Host : Li Dayu / https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2020/11/02/a102977005.html / Translation, editing : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA / Image : First Lady Melania Trump and US President Trump are overwhelmingly popular in the US during the countdown to the US General Election. As Trump speaks directly to the voters and deals directly with their livelihood concerns, he strikes resonance with many Americans in their concerns. Let's pray Trump will be re-elected and bring America and the world a better future.
News (1)
Trump the "darling" of the media inspire bold European politicians similar to Trump
The U.S. election is getting closer, and U.S. politicians and politicians are also paying more and more attention. The US President Trump, who was originally a TV personality, announced his candidacy in 2016. Although many people did not favor him at first and thought he was just for fun, his popularity has not diminished since the beginning. No matter whether he is the favourite or not, he is really the "darling" of the media. Whether it is the left-wing media criticizing Trump for attracting points, or the right-wing media supporting Trump to attract likes, he has won not a small popularity. There may be many reasons why Trump became so popular, but from a political point of view, he is very different from familiar Washington politicians, who dare to speak the language most familiar to the grassroots and the attitude closest to them. After Trump appeared, in Europe controlled by leftist politicians, some bold and maverick politicians similar to Trump's speech have also emerged. They are all compared to the local version of Trump.
News (2)
Dutch Trump praises Trump. Trump won the election by foreign fans. Will California become popular?
At a time when the U.S. elections are hot, someone found on the Internet the "Dutch version of Trump" Geert Wilders who had run off at least three years ago. This person's views are even more intense. In his speech, he directly put forward a clear "anti-Islamic" proposition, that is not only very sensitive in Europe, but also very dangerous. In addition, he also advocated that the Netherlands should withdraw from the European Union and stop accepting a large number of war refugees to enjoy the high welfare of the Netherlands. Take the immigration issue as an example. The leader of the Dutch Liberal Party said that most of the refugees who go to the Netherlands are young men, many from the war-torn Middle East. Wilders said that if they are just for safety, they can stay in Turkey. If they think that Turkey is not safe enough, they can stay there when they cross the sea and arrive in Greece, but they are not. These refugees travel through mountains and rivers and leave Greece, traveled through six or seven countries, including Hungary, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, France, etc., and finally arrived in the Netherlands, just to get Dutch social welfare. His views are also quite popular in the Netherlands. In his parliamentary speech in the Netherlands, he once praised Trump as a clear stream in American politics, and criticized the left-wing politicians in the Netherlands for being timid and arrogant and "blind", unable to see or want to see the social problems.
The word Trump has now become a symbol of world politics. In the eyes of almost global opponents, it seems that he is the tearer of globalism and various leftist ideologies, and his speech and behavior are in their impressions. The political elites of the United States are far apart but in the eyes of supporters, perhaps the Dutch version of Trump’s evaluation is in place. They believe that Trump is not the kind of timid and blind politician, but dares to look directly at the people. With substantial issues of concern Trump supporters all over the world are also touched by his characteristics. Therefore, in addition to the United States, Trump also has a wave of supporters internationally. They organize activities before the election and shout cheer from the air. Compared with Biden, there are hardly relevant reports.
For example, in Israel, people held a motorcycle parade. They planted flags supporting Trump and walked through the ancient streets of the area.
In the United States, similar scenes are more common.
In "St. Paul", Minnesota, it was originally Biden’s car rally here in the afternoon of October 30. However, according to the introduction of voters at the scene, many Trump supporters went to give Biden a drink. Even when some people approach the entrance of the rally, they can see Biden's position and shout slogans inside. Participants said that the number of Trump supporters at the scene was more than the number of cars in the Biden car rally.
Trump also met in Minnesota on the same day. In 2016, Trump lost here by a small margin of 1.5%. But looking at the number of supporters at the scene, it seems that the Trump team has the momentum to comeback in this state this year.
In California, where the Democratic Party has a large vote, Trump's popularity is unprecedented. California is the most populous state in the United States with nearly 40 million people. It is also the state with the most votes in the Electoral College, with a total of 55. The votes of these Electoral Colleges are comparable to those of Idaho, Kansas, Arkansas and other central and southern United States. The number of states combined is even greater. Although from the data point of view, California has added millions of registered Democratic voters in the past four years, while Republican voters have only increased by a few hundred thousand but Trump's voter enthusiasm here this year is significantly higher than in 2016.
On the last day of October, thousands of California voters held the last Trump rally in Beverly Hills. The crowd began to gather in the morning. In the afternoon, except for the crowds standing in Beverly Hills Park, the park was full. The sidewalks of the street are also full of people. Chinese Americans also made their mark in the rally. Some people who participated in the rally told the media that the number of people this time has increased several times compared to before. Moreover, some voters threw out rhetoric at the scene. They want California to become red!
A similar miracle was created by Trump in 2016. Although it is not California, it has also turned the long-term Democratic Blue State to red, including Pennsylvania. Since 1988, the Republican presidential candidate has never won Pennsylvania until 2016, when Trump made Pennsylvania red.
News (3)
Trump's four rallies a day in Pennsylvania have unprecedented popularity data analysis concluding "Pennsylvania wins the world"
There is a saying in the US presidential election that "the one who wins in Florida will win the world" but Pennsylvania seems to have played an equally important or even more important role in this election.
On October 31, Trump, who was seeking re-election, held four rallies in Pennsylvania at one go. He mentioned that “Pennsylvania will save the American dream” and reminded voters that the Philadelphia area may become a place for fraudulent mailed ballots. He asked the voters to try to vote at the polling station.
Voters are also very supportive. Several rallies in Trump's Pennsylvania were overwhelmingly crowded, giving Trump and supporters a lot of confidence. The number of people at one of the gatherings reached a record 58,000. The temperature in Pennsylvania on this day was still very low. There were many areas in the northeastern United States where it had just snowed the day before. The 74-year-old Trump wore black gloves to keep warm at the rally on October 31. He told voters, "I am very cold here. You do me a favor, go vote."
On October 31, the miracle of the crowds created by Trump’s four rallies in Pennsylvania attracted the attention of many American voters. While polls still showed that Biden was ahead, the opposite was often seen at the Trump rallies. The number of people at the scene of Biden and Harris, on the contrary, is more like the data reported to Trump in current polls, and it looks much lower. A celebrity in the United States ridiculed Biden, saying that the number of people at Biden's rally may not be full of a minivan.
Judging from the rally scene, it is no doubt that Trump won Pennsylvania. But when predicting election trends, Trump team’s predictions must still refer to some of the previous poll indicators. If they want to win, they cannot make the best plans in the election battle and build momentum. They have to deal with the worst. Therefore, according to an unsatisfactory assumption, Pennsylvania has become the key state among the key states in this election. In fact, it is not only Trump, but also Biden. As of the 31st, the two sides have smashed more than US$54 million in advertising costs, except Florida, the largest in any state in the United States. Now let’s use data to explain why Pennsylvania is so important.
According to the voting tradition of American voters, some traditional red states, such as Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, etc., have a total of 20 states, which will definitely vote for Trump. Trump already has 125 electoral votes in hand.
As for Biden, a total of 19 states including California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Hawaii, Illinois, etc. may have to vote for Biden to a large extent. These states have a large number of electoral votes, so there are 222 votes in total, which is more than Trump by almost 100 votes.
Then there are still 11 states that are not sure who they will vote for. These states have a total of 191 electoral votes, which is a lot. There are a total of 538 electoral votes in the United States, and anyone who can get at least 270 can be elected president. So these 11 states are critical.
If Georgia and Texas of the remaining 11 states are given to Trump and Minnesota to Biden, then the adjusted numbers are 232 for Biden and 179 for Trump. Some friends said that Georgia and Texas would obviously vote for Trump, but this year the Democratic Party claimed that they had the opportunity to turn these two states blue, so they were counted among the uncertain states, but these two states have historically still a lot of people who vote for the Republican Party, so now it is still counted to Trump. Minnesota is the same. In the early stage, the candidates of the two parties are evenly matched. However, in recent history, it has voted more for the Democratic Party, so it is temporarily awarded to Biden.
Well, there are still 8 states left without a decision. Including Michigan and Wisconsin, two more critical states, the Biden team did not ignore the importance of Wisconsin in 2016 like Hillary did, and increased the number of activities, while in Michigan, Biden’s people have been very stable and solid. Although Trump may continue to make them popular, let's keep the budget a little bit, so we assume awarding them to Biden.
Similarly, in the remaining states of Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida, although both candidates have hopes of winning, Trump won North Carolina and Florida in 2016 while Democratic voters have been here in the past four years. Both states have shrunk again. In Ohio, based on the previous data, Trump has won a little bit more. Even the polls show that Trump is a bit ahead, so let's assume awarding all three states to Trump.
Combining these additions and subtractions, Trump has caught up. He can get 241 electoral votes, while Biden has 258. The two are only 17 votes short.
Now, the math problems are left in the three states of Arizona, Iowa and Pennsylvania.
Among them, according to polls, Arizona is currently in a tug-of-war between the two sides, but Trump has a bigger win, because although the population structure here has changed greatly, Republican voters are still a force to be underestimated. Trump also won in 2016 and took down Arizona. We still give this state to Trump.
Also in Iowa, the U.S. "Des Moines Chronicle" in the last week before the 2016 election accurately predicted Iowa's voting trends. The polls in the last week before the election this year, "Des Moines Chronicle" "Iowa State was awarded to Trump, so even Trump can win Iowa State.
Then Iowa plus Arizona has exactly 17 electoral votes. In this way, Trump has reached a tie with Biden on the electoral votes, and each has 258 electoral votes. Then who can enter The White House’s threshold of 270 votes depends on the rest of Pennsylvania.
