Taiwanese are paying attention to the U.S. election: Taiwan Strait, economic and trade policy are the focus

 Direct translation

Editor : Lin Yan / https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/24/10/24/n14357308.htm / Image : The picture shows the Taipei 101 building. (Chen Baizhou/The Epoch Times)

 As the countdown to the 2024 U.S. presidential election enters, a poll shows that nearly half of Taiwanese people are paying attention to the election, and as many as 67% of the respondents support the U.S. vote. Taiwan provides military assistance, and the attitudes of candidates from both parties in the United States towards the security situation across the Taiwan Strait and economic and trade policies have attracted widespread attention from all walks of life in Taiwan.

Nearly half of Taiwanese are paying attention to the U.S. election

A latest poll released by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation on 22 October 2024 showed that 43.9% of respondents over the age of 20 expressed concern, and 6.5% of them were "very concerned" about the U.S. election results. 49.7% of the people answered "don't care". Further analysis shows that the younger and more educated people are, the more concerned they are about the U.S. election.

The poll also asked people in Taiwan about their views on U.S. President Biden's approval of US$567 million in military aid to Taiwan on 29 September 2024. The result was that 67% of people were "happy to see US military assistance to Taiwan" and 19% of those who have seen it answered "not happy". 

If broken down by political party orientation, 90% of supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party are "happy to see U.S. military aid," while 49% of supporters of the Kuomintang are happy to see it, and 37% are "not happy to see it."

Taiwanese people are concerned about the differences between Trump and Kamala's' statements on Taiwan

In the recent presidential election, the statements of candidates from both parties in the United States on the Taiwan Strait issue have become the focus of public opinion in Taiwan.

Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump has said he is willing to replace military action with tariff penalties. According to the Wall Street Journal, he said last Friday (18 October 2024) that if China "enters" Taiwan, additional tariffs of 150% to 200% will be imposed on China.

In contrast, Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris said in an exclusive interview with CBS News on 7 October 2024 that the United States "should not seek conflict" on the China issue. She said that the United States must ensure that it maintains the "one-China policy", including supporting Taiwan's ability to defend itself and ensuring freedom across the Taiwan Strait. However, she did not answer whether the United States would use force to support Taiwan.

Taiwanese scholars analyze the policy lines of candidates from both parties towards Taiwan

Hu Ruizhou, deputy director of the Taiwan Security Studies Center at National Chengchi University in Taipei, said that Taiwan plays the most critical and dangerous role in the U.S.-China struggle. Although Trump and Kamala Harris both support using Taiwan to contain China's rise, their methods are different. Trump's approach is more focused on "negotiating deals" and obtaining U.S. interests through economic means, while Harris will focus more on cooperating with allies to strengthen the strategy of containing China.

Hu Ruizhou believes that if Kamala is elected, she will continue Biden's diplomatic line, but she is afraid that Kamala will not promise to "send troops to protect Taiwan" unlike Biden; in his view, compared with this month's military exercises around Taiwan, the Communist Army will test the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile on 25 March has sounded the alarm in the United States about the outbreak of nuclear war.

Hu Ruizhou told Voice of America: "In terms of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, Trump is consistent with Kamala in containing China, but in terms of economy and trade, he also seeks to gain U.S. interests through negotiated transactions; the Democratic Party, that has a more detailed operation, has formed cliques and strengthened the goal of containing China's rise through many cooperative relationships with allies. Trump has said that he pays less attention to relations with allies."

However, Hu Ruizhou also said that the United States is still deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine war and the battlefield in the Middle East at this stage, so no matter who is elected president, he will hope that Asia can be "calm", especially in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

In a symposium on "U.S. Elections and Cross-Strait Relations" organized by the Asia Political Economics and Peace Exchange Association on 17 October 2024, Professor Xue Jianwu of the Institute of East Asian Studies at National Chengchi University analyzed that the Democratic Party's party platform was included in the "Taiwan Relations Act", "Three Joint Communiqués" and In the "Six Guarantees" while the Republican party platform does not mention Taiwan. Cross-strait issues are expected to be handled through negotiations, which is more challenging for Taiwan.

