Major shift in CCP military power may be the end of the Xi Jinping era

 Direct translation

Shocking! Major shift in party and military power: Is this a dynastic change?

Reporter : Wang Duruo / Editor : Fang Xun / https://www.aboluowang.com/2025/1022/2294494.html / Image : Web Screenshot

Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant colonel in the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, recently revealed on his own media outlets that rumors within the military are circulating that "Xi Jinping may lose his position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the Fourth Plenum." The Central Military Commission may undergo a comprehensive reorganization, with a new seven-member roster already finalized.

Reports indicate that Xi Jinping will resign as Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the Fourth Plenum, with Zhang Youxia taking over. Hu Chunhua, the frequently featured "deposed crown prince," will become Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, while Liu Zhenli, Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department, will also be promoted to the position of Vice Chairman. Over the next two years, Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia will retire together at the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China, with Hu Chunhua taking over as General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Due to Hu Chunhua's lack of military experience, Zhang Youxia will provide him with a two-year support system to help him familiarize himself with the workings of military power.

Reportedly, other military personnel changes include: Zhang Shengmin, Secretary of the Military Discipline Committee, will replace Miao Hua as head of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission; Air Force Commander Chang Dingqiu will be promoted to Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department; Wang Renhua, Secretary of the Military Political and Legal Affairs Commission, will be promoted to Secretary of the Military Discipline Committee; and Navy Commander Dong Jun will also be promoted to member of the Central Military Commission. The new CMC consists of seven members: Zhang Youxia, Hu Chunhua, Liu Zhenli, Zhang Shengmin, Chang Dingqiu, Wang Renhua, and Dong Jun. They cover the four major branches of the military: the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, symbolizing a "balanced reorganization." Hu Chunhua will also serve concurrently as Vice President, a role similar to Xi Jinping's previous role as crown prince.

Aboluowang commentator Wang Duran stated that the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission is concurrently held by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (an exception during the Deng Xiaoping era), ensuring the Party's absolute leadership over the military. Zhang Youxia's succession is unlikely. Furthermore, according to public reports, General Wang Renhua, Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission of the Central Military Commission, was absent from the opening ceremony of a special seminar for leading Party political and legal cadres on May 8th. There are no public records of his subsequent activities, and Wang Renhua also missed events such as the Army Day dinner in August. Like Miao Hua, Wang Renhua is a naval officer and rose rapidly during Miao's tenure as Director of the Political Work Department.

Commentator Tang Jingyuan believes this version of events "has a certain degree of credibility." If the transfer of military power is true, it will mark the end of the Xi Jinping era. "Within the CCP system, the foundation of party power lies in military power. A change of military power is tantamount to a change of dynasty." However, the leaks did not specify whether Xi Jinping would also resign as General Secretary.

Tang Jingyuan analyzed that if Hu Chunhua replicated Xi Jinping's model, in addition to serving as Vice President and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, he would also need to become a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo Standing Committee and First Secretary of the Central Secretariat, forming a crown prince. If a two-year transition period were established, someone would need to take charge of government affairs, likely Wang Yang. "But if Xi remains General Secretary, Wang Yang would not be able to publicly lead the government and would instead operate behind the scenes as the head of a coordinating body."

He warned that Hua Guofeng was able to peacefully hand over power because he was honest and non-competitive; Xi Jinping, on the other hand, is "power-hungry and capricious," and "even if given a 0.1% chance, he would turn the tables." Therefore, allowing Xi Jinping to resign only as Chairman of the Central Military Commission while retaining his position as General Secretary is "an extremely dangerous transition plan" that would only sow the seeds of a power struggle.

Tang Jingyuan concluded, "If Xi loses his position as Chairman of the Central Military Commission, he will be declared powerless. The safest path forward is for him to resign both as Chairman of the Central Military Commission and as General Secretary, stepping down gracefully and handing over power completely. Otherwise, the power vacuum and factional wrangling in Zhongnanhai will once again ignite."