German media: The CCP may lose power and China may disintegrate

Direct translation

Huge impact! "In China, the Communist Party may lose power and the country may disintegrate..." 

Editor: Fang Xun / Source: Deutsche Welle / https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/0825/2094754.html2094754.html

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung published a guest commentary pointing out that China's policy planners underestimated the long-term impact of the one-child policy. China is not only aging before it is getting rich, but also losing in the competition with the United States for global hegemony due to the accelerated population shrinkage.

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung published a guest commentary by Heribert Dieter, a political economist at the Berlin Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) on Saturday, pointing out that China underestimated the long-term consequences of the one-child policy, and the authorities can only watch the population shrink and do nothing.

The commentary, titled "The Chinese will become increasingly lonely," wrote: "China is not only aging before it is getting rich, but also losing in the geopolitical struggle with the United States for global hegemony due to the accelerated population decline."

The United Nations predicted in July 2024 that China's population will decrease from the current approximately 1.4 billion to approximately 640 million in 2100. The author asks: "Will Beijing still have enough military personnel and economic resources to pursue an expansionary foreign policy decades later?"

The article writes that since the three-generation forecast cannot take into account changes in social structure, UN researchers have proposed several different forecasts. The most likely intermediate forecast scenario is that China's population will drop to 638.6 million in 2100, a decrease of more than 780 million people. The less severe forecast is a decrease of about 460 million people to 956.8 million. The most extreme forecast shows that the population will decrease by more than 1 billion, leaving only 412.9 million people.

The author points out that the CCP planners underestimated the long-term impact of the "one-child" policy. "In China, the Communist Party could lose power, the country could disintegrate, or it could open up to immigration."

"Such real and tangible changes are explosive both domestically and foreign. After decades of economic prosperity driven by the one-child policy, China is gradually falling into a vortex of declining expectations. Many people are beginning to lose hope for the future. The largest real estate price bubble in history is seriously affecting the mood of Chinese consumers, and their consumption levels are far lower than during economic expansion."

"Communist planners ignited an economic fireworks display that ultimately proved to be short-lived, while also completely destroying China's traditions. For more than 2,500 years, the flourishing family structure has been the core of citizens' understanding of the world."

"In diplomacy, China has marginalized itself through its population control policies. A country with geopolitical ambitions needs a growing or at least stable population."

The article quoted the United Nations forecast that by 2100, India's population is expected to reach 1.5091 billion, 870 million more than China, making it the most populous country. China's population will then account for only 40% of India's. On the other hand, the U.S. population, which grows mainly through immigration, will reach 421.3 million by the end of the century. The population gap between the U.S. and China will narrow from about 1.1 billion now to about 200 million.

The author believes that China's population shrinkage can be alleviated by large-scale immigration. "From a purely mathematical point of view, the only continent that can provide enough potential immigrants is Africa. However, given the obvious tendency of Chinese politics and society to be racially homogeneous, it seems impossible to get millions of Africans to move to China. The Han people prefer to be alone and will become fewer and fewer."

The commentary concluded: "If current forecasts are to be believed, India and the United States may have already won the competition with China for global dominance. In terms of foreign policy and economy, China will experience a slow and difficult decline."