Taiwanese people’s attitudes towards candidates from both parties

Guo Shuting, a financial industry professional in Taipei, bluntly stated in an interview with Voice of America that he hopes Trump, a businessman, will be elected because this "negotiation expert" is good at setting prices and has clear conditions, and Taiwan can "pay" to buy security.

Guo Shuting said: "Who can provide us with clearer and faster arms purchases, so that Taiwan can choose what to buy and what kind of training to do? It will be the greatest help to Taiwan and the current stability of the Taiwan Strait. I think it is more important for the two leaders in the United States to be able to negotiate with each other in terms of abiding by agreements or formulating principles.”

Guo Shuting believes that Trump also uses the imposition of tariffs as an economic and trade bargaining chip to frighten China. He describes Trump as treating the United States as a business and competing to be the first. While raising prices to sell things to China, he will also inhibit China from surpassing U.S. In comparison, Kamala is like "someone who promises to sell services but never offers a price." In addition, he is worried that Kamala's insufficient performance in dealing with domestic issues in the United States may lead to a recession in the United States, making it impossible to take care of the Taiwan Strait issue.

However, Wang, a student at National Taiwan University in Taipei, believes that if Kamala is elected and continues Biden's line, he will feel more secure about the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Classmate Wang said: "If China comes over, (Biden promised) they will send troops to help defend themselves. Trump said that if China comes over, they will increase tariffs by 200%. Biden is more aggressive, so I I think it’s safer this way.”

Taiwanese people are concerned about the economic and trade debate in the U.S. election

In addition to security issues, the economic and trade policies of candidates from both parties have also attracted great attention from the Taiwanese people. Trump has proposed imposing tariffs of 10% to 20% on most imported products, and plans to impose tariffs of more than 60% on China to promote "decoupling" between the United States and China. On the contrary, Kamala advocates "de-risking" and not completely decoupling from China.

Xue Jianwu, a professor at the Institute of East Asian Studies at National Chengchi University, said that the Republican Party is "America First" in diplomacy and is different from the Democratic Party's "globalism". However, the two parties have a consensus on China and will adopt stricter trade policies and technological blockades.

Mr. Xu, a financial industry worker in Taipei, believes that if Kamala is elected, Biden's moderate economic and trade route is expected to be continued, which will be more beneficial to Taiwan's economy. On the contrary, Trump's advocacy of "America First" will tighten trade barriers and encourage chip manufacturing and high-tech industries. Returning technology industries to the United States or setting up factories in the United States is not a good thing for Taiwan.

Political science scholar Hu Ruizhou pointed out that no matter who is elected as the new president of the United States, he will hope to control TSMC, especially cutting-edge chip manufacturing. For example, Trump once complained that "Taiwan has taken away the U.S. chip business." Therefore, Taiwan must make mid- and long-term plans as soon as possible and flexibly respond to changes in the international situation and national defense strategic deployment.

The expectations of Taiwan’s industry

Guo Jiayong, CEO of Hugui Industrial Medical Materials in Taipei, believes that the United States and Taiwan have a cooperative relationship that is well-aligned with the technology industry and supply chain, so the results of the U.S. presidential election will have little impact on the industry.

Kuo Jiayong said that Taiwan, that is caught between the two powers, has pricing power in the semiconductor field and has a closer relationship with the United States in its "friendly shore outsourcing" alliance. Even if Trump raises taxes around the world, the probability of imposing taxes on Taiwan is still low because the United States cannot do without Taiwan’s supply chain.

Guo Jiayong bluntly stated that there is a competitive relationship between China and the United States. Economic and trade "decoupling" has prompted American brands or channels to avoid "Made in China", allowing Taiwan to benefit from the "transfer effect."

Guo Jiayong told Voice of America: "In the past, the United States might have used mainland China's supply chain. Now, because of the decoupling problem, Taiwan's supply chain is complete, and Taiwan is the most suitable. When doing design OEM, you will also encounter companies from mainland China who also want to making their products "Made in Taiwan" and then supplying them to the United States is an opportunity for Taiwan."

Guo Jiayong believes that no matter who is elected president, it will not be easy to change the U.S. policy of setting the tone based on national interests. Just like in the past, the U.S. would use national power to support its partners, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China. The rapid economic growth as the policy guidance is all beneficial to the U.S. 

Reprinted from "Voice of America"