Host : Tang Hao / https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2021/02/21/a103058811.html / Direct translation
News (1)
Burmese people protesting: the Burmese military and the Chinese Communist authorities
It has been three weeks since the Burmese military suddenly launched a coup on January 31. The military arrested Aung San Suu Kyi and undermined democratic politics, triggering strong protests from the local people. The Burmese military and police also opened fire for the first time on February 9, when a woman was shot in the head.
On February 19, the woman finally died, becoming the first protester killed since the Burmese coup, and the military coup was bloodied. At the same time, about 500 protesters were arrested by the military and police.
It should be noted that the Burmese people are not only fighting against the Burmese military, they also pointed the finger at the Chinese Communist authorities.
As news came out, the CCP was secretly funding the military's coup d'etat, which caused strong dissatisfaction among the people, who took to the streets to protest and demanded that the CCP stop helping the military's coup. Many people protested outside the Chinese Embassy. They told Xi Jinping, "We are looking at you."
Especially when countries around the world condemned the Burmese military for destroying the free and democratic system, the CCP alone was unwilling to criticize the Burmese military. This made the people angry. They held up slogans and scolded the CCP for saying "You are too shameless." It also made them more questionable that the CCP played a certain role behind this coup.
Did the CCP intervene to support or even initiate this Myanmar coup? A few days ago, the Chinese Communist Party’s Ambassador to Myanmar Chen Hai told the local media in writing, “We have no prior knowledge of the changes in the political situation in Myanmar.”
Two days later, Hua Chunying, the spokesperson of the Chinese Communist Party’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also denied the Chinese Communist Party’s support for the military coup in Myanmar, saying that China did not want to see such a situation in Myanmar. But is it really so? I think you probably don't believe it either. After all, the CCP has told too many lies for many years, and it has long since gone bankrupt. right?
News (2)
How much profit is there in the Myanmar event? US and Taiwan need to be cautious
Of course, we have to talk about evidence, so I want to take you to take a closer look at what interests the Chinese Communist Party in the military coup in Myanmar? Will it make the CCP profitable? After all, if it is unprofitable, the CCP has no incentive to go to the muddy waters; but if it is profitable, even if the CCP does not lead and direct the coup, it will at least secretly support it to get more for itself. the benefits of.
However, we must first draw your attention to the background factors of the general environment, that is, for the leader of the Communist Party of China, now is a very critical time point, because July this year is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, and the leader of the Communist Party must make some achievements. Come to celebrate the party's birthday, right?
Moreover, next year 2022, the CCP will hold its "20th National Congress", but Xi Jinping has not designated a successor until now. Therefore, if Xi Jinping wants to be re-elected as the leader of the Communist Party of China and to keep his position in power, he must produce enough achievements or deeds within this period to prove that he is eligible for a third term. He is qualified to break the party’s rules and make himself a "lifetime chairman."
So what is a "big enough grade"? In the heart of the CCP leader, one is of course to win Taiwan and unify the two sides of the strait; the other is to bring down the United States and dominate the world. Of course, these two big goals are difficult to achieve in a short period of time, but at least he has to make a certain degree of change and make a certain degree of progress in order to prove to the various factions and the big elders in the party that he does Eligible to continue to serve as party leader.
Especially the US-China relationship. At least let the CCP turn from the “passive disadvantage” of the Trump era to the past Obama or Clinton era, where the CCP can erode the dominant position of the United States and give and receive. After all, the current high tension in the US-China relationship was caused by Xi Jinping during his tenure, because he frequently misjudged Trump, so now he has to pay for the bill, right?
And now, the military coup in Burma is a rare opportunity for the CCP. how to say? Because of the situation in Myanmar, there are opportunities to help the CCP obtain several benefits or strategic advantages:
1. Implement the "China-Myanmar Economic Corridor" and expand the CCP's influence in Myanmar
The "China-Myanmar Economic Corridor" is one of the important projects of the CCP's "One Belt, One Road" initiative. The main purpose is to open up a transportation route from Kunming, Yunnan, China to Kyaukphyu, Myanmar. The CCP claims that through this economic corridor, it can bring win-win development for both countries. And Aung San Suu Kyi has met with Xi Jinping many times to discuss the promotion of the construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
You might say, hey, this coup was initiated by the military, and Aung San Suu Kyi's government has stepped down. This should be detrimental to the CCP? Yes, it looks like this on the surface, but in fact, the CCP has continuously strengthened exchanges and established relations with both the Myanmar military and Aung San Suu Kyi for many years.
