Research, editing : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington and other experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, foresee a wave beginning to swell in late October 2022, and peaking in late December 2022 or January 2023.
It could kill another 20,500 Americans, according to the IHME.
While the coming wave may be caused by multiple variants, they may start to look increasingly similar as they mutate to become more efficient—and take the same path to achieve it.
The wave may be carried by one variant, Dr. Raj Rajnarayanan, assistant dean of research and associate professor at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Ark., told Fortune this week.
“But if you look closer, they may all have the same set of mutations.”
They may all end up with the same disastrous effect: rendering current covid countermeasures like drugs and vaccines powerless.
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BA.2.75 is no longer a worry
Omicron spawn BA.2.75, dubbed “Centaurus,” seemed like the covi variant to watch this summer—one with the potential to wreak havoc later in the year.
However, Centaurus is no longer a worry, according to Rajnarayanan. Instead, one of its offspring, BA.2.75.2, has outcompeted it, eliminating it as a threat—but replacing it with a more formidable one.
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New variant of concern BA.2.75.2 is picking up mutations, “the most neutralization-resistant variant evaluated to date"
Fauci this week called the BA.2.75.2 variant “suspicious,” in that it has the potential to develop into a variant of concern for the fall.
According to Rajnarayanan’s book, BA.2.75.2 is the most formidable of up-and-coming strain because of its spike protein—a feature that allows it to enter cells—binds more tightly to human cells than that of any other variant. By doing so, it makes it more difficult for antibodies to successfully attack the strain.
The variant is picking up mutations that make it more similar to globally dominant BA.5 and the deadly Delta variant of late 2021, and it is only “a couple of mutations away from picking up increased transmission speed,” Rajnarayanan said.
To make matters worse, the new variant shows “extensive escape” ability, according to a new preprint paper released this week by researchers at the Imperial College in London and the Karolinska Institute in Sweden.
The paper, which is not yet peer reviewed but has been widely cited by experts, called the variant “the most neutralization-resistant variant evaluated to date,” and said it may effectively evade antibody immunity, built by vaccination and prior infection.
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BF.7 a spin-off of Omicron BA.5, is potentially more transmissible
Another major contender: Omicron spawn BF.7. It is a spin-off of globally dominant strain BA.5, three generations removed.
The new subvariant has a change in the spike protein seen in other Omicron strains making headway. It also has a change in the nucleotide sequence—sometimes referred to as the blueprint of an organism—that could cause it to behave differently than other subvariants, Dr. Stuart Ray, vice chair of medicine for data integrity and analytics at Johns Hopkins Department of Medicine, told Fortune this week.
Scientists are taking note of BF.7 because it is making headway in an increasingly crowded field of Omicron subvariants.
“The same growth advantage in multiple countries makes it reasonable to think that BF.7 is gaining a foothold,” and that it is potentially more transmissible than parent BA.5, Ray said.
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BQ.1.1, among other new variants, is competing with BA.2.75.2 to dominate the pandemic
There are more contenders, including BQ.1.1. The variant is jockeying with BA.2.75.2 to lead the wave this fall, Rajnarayanan said.
Major players are beginning to pick up identical advantageous mutations as they try to gain supremacy over their rivals, according to Rajnarayanan. Some mutations offer advantages like increased transmissibility, while others make it more difficult for the human immune system—as well as treatments and vaccines—to fight them off.
It is common for variants to garner multiple mutations—and increasingly, variants of potential concern are acquiring many of the same ones.
“Eventually all variants may look the same at the spike level,” Rajnarayana said.
Variant hunters are also keeping their eye on recombinants—combinations of multiple variants that form “frankenviruses” of sorts.
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Combination of two different Omicron sub-variants identified, XBB, "the most immune evasive yet"
One Rajnarayanan and others are watching is XBB, a combination of two different Omicron spawns. It is not currently a variant of concern in terms of spread but “it’s probably the most immune evasive yet”—even more so than the rising BA.2.75.2, which is more immune evasive than globally dominant BA.5, the most immune evasive until recently.
It is a concerning pattern that has the ability to reduce the effectiveness of anti-covid treatments, as acknowledged by World Health Organization officials last week—and perhaps even vaccines. In a worst-case scenario, increasingly immune-evasive variants could render them ineffective entirely.
BA.2.75.2 is being watched for its potential to escape the immunity provided by the last antibody drug that is effective on all variants, Bebtelovimab, according to Rajnarayanan and other experts. It is administered to those at high risk of serious outcomes from covid.
According to a preprint updated Friday by Richard Cao Yulong, an assistant Professor at Peking University’s Biomedical Pioneering Innovation Center in China, and others, BQ.1.1 beat it to the punch. The variant escapes immunity from Bebtelovimab, as well as another antibody drug that only works against some variants.
“Such rapid and simultaneous emergence of variants with enormous advantages is unprecedented,” Cao and others wrote in the paper.
