Translation by : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA
News on CCP and Myanmar
Reporter : Li Yuanming / Editor : Lin Congwen / https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/24/10/24/n14356792.htm / Image : The picture shows a missile launched from the Myanmar military base in Lashio Town, northern Shan State, in the evening of 28 October 2023. Lashio was taken over by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army on 25 July 2024. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)
The civil war in Myanmar continues, with air strikes, explosions, curfews... Since the Battle of Lashio in July, the war situation in Myanmar has undergone major changes. Expert analysis believes that, The CCP is trying to control the balance between the two warring parties, but in the end it may not be able to control the situation.
On 18 October 2024, the Chinese Communist Consulate in Mandalay was attacked by a grenade. The consulate building was slightly damaged but there were no casualties. CCP China made serious representations and urged Myanmar to thoroughly investigate the attack. It was unclear who was responsible for the incident, which Myanmar's military junta and pro-democracy forces quickly condemned.
This incident occurred just as the head of Myanmar's military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, was about to visit Beijing, and a large-scale revolutionary armed resistance was erupting across the country. Kokang Information Network reported that most of the major trade routes between CCP China and Myanmar, as well as the important town of Lashio in northern Shan, have fallen under the control of armed forces of various ethnic groups. The military government continues to launch air strikes in Lashio and other places, causing more than 100 civilian casualties.
On 20 October 2024, a large number of Myanmar refugees ran to the Chinese border checkpoint, trying to enter CCP China. Videos posted online show that the fighting on the Myanmar side is still raging with gunfire everywhere. The CCP border guards closed the Tengchong Dianchi Port, and the refugees later dispersed.
Bloomberg reported that the consulate explosion triggered chaos in Myanmar. For decades, CCP China has sought to maintain influence among lawless ethnic armed groups in Myanmar's border areas while providing support to Myanmar's military leaders. The attack on the Chinese Communist consulate showed that this balancing act is no longer tenable. Both sides are angry about recent actions taken by CCP China under Xi Jinping, who faces a dilemma.
Beijing has recently stepped up public engagement with Myanmar's military junta. As the rebel groups gained strength, China brokered a ceasefire in January, but it collapsed months later. Lway Yay Oo, spokesman for the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, said, "The Chinese (Chinese Communist Party/CCP) government is putting pressure on us to stop fighting and not to take any offensive actions." Once ethnic armies began to capture junta positions in the south, Beijing began using economic coercion and vague threats of retaliation to stem their advance.
Fu Yifeng, a Chinese dissident who has visited Myanmar, said in an interview with The Epoch Times that the CCP’s infiltration into northern Myanmar has been very serious, which has led to the recent escalation of the situation in northern Myanmar and has also led to some ultra-nationalist protests and even attacks. Some anti-Chinese incidents in Myanmar were also caused by the infiltration of the CCP.
"There is no clear evidence to show which organization the people who attacked the consulate came from. It may be national extremism, or it may be a trick used by the Chinese Communist Party. But no matter who did it, there is a high probability that this thing has a political purpose. The Chinese Communist Party and its relationships with the Myanmar military government and the civilian military groups are actually like grass on the wall. Whichever party is more in line with the interests of the Chinese Communist Party will have a better relationship with it," he said.
Lashio fell, Myanmar’s military junta protested against China’s support for the enemy
At the end of July, the Allied Forces captured Lashio, Myanmar's fourth largest city and the capital of northern Shan State, severely defeating the Northeastern Myanmar Army that had been operating here for many years. The Allied forces then moved south along the way, aiming directly at Mandalay, Myanmar's second largest city, which is connected to the capital Naypyidaw and the country's largest city Yangon by road. Outside analysts believe that if Mandalay also falls, the Myanmar military government may encounter the biggest political crisis since the coup.
"Southern Weekend" reported that the morale of the Myanmar government troops is low and their firepower advantage is getting smaller and smaller. With enemy and friendly forces intertwined, it was difficult for the Myanmar government's artillery to provide supporting firepower for its own infantry. Although the Myanmar government forces have the advantages of air power and long-range artillery, this venting bombing tactic has limited significance.