Although, the relationship between the CCP and the Burmese military can be said to be love-hate intertwined. Because the former Myanmar military government president Thein Sein once stopped the Chinese Communist Party’s investment in the Myitsone Hydropower Project, causing the Chinese Communist Party to lose an important source of power on the southwest border.
Moreover, in the Kokang area near the Chinese border in Myanmar, there are a group of powerful anti-government forces called the "Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army". They are accused of being supported by the CCP and have mercenaries from China. From this point of view, the CCP does make the Myanmar military feel dissatisfied and uneasy.
However, when Myanmar was ruled by the military government, the Myanmar military government was jointly sanctioned by the international community. At that time, only the CCP extended a helping hand to Myanmar; and the Myanmar military also cooperated with the CCP in military affairs. Many Myanmar generals had visited China. Trained in the territory. Therefore, although the CCP and the Burmese military have conflicts and distrust with each other, they still have a relatively close relationship of interests. It's a bit like the relationship between the CCP and North Korea.
Moreover, the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, although frequent contacts with Xi Jinping, is willing to cooperate to promote the "Belt and Road" project. However, the Myanmar Parliament is worried that it will fall into the CCP’s debt trap, and instead turn Kyaukphyu Port into the next Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka. As we all know, because of its participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, Sri Lanka could not repay the loan from China, and was forced to lease their Hambantota Port to the CCP for 99 years.
Therefore, the Myanmar National Assembly slashed the amount of the Kyaukphyu Port project from the original US$7.2 billion to only US$1.3 billion. The original plan to build 10 berths for large tankers was also cut to the rest. 2 berths. This made the CCP feel dissatisfied, and found that the elected government under the pressure of public opinion may not be beneficial to the CCP’s development in Myanmar.
Therefore, the military is now launching a coup and pushing democracy back to the military dictatorship of the past. In this way, it will be beneficial to the CCP’s development plan. The CCP only needs to establish a good relationship with the military and negotiate good terms without considering the local The issue of public opinion can be used by the military to accelerate the “China-Myanmar Economic Corridor” project in Myanmar, and at the same time expand the CCP’s investment and influence in Myanmar.
We know that Myanmar is the largest country in the Indochina Peninsula, and Myanmar’s geographical location is between China, India, the Indochina Peninsula and the Indian Ocean. Its strategic location is very dangerous. Therefore, the CCP has always been deliberately trying to expand its power in Myanmar. Now, the military coup and the overthrow of the democratically elected government have just given the CCP a rare opportunity.
2. Consolidate the energy supply line and prevent the US from cutting off
As you may know, China is the world's largest oil importer, and 70% of its oil consumption depends on overseas imports. In addition to Russia, the Middle East and African countries are China's most important source of oil imports. Therefore, China's imported oil must travel by sea from the Middle East or Africa, through the Indian Ocean, through the Strait of Malacca, and through the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait before it can be sent to China.
The relationship between the CCP and the United States and India is very tense. If India and the United States join forces to intercept CCP tankers on this transportation route, China's domestic crude oil supply will be in trouble. This has always allowed the CCP to launch long-term operations in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, or the East China Sea.
We just said that the CCP invested in the development of a deep-water port in Kyaukphyu in Myanmar. At the same time, the CCP is also preparing to build a "Mandalay High Speed Rail" in Myanmar. If the high-speed rail is opened to traffic, oil from the Middle East and Africa can be sent directly to Kyaukphyu Port. Landing and transporting to Yunnan by rail will eliminate the need to travel through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, and prevent the energy supply line from being cut off by the US or India from the sea.
At that time, the CCP will dare to take radical military actions on the Diaoyu Islands, Taiwan and South China Sea issues to confront the United States, Japan or Taiwan.
3. Military power goes straight into the Indian Ocean "Pearl chain" breaks the "Indo-Pacific region"
From a military point of view, the "China-Myanmar Economic Corridor" is actually a strategic channel for China to directly enter the Indian Ocean from the southwest. Especially if the high-speed rail project is completed, the CCP may use Myanmar to directly send troops to Kyaukphyu Port and intervene in the Indian Ocean.
In fact, the "China-Myanmar Economic Corridor" fits the CCP's so-called "Pearl Chain Strategy" in the past, which is the CCP's grand strategy to intervene in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.
They want to control Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar, Hamban Tota Port in Sri Lanka, and Tan Gwadar Port in Pakistan, together with Hainan Island, to form a W-shaped maritime front to counter the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, which is Confronting the containment and blockade of the CCP by the United States and India.
