Research, editing : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA
The situation in Zhongnanhai is turbulent. Analysis: Zhang Youxia may become a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo as a military official
Editor: Zhongkang / Source: NTDTV / https://www.aboluowang.com/2024/1031/2123304.html / Image of Zhang Youxia : Video Screenshot
Various signs show that the internal struggles in the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party are becoming increasingly fierce. There are even rumours that the military power of the Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping has been weakened, and Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of the Military Commission, has made unusually frequent high-profile appearances. Some analysts believe that it is not ruled out that Zhang Youxia will enter the Politburo Standing Committee as a representative of the military during the period of political turmoil.
Since June 2024, Zhang Youxia has made at least more than ten high-profile appearances after attending the Political Work Conference of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, including rare meetings with the U.S. President's National Security Advisor Sullivan and Russian Defense Minister.
Recently, from 14 to 15 October 2024, the Chinese Communist Party's All-Army Military Theory Work Conference was held in Beijing. Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, attended and spoke. However, Xi Jinping, as the chairman of the Military Commission, did not attend the meeting and only made so-called "important instructions" on the meeting.
On 28 October 2024, Xi Jinping presided over the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China. CCTV footage showed that Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of the Military Commission, who ranked first, was still sitting in the second row behind the Politburo Standing Committee meeting table, while He Weidong, the second vice chairman of the Military Commission, was sitting in the first row.
On 30 October 2024, independent commentator Cai Shenkun analyzed in his self-media program that the ranking of the Beijing Political Bureau meeting is based on the strokes of the surnames. The character Zhang has more strokes than the character He, so it is normal for Zhang to sit behind He. There have been many activities in the military recently. Zhang has changed his previous low-key style and frequently appeared but He Weidong has not been seen much.
On 17 October 2024, Xi Jinping inspected a brigade of the Chinese Rocket Force, accompanied by Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Military Commission. However, in the report of the mainland media Caixin.com, it is rare to put Xi and Zhang's names side by side in the title, which is accused of sending sensitive signals.
From 20 to 22 October 2024, the Chinese Communist Party held a field meeting on the combined training of the entire army in Zhangjiakou, Hebei. Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, attended and spoke, and at the same time made arrangements for the combined training of the troops.
Cai Shenkun said that in this speech, Zhang Youxia did not mention Xi Jinping's speech when inspecting the Rocket Force, nor did he mention political training or political army building, let alone words like obeying Xi's command or loyalty.
From 24 to 26 October 2024, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, visited Vietnam and was met by General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam To Lin, President Luang Cuong, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. His visit to Vietnam sparked speculation of his status.
Cai Shenkun said that if Zhang Youxia went to Vietnam this time just to discuss military cooperation, there should be no need for these giants to meet. The statement of the Chinese Ministry of Defense did not reveal the content of the military cooperation discussed by the two sides, but only mentioned that Zhang expressed the need to follow the general trend of history and continuously strengthen exchanges and cooperation in various fields such as politics, economy, security, and humanities.
Cai Shenkun believes that Zhang Youxia's remarks actually exceeded the scope of the authority of the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission. To a certain extent, he seemed to be showing that he had gained greater power. This statement also just confirms a statement that Zhang's power has been rising overseas in recent times.
Cai Shenkun analyzed that Zhang's three-day visit to Vietnam was the focus of media attention. The new President of Vietnam, Luang Cuong, was originally the Minister of the General Political Department of the Vietnamese Army. In May this year, he became the Standing Secretary of the Secretariat of the Communist Party of Vietnam and became the President in October. Zhang Youxia met with him because he wanted to have a more suitable position.
Zhang Youxia, aged 74 in 2024, is also the oldest member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China. Cai Shenkun said that according to the traditional rules of the Communist Party of China, he should withdraw from the political stage at such an advanced age, but considering the special nature of the military, it is possible for an elderly military leader to squeeze into the Standing Committee at the state level. For example, in the 1980s, Liu Huaqing, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, squeezed into the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee when he was nearly 80 years old. It is not ruled out that during the period of political turmoil, Zhang entered the Standing Committee as a representative of the military and played a role in stabilizing the military.
Current affairs commentator Zhou Xiaohui previously wrote in the Epoch Times that Zhang Youxia received a high-level reception from the Vietnamese side. Such courtesy is very rare, just like the treatment of Premier Li Qiang who visited not long ago. Judging from the content of Zhang Youxia's meeting with three senior Vietnamese officials reported by the Vietnamese media, it once again shows signs of power changes in Beijing Zhongnanhai and Xi's military power falling into the hands of others.
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