Sunday, September 13, 2020

Hong Kong mass virus testing not necessary as the third wave is not severe

 Report by : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA


News (1)

26 new covid cases have emerged from mass virus testing

In Hong Kong, the Universal Community Testing Program (National Testing) covering 57 testing centres in 18 districts has entered its last day on 14 September 2020. As of 13 September, a total of 1.719 million samples were taken, 1.667 million samples were tested, and 26 new cases were revealed. 

The Director of Food and Health, Chen Zhaoshi, had expected about 5 million people to participate. Later, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor clarified that 5 million refers to the testing capacity, not the testing target. Besides, Hong Kong government officials uniformly stated that there was no testing target. 

However, the Secretary of the Civil Service, Nie Dequan, yesterday "changed his tone", saying that the number exceeded 1.7 million and that 26 new cases had been revealed, which had reached the "main target." Some experts believe that the Hong Kong government previously overestimated the 1,500 asymptomatic patients in the community. If there is an outbreak in the future, it is "not meaningful" to conduct a national test.

Carrie Lam led a senior official to hold a press conference in early August. At the time, she said that based on the results of high-risk groups and deducting high-risk factors, it was estimated that there were about 1,500 invisible patients in Hong Kong. The Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong also calculated in early September that if the entire territory is tested, 494 people will be tested positive for the virus, of which 280 will be found to be infectious. 

However, as of 13 September, 26 new cases have been found in Hong Kong, which is far lower than the Hong Kong government's estimate. 

The positive rate of the national test is temporarily 0.00156%.

News (2)

There are still up to 50 asymptomatic patients in Hong Kong

Hong Fanyi, a clinical professor in the Department of Internal Medicine at the University of Hong Kong, said yesterday in the "Positive Good Sunday" of Commercial Taiwan TV that the current confirmed cases are in accordance with statistical projections, also known as the end of the epidemic. Many asymptomatic patients have recovered and may not be found. There are still 40 to 50 invisible patients. He believes that the national test is useful, and it is more effective if 60 to 70% of the population of Hong Kong participates and when the epidemic peaks.

When Nie Dequan attended the "City Forum" in Hong Kong and Taiwan yesterday, he was asked whether he was satisfied with the participation of about 1.7 million people. He responded that he hoped that the public would participate as much as possible. Because this time is voluntary, the participation rate is difficult to reach 100%. aims". He also said that no matter how many cases are found in the end, the government will generally have a good grasp of the situation in the community. If the number is low, the epidemic will tend to ease and come to an end.

News (3)

Preparing for the third round of tests for employees in residential care homes for the elderly

Nie Dequan said that the national testing is a single measure, and the testing of high-risk groups will continue and expand, including elderly homes, restaurants, hotel frontline employees, etc., will be repeatedly tested. If there is a community outbreak, resources will be concentrated for individual outbreak areas and rapid testing. 

Dequan said that under the three-pronged strategy, the Hospital Authority, the Department of Health, high-risk groups and national testing have completed more than 3 million sample tests in Hong Kong. The Director of Labor and Welfare Luo Zhiguang mentioned in his blog yesterday that the Social Welfare Department is now preparing to conduct the third round of tests for the employees of residential care homes, with the goal of launching within this week.

Respiratory specialist Liang Zichao believes that the Hong Kong government originally overestimated the number of invisible patients in the community, coupled with the Hong Kong government taking the lead in working from home, the business community responded, and the public also stayed at home to maintain safe physical distancing. This gradually brought down the epidemic and gradually cut off the chain of asymptomatic transmission. Therefore, relatively few cases were found. 

Zichao believes that if there is a new covid epidemic in the future, resources should be concentrated on testing for individual outbreak areas, which is more cost-effective, and it is "not meaningful" to conduct nationwide testing.

News (4)

Xu Shuchang: Mass testing not essential, good border control is most crucial

Xu Shuchang, Chair Professor of Respiratory Department of CUHK, said that finding more than 23 confirmed cases is not a small number, because patients may cause second and third generation transmission. If the infection of the elderly leads to admission to the intensive care unit, the cost will be high by then, and it will also affect the economy.  

Shuchang also said that national testing is usually done when there is a large-scale outbreak. He said, "I believe that Hong Kong does not need to allocate resources specifically to implement it. The most important thing is to do a good job of border control."

Chen Peiran, a member of the medical legislature, believes that the test has great political benefits, including Carrie Lam's gratitude for the support of the central government and helping her continue to govern Hong Kong when her administration popularity is low.

Source : Ming Pao

Ref: https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%e6%b8%af%e8%81%9e/article/20200914/s00002/1600020796302/%e6%b8%af%e5%ba%9c%e6%94%b9%e5%8f%a3%e9%a2%a8-%e7%a8%b1%e6%8e%a1%e6%a8%a3%e9%80%be170%e8%90%ac%e6%ac%a1%e9%81%94%e6%a8%99-%e6%9a%ab%e6%8f%ad26%e5%ae%97%e6%96%b0%e7%97%87%e9%81%a0%e4%bd%8e%e6%8e%a8%e7%ae%97-%e5%b0%88%e5%ae%b6-%e6%97%a5%e5%be%8c%e7%88%86%e7%96%ab%e5%86%8d%e6%99%ae%e6%aa%a2%e6%84%8f%e7%be%a9%e4%b8%8d%e5%a4%a7

 

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Picture : The error in Changi app

 Picture, copyright by : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA