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Editor : Zhongkang / Source: Chairman Rabbit / https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/1024/2120049.html / Image : Screenshot
There are still two weeks until the 2024 US election. Who will win the election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris? In fact, the market has already given the answer. Today, let's take a look at various relevant indicators.
First, let's take a look at the opinion polls in swing states.
RCP's integrated polling data shows that Trump is currently leading in all seven swing states (the seven swing states are Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada).
In the figure below, all seven swing states have "turned red" (the Republican Party is red). Although Trump's lead is not much and is within the error range, it should be taken into account that RCP has integrated various polling data, and Trump has achieved a full lead. I have never seen such a one-sided situation in my memory.
(Screenshot of RCP website)
As shown in the figure below, as of the end of September, the two were still very close in the swing states, but since early October, they have begun to diverge, and the trend is strengthening, and the gap between the two is widening.
If this trend continues, Trump will win an overwhelming victory in the election. As shown in the figure below.
If we observe the market, we will find that the market has clearly given its answer: Trump will win the election.
Ten indicators for reference:
1. Bookmaker odds
2. Trump Media Technology Group ("DJT")
3. Rumble
4. Mexican peso and US dollar
5. Ten-year US Treasury yield
6. Bitcoin
7. Steel industry
8. Banks
9. Prisons and shelters
10. Automobiles (Tesla vs. General Motors)
(In addition, there are other Trump concept stocks, the above is for reference only)
1. Bookmaker odds
The following figure shows the winning rate of major gambling platforms counted by RCP. The latest average: Trump's winning rate is 60.0%, and Harris's is 38.6%. (The platforms listed in the figure below, such as Betfair and Polymarket, are very common and can be seen occasionally in various public account articles or media)
In terms of time, it is highly consistent with the poll numbers in swing states: the two were very close until the end of September (Harris was once in the lead), but they began to diverge since early October, and the gap between the two accelerated.
2. Trump Media Technology Group ("DJT")
DJT controls Trump's social media TruthSocial, which is considered to be the most direct indicator of Trump's politics in the market. It began to rise in late September and has risen 169% in the past month, indicating that the market is betting on Trump to win this election.
3. Rumble (RUM)
MAGA/right-wing video and social media platform, as an alternative to left-wing/Democratic Internet giants' social media platforms such as YouTube. Peter Thiel, JD Vance, and Vivek Ramaswamy (MAGA politician who participated in the Republican presidential primary) participated in early investment. It has risen 16% in the past month.
4. Mexican Peso and US Dollar
Trump has repeatedly stressed that he will significantly increase tariffs on Mexico after taking office and restrict imports from Mexico, especially the automobile industry (including the US and Chinese automobile industries that invest in Mexico), claiming to increase tariffs to 200%, "not allowing a single car to be imported from Mexico to the United States." Everything is aimed at protecting and boosting the domestic manufacturing industry in the United States. Since October, the Mexican peso has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, indicating that the market believes that Trump will win the election.
Trump claims to raise tariffs on major trading partners and eliminate unequal trade terms to protect domestic industries in the United States and revitalize the US manufacturing industry. Since October, the US dollar has also been strengthening, which is also partly attributed to the market's belief that Trump is likely to win the election.
5. Ten-year US Treasury yield
On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a sharp interest rate cut of 50 basis points. At this time, the US ten-year Treasury yield reached a low point. But since October, with the increase in expectations that Trump will win the election, the yield began to climb and reached the level before the rate cut. The market expects that if Trump comes to power, there will be further substantial tax cuts. These policies are conducive to growth, but they will also increase the government deficit and increase the risk of inflation in the medium and long term. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield also rose accordingly, reaching 4.2%, returning to the level before the rate cut. It is not a bad idea to understand that the 10-year Treasury bond yield has assumed that Trump won the election.
6. Bitcoin
As we all know, Trump has shown a very friendly attitude towards virtual currencies. The market believes that if Trump comes to power, Bitcoin will no longer face regulatory risks, and the related uncertainties and discounts will be swept away. Therefore, the performance of Bitcoin is an important indicator of whether Trump can be elected. Since October 11, Bitcoin has risen by more than 10%, indicating that the market believes that Trump will win the election.
7. Steel industry
Trump has repeatedly emphasized the need to revitalize traditional industries in the United States, including traditional energy and steel industries. In comparison, oil and gas are more affected by international geopolitics, while the steel industry is more local and more controllable, and is a better indicator. Since the beginning of October, the stock price of US Steel has risen by 10%.
8. Banks
One of Trump’s core policy themes is “deregulation”. For the financial industry, he proposed to remove all kinds of complicated regulations set up after the 2008 financial crisis (mostly proposed by the Democratic Party). Therefore, bank stocks are also a weathervane of Trump’s politics. Since mid-June, bank stocks have risen by 22%. It can be noted that the trend of bank stocks is highly correlated with the ups and downs of Kamala Harris and Trump. When Kamala Harris replaced Biden in the election and the momentum was good, bank stocks fell; Trump lost in the debate with Kamala Harris on September 10, and bank stocks also fell, but have been rising steadily since October, indicating that the market believes that Trump may be elected.
9. Prisons and shelters
Prisons, detentions, and shelters are an industry in the United States, operated by private companies, and have entered the capital market and have a listed company. Trump claimed that he would strengthen the fight against crime, detain and deport illegal immigrants after taking office, which also led to the rise of prison concept stocks. The leading company GEOGroup has risen by 20% in the past month, indicating that the market believes that Trump will win the election.
10. Automobiles (Tesla vs. General Motors)
Finally, let’s talk about Tesla. In theory, Musk's full support for Trump should have some benefits. In fact, Trump still denounced electric vehicles in all election activities and advocated vigorously promoting fossil fuels and oil vehicles. He often suddenly remembered Musk after scolding electric vehicles and hurried to say a few good words. But this cannot change the fact that electric vehicles will no longer have the strategic position in the United States given by the Biden-Harris Democratic government in the Trump administration. This is also reflected in Tesla's stock price: since October, the stock price has fallen by 13.6%. This shows that the market believes that Trump will win the election, and Musk's electric vehicle business will not benefit from it.
In contrast, traditional American car companies. Take General Motors as an example. The stock price has risen by 11% since October. This shows that the market believes that Trump will win the election, and traditional car companies (mainly in the oil vehicle business) will benefit from it.
In summary, it can be seen that the market has "voted with its feet" and judged that Trump will win the 2024 US election.
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