Direct translation
Shocking! Major shift in party and military power: Is this a dynastic change?
Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor : Fang Xun https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/1022/2294494.html, https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/1022/2294671.html Images : Web Screenshot, Handphone Screenshot
Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant colonel in the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, recently revealed on his own media outlets that rumors within the military are circulating that "Xi Jinping may lose his position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the Fourth Plenum." The Central Military Commission may undergo a comprehensive reorganization, with a new seven-member roster already finalized.
Reports indicate that Xi Jinping will resign as Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the Fourth Plenum, with Zhang Youxia taking over. Hu Chunhua, the frequently featured "deposed crown prince," will become Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, while Liu Zhenli, Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department, will also be promoted to the position of Vice Chairman. Over the next two years, Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia will retire together at the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China, with Hu Chunhua taking over as General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Due to Hu Chunhua's lack of military experience, Zhang Youxia will provide him with a two-year support system to help him familiarize himself with the workings of military power.
Reportedly, other military personnel changes include: Zhang Shengmin, Secretary of the Military Discipline Committee, will replace Miao Hua as head of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission; Air Force Commander Chang Dingqiu will be promoted to Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department; Wang Renhua, Secretary of the Military Political and Legal Affairs Commission, will be promoted to Secretary of the Military Discipline Committee; and Navy Commander Dong Jun will also be promoted to member of the Central Military Commission. The new CMC consists of seven members: Zhang Youxia, Hu Chunhua, Liu Zhenli, Zhang Shengmin, Chang Dingqiu, Wang Renhua, and Dong Jun. They cover the four major branches of the military: the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, symbolizing a "balanced reorganization." Hu Chunhua will also serve concurrently as Vice President, a role similar to Xi Jinping's previous role as crown prince.
Aboluowang commentator Wang Duran stated that the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission is concurrently held by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (an exception during the Deng Xiaoping era), ensuring the Party's absolute leadership over the military. Zhang Youxia's succession is unlikely. Furthermore, according to public reports, General Wang Renhua, Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission of the Central Military Commission, was absent from the opening ceremony of a special seminar for leading Party political and legal cadres on May 8th. There are no public records of his subsequent activities, and Wang Renhua also missed events such as the Army Day dinner in August. Like Miao Hua, Wang Renhua is a naval officer and rose rapidly during Miao's tenure as Director of the Political Work Department.
Commentator Tang Jingyuan believes this version of events "has a certain degree of credibility." If the transfer of military power is true, it will mark the end of the Xi Jinping era. "Within the CCP system, the foundation of party power lies in military power. A change of military power is tantamount to a change of dynasty." However, the leaks did not specify whether Xi Jinping would also resign as General Secretary.
Tang Jingyuan analyzed that if Hu Chunhua replicated Xi Jinping's model, in addition to serving as Vice President and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, he would also need to become a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo Standing Committee and First Secretary of the Central Secretariat, forming a crown prince. If a two-year transition period were established, someone would need to take charge of government affairs, likely Wang Yang. "But if Xi remains General Secretary, Wang Yang would not be able to publicly lead the government and would instead operate behind the scenes as the head of a coordinating body."
He warned that Hua Guofeng was able to peacefully hand over power because he was honest and non-competitive; Xi Jinping, on the other hand, is "power-hungry and capricious," and "even if given a 0.1% chance, he would turn the tables." Therefore, allowing Xi Jinping to resign only as Chairman of the Central Military Commission while retaining his position as General Secretary is "an extremely dangerous transition plan" that would only sow the seeds of a power struggle.
Tang Jingyuan concluded, "If Xi loses his position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission, he will be declared powerless. The safest path forward is for him to resign both as Chairman of the Central Military Commission and as General Secretary, stepping down gracefully and handing over power completely. Otherwise, the power vacuum and factional wrangling in Zhongnanhai will once again ignite."
The Fourth Plenum of the CPC Central Committee has caused a sensation both at home and abroad with breaking news
The Fourth Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will be held behind closed doors in Beijing from the 20th to the 23rd. Hours before it began, former Chinese Navy Lieutenant Colonel Yao Cheng broke the news that Xi Jinping would resign as Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), to be succeeded by Zhang Youxia, with Hu Chunhua serving as Vice Chairman.