In particular, if the CCP’s crude oil transportation can no longer rely on sea transportation and does not have to pass through the Strait of Malacca, then the CCP will be more confident in confronting the United States and India in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, and will more actively expand and penetrate into Southeast Asia and South Asia.
4. Control the export of rare earths and restrain the U.S. military and high-tech industries
Rare earth is a general term for 17 rare metal elements. Rare earth is also an important production material necessary for modern high-tech industries and semiconductor industries. Whether it is mobile phones, computers, electric vehicles or even fighter jets, a large number of semiconductor chips are used, and the manufacture of these chips requires a large amount of rare earths.
For example, the most advanced F-35 fighter jet in the United States requires 417 kilograms of rare earths to be manufactured on average. China is currently the world's largest producer of rare earths, accounting for about 63% of the world's output; and about 80% of the rare earths that American companies need each year come from China. So what do you think of? Does China's rare earths control the high-tech and military industries of the United States, right?
Therefore, after Trump launched a trade war and the CCP was frustrated, the CCP wanted to restrict the export of rare earths in order to attack the US military and technology industries. The Financial Times recently disclosed that the CCP is indeed studying how much trouble American and European companies will encounter if the export of rare earths is restricted? In other words, the CCP intends to use rare earths as weapons to choke the necks of European and American countries.
However, many people may overlook one point. Myanmar is also closely related to rare earths. Although Myanmar is not a big rare earth producer, it mainly produces rarer "heavy rare earths". Myanmar provides about half of the world's heavy rare earth production, which is first sent to China for smelting and then exported to other countries.
So, now that a coup is taking place in Myanmar, if the CCP joins forces with the Myanmar military to control the global supply of rare earths and reduce or cut off the supply of rare earths to the United States, will it possibly bring incalculable risks to the US military and high-tech industries? Is it possible to "weaponize" rare earths to force European and American countries to make concessions to the CCP or even obey the CCP? Therefore, rare earths will be a very important battlefield between the United States and China.
5. Weaken Myanmar's democratic system and avoid tilting towards Europe
We know that the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi imitated the Western democratic system. Therefore, the democratically elected government pays more and more attention to the universal values of the West. In terms of values and positions, it will increasingly lean towards European and American countries. In this way, the democratically elected government will have more and more differences and contradictions with the CCP, which the CCP does not want to see.
Now, the military has launched a coup d’etat, freedom and democracy have ceased, and returned to the military’s dictatorship. The military’s dictatorship will have more in common with the CCP’s dictatorship system. This will allow the Myanmar military to stand with the CCP. On the same boat, swing with the CCP.
6. Using Myanmar as a lever to increase the bargaining chip between China and the United States
The current coup in Myanmar is on the surface a system conflict between "liberal democracy" and "totalitarian dictatorship," but it is actually a conflict between Western universal values and authoritarian values. Therefore, after the coup, Western countries have issued statements condemning the military and demanded that the CCP should join the condemnation.
Of course, you must have guessed that the CCP will not condemn the Burmese military, because they are hoping to use the Burmese military’s coup to expand their power in Burma, and to destroy the Indo-Pacific between the United States and India. District strategy to combat the US military industry. This coup is profitable to the CCP, so instead of condemning Myanmar, the CCP will use this coup as a trap to trap the United States.
how to say? We know that the United States is the representative of the country that values democracy and human rights most in the world. It is the world's policeman. Biden just emphasized at the Munich Security Conference that he believes that "democracy must win." So if the Burmese military continues to control the regime, it will make Biden lose face, so Biden must find a way to intervene in order to prove that he is the leader of a major country "defending democracy."
But how do you intervene? One method is to launch a variety of economic sanctions, but these sanctions may not have much impact on Myanmar military generals, and if the CCP supports them behind the scenes, these economic sanctions may become painless. .
Another method is military intervention, whether it is the United States dispatching its own troops or uniting its allies to dispatch multinational forces. However, the risk of military intervention is too high and the cost is too high. Biden has only been in office for a month and would not wish to involve himself in another international war from the beginning. So, what will Biden do? I can only find another friend who has influence on Myanmar to ask him for help and persuade the Myanmar military to make a conditional concession.