In the evening of 5 August 2024, Min Aung Hlaing gave a televised speech admitting the failure of the Battle of Lashio. Min Aung Hlaing also specifically pointed out that there are foreign technical experts in the drone force of the Kokang Alliance Army. According to Bloomberg, he gave a speech condemning unnamed foreign countries for providing food, money and other supplies to his enemies - an apparent reference to CCP China. Nationalist supporters of the military also took to the streets to protest CCP China's alleged support for its enemies.
Fu Yifeng observed that the civil war in Myanmar has been in a tepid state, and most of them are small-scale conflicts between local armed forces of some ethnic groups. Without the intervention of intelligence, weapons, money, food, tactical guidance, etc. provided by other countries' governments, it is generally difficult for large-scale armed conflicts to occur.
"The areas currently controlled by the Myanmar regime forces are mainly the provinces in the central region, dominated by the two major cities of Mandalay and Yangon. However, the land often changes hands repeatedly between the military government and ethnic and local armed forces. The military government controls about 40% of the area. Due to the extremely complex terrain of Myanmar and the criss-crossing of multiple local forces, if the Allied Forces do not receive the cooperation of other large-scale local armed forces and the support of other countries, it is basically impossible to defeat the military government. ” he said.
Analysis: The CCP fosters a pro-communist government
Current affairs commentator Li Linyi told The Epoch Times that Myanmar is a very important stronghold of the CCP in Southeast Asia. It has an important strategic resource in the "Belt and Road Initiative" and can directly connect Southeast Asia to the Indian Ocean. Therefore, the CCP has a strategic focus on Myanmar. The important place attaches great importance to it, and the Myanmar government has always attached great importance to it.
"I think the CCP cannot control it in the end. For the CCP, it does not want the Myanmar military government to completely collapse because after the collapse of the military government, it is difficult to say to what extent the government established by these rebels can be pro-communist. It is necessary to maintain a balance between the two sides and not allow the rebels to be too aggressive in attacking the military government, which has resulted in the current situation in Myanmar being in a very unstable state."
Li Linyi believes that the CCP may continue to observe that if its interests in Myanmar cannot be protected, it may consider regime change in Myanmar; but if most of its interests can still be protected, it still will not I really hope the rebels go up. Because the relationship between Aung San Suu Kyi and the CCP was not as good as the relationship between the military government and the CCP.
Ignatius Lee, a young British scholar of international relations, said in an interview with The Epoch Times that he believes that the CCP is the party with the greatest interest and concern among all warring parties in Myanmar but it has no influence and the three parties do not trust each other. Myanmar's military junta appears to be losing ground but still controls the country's major cities and infrastructure. It is indeed possible for the rebel forces to reach Mandalay to turn the tide of the entire war but it remains to be seen how the Mandalay war will turn out.
"If Beijing is really influential, it should have the ability to mediate. There was a truce between the two sides in Myanmar this year. That was because both sides needed to make military adjustments, not because they wanted to give Beijing face. The CCP's ambiguous attitude mainly depends on the warring parties. There is no absolute advantage. When the war is stalemate, don't take sides, because you will suffer losses if you bet wrong, so Beijing has been hesitant."
An anonymous person left a message on the Kokang Information Network saying that the CCP does not want Myanmar to achieve peaceful reunification in the long term. They have learned the lessons of Vietnam's reunification and are worried that Myanmar's peaceful reunification will lead to the West. If Myanmar remains in chaos, the CCP can harvest Myanmar’s low-cost labour, energy and minerals, etc. The CCP says internationally that it does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries but it excessively engages in proxy warfare in Myanmar. If the Allied Forces believe that they are part of Myanmar, they should not be compromised by the CCP's coercion. They should follow the NLD government to speed up the overthrow of Min Aung Hlaing, dismantle the military's ability to govern, and realize a truly democratic federal state.
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