Later, on the afternoon of the 21st, Eastern Time (US Eastern Time), or the evening of the 22nd, Beijing Time, Yao Cheng broke the news on the X platform, claiming that all members and alternate members of the Central Military Commission at the Fourth Plenum had collectively submitted a motion demanding the removal of Xi Jinping from his position as Chairman of the CMC. This information came from a member of the conference organizing committee, who revealed that "this is a serious matter, and the military will not tolerate it."
Yao Cheng stated that the military has "made up its mind" this time, and if Zhang Youxia is put in a disadvantageous position, the military will take action, not ruling out a "military remonstration" or even "arresting Xi." Recently, footage has also been captured of large numbers of military vehicles, possibly hundreds of them, moving across various provinces and cities across the country ahead of the Fourth Plenum, all covered with canvas. Yao Cheng believes this indicates a "secondary combat readiness" status.
In response to outside criticism that "Zhang Youxia lacks power and courage," Yao Cheng responded, "When the tree falls, the foxes scatter; when disaster strikes, everyone flees. This is human nature, especially evident in the Chinese people. This is especially true among Communist Party members. At the Ninth National Congress, when Liu Shaoqi was labeled a traitor, all Central Committee members raised their hands. The same group raised their hands when he was rehabilitated, and the same is true today." He said Zhang Youxia was "taking advantage of the situation" because the anti-Xi movement within the military had already begun. "With their lives at stake, they had no choice but to take action."
Yao Cheng analyzed that Xi Jinping's "Cultural Revolution generation was illiterate and engaged in looting and vandalism," while many of the new generation have received a Western education, are exposed to universal values, and hope to change China. He said, "Precisely because of this, the majority now support Xi Jinping's ouster."
Yao Cheng admitted that he was not at the meeting and could not fully guarantee the authenticity of the information, but said the meeting was indeed different from previous years. The military was at a disadvantage, and Xi controlled the party and government systems. Therefore, the military adopted an extraordinary strategy of "leaking the meeting details to win the support of the military." He also learned about the relevant situation from this incident.
American commentator Zhang Tianliang pointed out that security for the Central Committee plenary session is being coordinated by the Central Security Bureau, with the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Armed Police, and local public security agencies working together. Unless the Central Security Bureau revolts, it's impossible for all military representatives to demand Xi Jinping's removal; if they did, "Xi Jinping could have been arrested long ago." He also emphasized that the limited number of military representatives among the Central Committee members makes it difficult for a proposal to be passed.
American commentator Hu Ping retweeted Zhang Tianliang's comment and commented, "That's right." Meanwhile, American commentator Han Lianchao warned against the CCP's "new strategy." He said the core purpose of the Fourth Plenum is to further consolidate and strengthen Xi Jinping's authoritarian rule and is a strategic mobilization to counter the United States. The rumour circulating overseas that "Xi Jinping has lost military power and will become a puppet" is seriously inconsistent with the CCP's ironclad principle of "the Party commands the gun."
Han Lianchao warned that if Washington accepts this wishful thinking, it will seriously mislead policymaking, leading the U.S. to mistakenly believe the CCP is on the verge of internal strife and collapse, while overlooking its systematic strategy centered on "new-quality productivity" to reshape the global competitive landscape. The United States must be vigilant against disinformation and calmly formulate reciprocal countermeasures to counter the CCP's nationwide quasi-war mobilization.
Is there a commotion in Zhongnanhai over Xi Jinping's abdication?
— The power struggle in Zhongnanhai is beyond imagination. There is a heated debate about Xi Jinping's abdication
Report by : Li Siwei / Editor : Fang Xun / https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/1022/2294656.html / Image : The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is underway, and various leaks are circulating online. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
The closed-door Fourth Plenum of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee has entered its third day, and various leaked reports of high-level personnel changes are circulating online, highlighting the intense infighting within the leadership. During this period, public attention has focused on top-level personnel changes and whether Party leader Xi Jinping's position of power has shifted.
The Fourth Plenum of the CPC Central Committee was held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd. In recent days, various reports have circulated: Xi Jinping has lost control of the military; the military has jointly removed Xi Jinping from his position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission; Zhang Youxia and Hu Chunhua have been added to the Standing Committee, increasing the number of members from seven to nine; Hu Chunhua and Liu Zhenli have been added as Vice Chairmen of the CMC, with Wang Yang to take over. Of course, some sources also suggest that Xi Jinping's power is secure.