Who will Biden look for? That's right, just ask the CCP for help. This is the same as in the Obama era, when the United States has to deal with North Korea’s nuclear threat, not by directly suppressing North Korea, but by asking the CCP to help persuade and negotiate. So next, Biden should consider discussing and cooperating with China, through the joint pressure of the United States and China, to force the Myanmar military to make concessions and restore the democratic system in Myanmar, so that Biden can also establish an image of "guarding democracy".
However, this happens to fall into the trap of the CCP. What the CCP wants is such a script. They want to use the Myanmar coup as a lever to force the U.S. to come to the CCP to negotiate and negotiate without having to do it themselves. This is tantamount to pushing up the CCP’s bargaining chips and capital.
In this way, the CCP can raise its stance and by the way require the U.S. to make certain concessions or provide certain conditions that the CCP wants, such as canceling trade tariffs, restoring high-tech exports, or even not intervening in Taiwan Strait issues.
This is equivalent to saying that the CCP wants to force the U.S. to come to the negotiating table through the Myanmar issue. Then the CCP will be able to climb from the "passive disadvantage" position to the "active advantage" position, right? Does this prove that the leader of the Chinese Communist Party has made "achievements" and is capable of improving US-China relations? There is even a chance for the US to make more concessions on the Taiwan issue.
In fact, don’t forget that in the past, the CCP used this set of "agent" dramas on North Korea. The CCP let North Korea throw missiles and create international panic. The international community would want to sanction North Korea, but the CCP would come forward and say " Everyone should exercise restraint".
It is said that instead of sanctions or conflict, it is better to negotiate peacefully. At that time, the CCP can take the opportunity to blackmail other countries, and after getting the benefits, ask North Korea to stop quietly for a while.
So, do you understand? In the past, the CCP used North Korea in Northeast Asia as a trap and leverage for international negotiations. Now it has joined Myanmar in Southeast Asia. It is tantamount to "double-teaming" the United States, forcing the United States to take the initiative to seek help from the CCP, so that the CCP can take the opportunity to carry it out. High net worth and good conditions forced the United States to make concessions.
What’s more troublesome is that as soon as Biden took office, he once again raised North Korea to the enemy level, declaring to be tough on North Korea. In other words, if the United States wants to increase pressure on North Korea, then it will inevitably give the CCP another intervention to mediate. , Become a business opportunity for power brokers.
News (3)
The CCP creates another international trap to trap the U.S. and Western countries
Therefore, I think that the CCP at least supports the Myanmar coup in attitude, because it is not only profitable for the CCP, but also allows the CCP to create another international trap to trap the United States and Western countries, and at the same time increase the opportunities for the CCP. Bargaining chips, bargaining with the United States, and even a chance to ask the United States to back down on the Taiwan issue, so including the United States and Taiwan, all should attach importance to the follow-up development of relations between the United States, China, North Korea, and Myanmar.
As for whether the CCP participated in or instigated the coup in Myanmar? At this point, it is still impossible to make a 100% judgment, but there are already many relevant signs that have emerged.
For example, two weeks before the outbreak of the coup in Myanmar, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar and called each other "brothers" with the military leader Min Aung Lai, and they were very close. After the coup d'etat, the Chinese Communist Party media was very low-key. Instead of using the term "coup d'etat", they only declared that it was a "large-scale reorganization" of the Burmese government, apparently escorting and endorsing the military's coup.
In addition, it was once reported that the CCP provided technical support for the Myanmar military to block the network. Although the CCP officially denied it, it still triggered large-scale protests. At the same time, news also pointed out that five Chinese state-owned enterprises, including China North Industries Corporation and China Aviation Industry Corporation, have provided arms to the Myanmar military.
Although we don’t know whether the arms provided by these state-owned enterprises are related to the coup, at least it can be confirmed that the CCP has a very close relationship with the Myanmar military, and the CCP’s willingness to fund the Myanmar military’s weapons also means that the CCP wants to cooperate with them and is trying Political, business and military interests in Myanmar and Southeast Asia.
Okay, let’s repeat this last time. I think the Burmese military’s coup was supported by the CCP, because this coup will bring at least six strategic advantages to the CCP:
1. Implement the "China-Myanmar Economic Corridor" and expand the CCP's influence in Myanmar
2. Consolidate the energy supply line and prevent the US from cutting off
3. Military power goes straight into the Indian Ocean "Pearl chain" breaks the "Indo-Pacific region"
Fourth, control the export of rare earths to clamp down on the U.S. military and high-tech industries
5. Weaken Myanmar's democratic system and avoid tilting towards Europe
6. Using Myanmar as a lever to increase the bargaining chip between China and the United States
No comments:
Post a Comment