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Chinese study: Herd immunity and boosters may not protect against new covi strains
It is unknown how well new Omicron boosters will hold up against coming variants but Cao’s paper notes that herd immunity and boosters may not protect against new strains. It urges the rapid development of broader covi vaccines and new antibody drugs, and encourages researchers to test them against recombinants they construct in the lab, in an effort to gauge their effectiveness ahead of time.
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Testing and genetic sequencing of samples must continue
Rajnarayanan worries for the future of covid countermeasures and, like WHO officials, calls on countries to keep up testing and the genetic sequencing of samples. It is the only way to know what is coming, they contend. Ideally, such knowledge will allow researchers to scramble to create new countermeasures, or update old ones, as necessary.
“We used to say we have the tools,” he said. “The tools are getting picked off.”
Ref: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.16.508299v2
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24 mainland provinces "celebrate the festival on the spot" Henan students shout angrily to lift the ban
Reporter : Ruili / https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2022/09/30/a103540136.html / Image : Video Screenshot
Henan:
Henan Zhengzhou University students: "Unblock, unblock, unblock, unblock!"
Student from a university in Zhengzhou, Henan: "Unblock, unblock, unblock, unblock!"
On the evening of September 28, college students from several universities in Zhengzhou, Henan gathered to protest the long-term closure of the school. The students collectively chanted "unblocking", and they questioned why the closure of the school only closed the students, but the teachers were allowed to come and go freely.
Student: "Why can the teacher come out?"
Student: "It's safe for the teacher to go in and out, but it's not safe for us to go in and out, right? Our students carry the virus as soon as they come in?"
Student: "Unblock, unblock, unblock, unblock!"
On the 27th, Zhengzhou University of Finance and Economics in Henan Province, in order to prevent students from fleeing during the lockdown period, even added high-voltage wires to the campus wall; at Taiyuan University of Technology in Shanxi, some students put up banners demanding that the closure be lifted.
Zhengzhou University even requires students to wear masks when entering the "bathroom". Some schools even require masks to be worn at night.
After student protests, some universities are said to have lifted their closures. However, there are still a large number of posts on Weibo calling for the unblocking of students.
Some students called for "unblocking" in their own buildings, prompting the school to consider the students' demands. The school has implemented school closure management since February 2022, and the students have lost their freedom for nearly half a year. It is really "unbearable".
A student from Zhengzhou Vocational College of Information Technology said, "The school has been closed to students for more than a year, and people come in and out every day at the south gate of the school!! It's just that students are not allowed to come out. I don't know the name."
Tianjin:
The recent epidemic in Tianjin has heated up. On 28 September, it was reported on the Internet that Tianjin may be closed on 1 October 2022. On the same day, Tianjin officials refuted the rumour that the closure of the city was a rumour. However, netizens did not pay the bill, saying that the previous "rumours" in Shanghai and Chengdu had come true.
People in Tianjin: "Today is September 29, 2022. This is near Xiaohaiti, located in Hexi District, Tianjin. You can only go in but not go out. Let's take a look. The control is still very strict."
Tianjin woman: "Oh, you are killing me! Oh my god!"
A woman wailed in the deserted night because of the lockdown of the epidemic. Citizens called the 12345 helpline but were told that there were more than 100 people in front.
Phone voice: "You're in the queue, number 165."
Tianjin citizen: "It's broken, it's broken, it's still unsealed, and it ended up being sealed for us."
In the dark night, carts of iron plates are being continuously transported into the residential area.
ust as inhumane sealing and control methods such as welding doors and wire-locked doors continued to explode, detonating public grievances, in the afternoon of 29 September, an official from the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the Chinese Communist Party said in response to questions from the media that "outside locking doors" should not be used for centralized or home isolation.
The news was immediately widely reported by mainland state media. However, netizens were overwhelmingly negative in their comments, so that the authorities quickly pulled Weibo comments on the topic.
The netizen said, "People shouldn't be locked up in the first place. This is a special reminder. It is conceivable how the situation will be."
Kunming:
The epidemic in Kunming, Yunnan has affected colleges and universities, and at least 13 colleges and universities have been closed. The video shows that teachers and students in many schools lined up to do nucleic acid tests.
According to official statistics, since the outbreak of the epidemic on 25 September, 128,000 colleges and universities have been closed and managed, and more than 70,000 people have changed their health codes to "yellow codes".
Due to the ever-increasing scope of control, local tourism operators say that the upcoming 11th holiday will be in vain.
A hotel staff member in Kunming said, "(The control area) changes every day. For example, when we came to work the day before, we were fine. When we came to work that day, we were informed at night that we were not allowed to go out, even those who were inside would not be able to go out. No one from outside can get in."
Seeing that the "November" long holiday is approaching, the epidemic situation in various parts of mainland China is unabated. As of now, at least 24 provinces have asked people to "celebrate the festival locally". The move sparked renewed outrage from the public, who expressed disgust with the authorities' extreme epidemic prevention measures.
Netizens said, "It's not the epidemic that makes people panic, it's prevention and control!"
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