On the 22nd, US-based political commentator Zhang Tianliang analyzed on the overseas X platform that security for the Central Committee plenary sessions is typically handled by the Central Security Bureau. The Central Security Bureau coordinates with the Ministry of Public Security, the Armed Police Force, and local public security agencies to implement security plans. Unless the Central Security Bureau rebels, it is unlikely that all military representatives will demand the removal of Xi Jinping as Chairman of the CMC. On the other hand, if the Central Security Bureau had rebelled, would it have taken until the Fourth Plenum to act? Xi Jinping would have been arrested long ago. Moreover, with only a few military representatives among the Central Committee members, a vote wouldn't have been possible.
Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant colonel and staff officer of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy Command, wrote on the X platform that Xi's resignation as Chairman of the Central Military Commission and Zhang Youxia's succession were more a reflection of the military's will than a rumor. Since last year's Third Plenum, Xi had effectively lost the support of the military, but why was he so necessary to be removed? First, orders from the Central Military Commission required the Chairman's signature as a formality. Second, as long as Xi remained in office, he would inevitably intervene and even disrupt the situation, ready to overturn the situation at the first opportunity. This was intolerable.
On October 17, before the Fourth Plenum, nine generals, including He Weidong, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission; Miao Hua, former Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission; and He Hongjun, former Executive Deputy Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, were expelled from the Party and the military.
These nine individuals are Xi Jinping's "direct heirs," many of whom hail from the 31st Group Army in Fujian Province, leaving Xi with a "lone commander." The exposure of these individuals at a sensitive time highlights the power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that goes beyond public expectations.
On the first day of the Fourth Plenum, party media coverage was unusually low-key and bizarre. Initial coverage of the opening session consisted of a single sentence, about 100 words: "Party leader Xi Jinping delivers a work report..." There wasn't even a single accompanying image. Subsequently, Xinhua News Agency published articles touting Xi's economic "achievements" and editorials, repeatedly emphasizing the "Xi core" role.
Regarding the unusual political situation within the CCP, veteran media personality Tang Hao analyzed Xi Jinping's power situation on his program "Crossroads," analyzing the individuals and factors that led to his resignation. He believes there are at least five major factors: First, the CCP's economic collapse and inability to recover; Second, numerous policy errors, corrupt officials abusing their power, and public resentment; Third, the military's massacre of "Xi's family generals," leading to a rallying of anti-Xi forces; Fourth, the disruption of US-China relations, the creation of international chaos, and the concerted efforts of major powers to isolate Xi; and Fifth, Xi Jinping's failing health, hindering his ambitions.
Tang Hao stated that over the past two years, the number of university graduates has reached record highs each year, while businesses have continued to close and flee. Consequently, unemployment, declining consumption, and a falling housing market have caused profound suffering for countless people. Not only has the Beijing authorities' economy faltered, but many policies, implemented under Xi's "personal command and deployment," have failed to materialize, causing losses to the Chinese people.
Regarding the military's massacre of "Xi's family generals," Tang Hao believes that the news of the "downfall of nine generals" is not Xi Jinping's own "cleansing of the imperial court," but rather someone else's "trimming of the skirts," or even a "military coup" of some sort.
Regarding whether Xi Jinping will step down or cede power, Tang Hao stated that a complete abdication is unlikely, as this would undermine the prestige of the entire CCP and lead the international community to underestimate the CCP, believing it to be in turmoil and difficult to control. For example, Xinhua News Agency's latest propaganda article continues to tout Xi Jinping's leadership in completing the 14th Five-Year Plan and moving on to the 15th Five-Year Plan. While the article is short, it mentions Xi nine times, likely a temporary compromise between Xi and anti-Xi factions.
Tang Hao speculates that Xi's abdication is unlikely because no one within the Party is willing to clean up the mess he has left behind over the years, encompassing the economy, politics, diplomacy, and livelihoods. Anyone who takes over would find it difficult to clean up the mess and could even risk their own political career.
