Does the 2035 roadmap send a clear signal that Xi wants to set for a fourth term?

 Direct translation

Is Xi set for a fourth term? Does the 2035 roadmap send a clear signal? Four major changes

Editor: Fang Xun / Source: Chosun Ilbo/Aboluowang / https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/1026/2296226.html

No succession signals were given at the top meeting of the Communist Party of China, with only the long-term goal of 2035 emphasized. This has led to speculation that Xi Jinping could potentially secure a fourth term. Some analysts suggest that, while the Fourth Plenum is not traditionally a venue for publicly designating a successor, it could signal succession by nominating a strong candidate, such as the vacant Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

From the 20th to the 23rd, the Communist Party of China held the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee (Fourth Plenum) in Beijing. The meeting adopted the draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) for the Long-Term Economic Implementation Strategy and replaced some personnel.

The meeting emphasized the target timeframe of "2035" for China's medium- and long-term development, as well as Xi Jinping's economic and security slogans. The meeting communiqué stated, "By 2035, my country will achieve a significant leap forward in its economic strength, scientific and technological strength, national defense strength, comprehensive national power, and international influence, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries." This builds credibility for the continuation of the Xi Jinping regime beyond the 21st National Congress in 2027.

In the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), China's economic development strategy for the next five years, reviewed and approved at the meeting, Xi Jinping proposed "high-quality development (led by cutting-edge technology industries)" and "technological self-reliance" as primary goals. The slogan of common prosperity, which was absent from the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee, resurfaced at this meeting.

Earlier, Chiu Chui-cheng, Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council (senior-level official), Taiwan's official responsible for mainland China affairs, stated, "Xi Jinping will personally plan and implement the 15th Five-Year Plan," and "therefore, it is estimated that Xi Jinping will continue in office in 2027."

Although the meeting reshuffled 11 members of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, it did not provide any signals regarding the next leadership. Of the seven Central Military Commission members, vacancies have been created following the dismissal of former Vice Chairman He Weidong and former Director of the Political Work Department Miao Hua. However, the position of Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission was not filled by a political figure, but was taken over by Zhang Shengmin, an active-duty soldier and Secretary of the Central Military Commission's Discipline Committee. Both Xi Jinping and former President Hu Jintao secured their positions as the next leader after serving in high-ranking Party and government positions, ultimately becoming Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), which has full responsibility for military affairs.

The conference communiqué emphasized "implementing Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Military" and "upholding the system of responsibility held by the Chairman of the CMC," reaffirming Xi Jinping's absolute authority. On the Taiwan issue, the communiqué reiterated Xi Jinping's established position: "Promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations (China and Taiwan) and advancing the great cause of national reunification."

Aboluowang commentator Wang Duran concluded that the Mainland Affairs Council's assessment is that while deliberately avoiding the issue of succession, this meeting comprehensively reinforced the "legitimacy of long-term rule" and used the 2035 goals as a rationale for Xi Jinping's continued political tenure. In other words, the Fourth Plenum did not initiate a power transition, but rather laid the institutional foundation for Xi Jinping's fourth term in office.

However, Wang Duran also analyzed that all this was merely Xi Jinping's vision. Whether he can extend his term as he wishes still depends on four major uncertainties: First, can Xi Jinping's health support him until 2035? Second, will there be new variables in the power struggle within the party? Third, to what extent will the evolution of the international situation weaken the foundation of Xi Jinping's rule? In particular, the degree of awakening of the Chinese people will become a key variable - can the "Three Withdrawals" (withdrawing from the Party, the League, and the Young Pioneers) movement develop to the point of causing qualitative change? Can it prompt the CCP's repressive machinery to reach a critical point where "the muzzle of the gun is raised an inch higher"? The website for the Three Withdrawals is: tuidang.org, and the phone number is: (888) 976-6568.