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Reporter : Wang Junyi / Editor : Li Muen / https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/24/10/30/n14360637.htm / Image : In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris (left) versus Republican presidential candidate Trump (right). (Wu Xianglian/Epoch Times synthesis)
According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday (29 October 2024), at this stage of the U.S. presidential election, the support rates of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Trump are 44% and 43% respectively, and Kamala Harris’s lead has shrunk to 1 percentage point.
According to Reuters, the three-day poll showed that the two candidates were neck and neck in support. The survey has a margin of error of about plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Vice President Harris has led former President Trump in every Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters since she entered the race in July but her lead has been shrinking since late September. In the last Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from 16 to 21 October, she led Trump by two percentage points.
The survey was conducted among 1,150 American adults across the United States, including 975 registered voters. The results show that Trump is clearly ahead of Kamala on the issues that voters consider most pressing.
When asked who of the two candidates has better solutions for the economy, unemployment and employment, 47% of the respondents chose Trump and 37% chose Kamala.
Throughout the campaign, Trump has had the upper hand on the economy. In the latest poll, 26% of respondents believe that jobs and the economy are the most pressing issues in the United States, while 24% and 18% believe that political extremism and immigration are the most pressing issues respectively.
In terms of policy, Trump's biggest advantage may be immigration. He has proposed tough plans, including mass deportations of illegal immigrants. In a recent poll, about 48% of voters said Trump’s immigration policy was the best, higher than the 33% who chose Kamala.
Polls also show Harris' lead on political extremism is shrinking. About 40% of voters surveyed said she was better at dealing with political extremism and threats to democracy, with 38% choosing Trump. In the last poll, Kamala was 7 percentage points ahead of Trump on extremism.
In the evening of Tuesday (29 October 2024), Kamala delivered what her campaign called "the last important pre-election speech" at an outdoor rally near the White House. At the rally, she emphasized Trump's role in the events at the Capitol on 6 January 2021, saying that Trump's supporters were trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
Trump countered that Kamala's views were so extreme that they were tantamount to allowing socialists to take over the U.S. government.
Even if Kamala can maintain her slim lead, it may not be enough to win the November 5 election.
While national polls reflect the views of voters, the key to victory or defeat is the electoral votes of each state, and seven key battleground states could prove decisive. Polls show that in these key states, Kamala and Trump have similar support rates.
In the 2016 election, Trump defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, who received 227 electoral votes, with 304 electoral votes, even though Clinton led the national popular vote by two percentage points.
Given the closeness of the race, a candidate's ability to ensure that supporters actually vote could be the difference between victory and defeat.
Two-thirds of American adults voted in the 2020 election, the highest turnout in more than a century, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and Pew Research Center.
The latest poll shows that about 89% of registered Democrats and 93% of registered Republicans say they will definitely vote. That suggests voters may be more enthusiastic to vote this year than they were four years ago.
At the end of October 2020, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans said they would definitely vote.
In the latest poll, among those most likely to vote, Harris led Trump by 1 percentage point, 47% to 46%.
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