Tang Hao believes that perhaps for this reason, the Zhongnanhai has compromised, allowing Xi to remain in power. At least he will retain the presidency, but his real power, especially military control, will likely be stripped away. He will then be removed at a certain point, left to shoulder the responsibility. This will allow his successor to absolve himself of responsibility and "restart the mess." Regarding how Xi Jinping could step down gracefully, political commentator Zhou Xiaohui, writing in The Epoch Times on October 22nd, argued that besides voluntarily resigning from the Central Committee, there are three other ways to remove a member: 1. In rare cases, the removal of a Central Committee member's position is initiated by the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee; 2. The removal of a member or members of the Central Committee is decided by a resolution issued by the CPC Central Committee plenary session, but this is also relatively rare; 3. In the most common cases of removal of a Central Committee member at a CPC Central Committee plenary session, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection or the Military Commission for Discipline Inspection submits an investigation report on a member's issues to the plenary session, which then deliberates and approves it.
Zhou Xiaohui stated that for Xi, the first option is the most desirable for the CCP top brass. It not only avoids causing significant upheaval within the Party and society, but also protects Xi and his family from future retribution. However, if Xi does not voluntarily resign from his Central Committee membership and his military and political posts, or even attempts to overturn his position through a vote of the Central Committee, the CCP elders controlling the situation behind the scenes and the military, which is completely opposed to Xi, may resort to coercion, such as the second option, to force Xi to step down. After all, Xi, having lost his military power, may have limited personnel at his disposal from the Central Security Bureau and the Ministry of Public Security's Special Service Bureau, making them no match for special forces.
Recently, Zhou Xiaohui learned that key universities in Beijing received a notice requiring dedicated personnel to be on duty from October 20th to 29th, including weekends.
Zhou Xiaohui stated that this extended alert period to nearly a week after the meeting is extremely rare for CCP plenary sessions in the past two decades. This is likely to prevent changes within the CCP from causing public unrest, especially to monitor student reactions. This notice also indirectly confirms the high probability of major personnel changes at the Fourth Plenum.
The Fourth Plenum of the CPC Central Committee has shocking news! Will Li Qiang succeed Xi Jinping? Will Zhang Youxia withdraw?
Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor : Zhongkang / https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/1022/2294787.html
Edwin Chiang, a former Chinese Communist Party official living in Australia, has recently posted a series of posts claiming to have insider information about personnel changes at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), involving several high-ranking officials, including Li Qiang, Zhang Youxia, Zhang Shengmin, Zhong Shaojun, and Guo Puxiao, sparking concern.
On the evening of the 6th, Chiang posted on the X platform, "The Fourth Plenary Session clarified: Li Qiang will serve as First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, replacing Zhang Youxia; the Party has confirmed Li Qiang as the successor to the 21st National Congress; in 2027, Xi Jinping will step down from all positions except Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Zhang Shengmin will replace He Weidong as Vice Chairman of the CMC, and Zhong Shaojun will be appointed as a member of the CMC and Director of the Political Department." The post has garnered over 117,000 views.
Two weeks later, on October 21st, he spoke again, stating, "I got the news earlier than anyone else, but to this day I still find it hard to believe Xi Jinping would take action against a member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee (don't believe the rumors about Zhang Youxia)."
He also revealed that the Fourth Plenum was held under unprecedented secrecy—no mobile phones were allowed at the meeting, and the phones of the personal secretaries of provincial Party secretaries were left at their residences. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee's Confidential Affairs Bureau was fully committed to preventing leaks, stating that "no changes to the Standing Committee will be discussed during the meeting; at most, additional Politburo members will be added." Therefore, any rumors circulating from the meeting were fabricated.
That same evening, Edwin Chiang released another version of the "military by-election," stating: "Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, will be appointed Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, replacing Zhang Youxia; Zhang Shengmin will be appointed Vice Chairman; Air Force General Guo Puxiao will be appointed Member of the Military Commission and Director of the Political Department; and Li Fengbiao, Political Commissar of the Western Theater Command, will be appointed Secretary of the Military Discipline Committee." The post garnered 17,000 views.
CCP officials have yet to confirm any personnel changes.
Aboluowang commentator Wang Duran stated that while Jiang Wangzheng's revelations regarding top CCP leadership partially align with subsequent developments, their authenticity remains to be verified. The most obvious error in this revelation was his claim that He Weidong disappeared because he was planning an attack on Taiwan in Fujian. The current content may reflect a "testing the waters" within Zhongnanhai.
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