zhongxun Memorial Hall has been renamed, and Zhejiang has frequently seen "non-Xi faction returnees", making the "Xi-led theory" untenable. Wang Huning's "Taiwan Strait narrative" has been abandoned, and the "Xi family army" has collapsed in the local and Taiwan-related system layout. Regardless of who is behind the scenes, the reality is that Wang Huning's "Taiwan Strait narrative" has been abandoned, and the power layout of the "Xi family army" in local and Taiwan-related systems is collapsing. The top leaders of the Communist Party of China are facing a silent but extremely critical power reconstruction.