The situation in this state is rather complicated. Unlike other states, it can be judged to candidates from either party through historical trends or a more acceptable general knowledge. There are both the grandeur of Trump voters and the insistence of the Democratic Party’s traditional blue zone. There is the possibility of cheating in Philadelphia’s Democratic region, which Trump warned, and there are also unplanned factors that may delay the announcement of a large number of mailed votes. Moreover, among the six most critical states given by USA Today, this is the state with the most electoral votes except Florida, with 20. Florida is likely to be taken away by Trump, then these 20 Pennsylvania cards have become an important factor that can determine the overall situation.
However, it must be a prediction. We can look at it from this perspective. Trump supports hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas production. Many blue-collar workers in Pennsylvania rely on this industry for their livelihoods. Biden clearly stated in Pennsylvania that hydraulic fracturing will be banned. This makes it difficult for people in related industries in this state to choose Vote for Biden. Let's look at the popularity of Trump's rally in Pennsylvania, so I think it is still relatively high that Pennsylvania will vote for Trump in the end. In other words, through the above conservative estimation, Trump should also win re-election.
News (4)
"The Bald Eagle appears at Biden rally" was ridiculed. Will the announcement of the election result be postponed?
Trump’s campaign team said on November 1 that they are expected to win more than 290 electoral votes, enabling Trump to be re-elected. Trump’s good friend, Gingrich, the former Republican speaker of the US House of Representatives, gave a bolder prediction, saying it was bold. He himself believed in the results of the prediction. He believes that Trump will get better results than in 2016, with 326 electoral votes to be re-elected, and in 2016, Trump eventually won 306 electoral votes.
The well-known American election website 270towin, on their interactive map of the general election, predicts that Biden will receive 290 electoral votes based on poll data.
Yesterday, someone shared images of Biden's rally in Iowa on the Internet, saying that at the end of Biden's rally, there were two bald eagles symbolizing the United States hovering over the Biden venue. Biden supporters thought this was a good sign, but Trump supporters replied that the number of people at Trump’s rally was tens of thousands, and the bald eagle can keenly perceive that any prey is about to die and will soon die. So they hovered in the sky and waited, preparing for a full meal.
What’s special about this year’s election is that many Democratic states are pushing mail voting on the excuse of the epidemic, which increases the time for counting votes. Therefore, some media are even worried that it will not be like in previous years, on the night of the election or the early morning of the next day. Earlier there will be results, people may have to wait longer for the final result of who will win, and it may take up to a week. But this is just a worry for now.
If according to the normal ticketing time, at 7pm Eastern Time on November 3, people will know the result of the ticketing in 7 states including Georgia. At 7:30pm, the key state North Carolina may have the result, Ohio the state is also this time. At 8 o’clock in the evening, a series of states, almost 19 states, may have voting results, including Florida and Pennsylvania, that is, if nothing happens, the results of Pennsylvania and Florida will continue at 8 o’clock. After it comes out, you can roughly determine the final winner.
After that, there was a billing wave at 8:30 and 9 o’clock. After 10 pm, people often have to wait a little longer, because the areas where votes are counted are often slower to count votes, such as Nevada and Iowa. , Montana, etc. At 11 o'clock, the deep blue state California is about to open the ballots, and the other two West Coast states also open the ballots at this time, but the suspense is not big, because these three states generally vote for the Democratic Party. At 1 o'clock in the middle of the night, there are also two states with little suspense, one Hawaii, the traditional blue state, and the other Alaska. Trump has a higher chance of winning.
To put it to the point, if nothing unexpected happens, the winner of the general election can basically be predicted after 8 o'clock in the evening on November 3, and after 10 o'clock in the evening, both sides will basically prepare their own victory or defeat speeches. Of course, Hillary did not make a defeat speech in 2016.
According to the above schedule, everyone can browse the web or YouTube on time, or stay by the TV, waiting for the results of the general election.
News (5)
Has the wind direction changed? ABC hits little Biden, CNN publishes article to support Trump
Now, the general election voting has not yet begun, but the mainstream media has changed. It seems that they have made internal estimates for the election results. This trend is very unfavorable for Biden.
On October 30, the Wall Street Journal published a review article with three words in the headline: Trump has won. This is a pun. He wants to say that Trump is expected to win re-election. He also clearly stated in the article that Trump's efforts to develop the economy and restore law and order in American society deserve recognition and should be re-elected.
On the same day, CNN, which has been criticizing Trump for his career, went uncharacteristically and published a commentary saying: Trump is worthy of a second term.
At the same time, the mainstream media unexpectedly began to face the Biden family scandal at the last minute before the election.
CNN’s signature leftist host, Jake Tapper, declared on the show that Hunter Biden’s problem with the corrupt Ukrainian oil and gas company Brisma is indeed “smelly”.
On October 30, ABC TV made a more direct report, introducing that Biden flew to the Ukrainian capital Kiev when the Ukrainian civil war broke out in 2014. Just three weeks after his visit to Kiev, he was accused of corruption in Ukraine. Brisma Corporation promoted Biden's son Hunter Biden to the board of directors and gave him millions of dollars each year. What's even more surprising is that ABC TV, which had avoided talking about the Biden scandal and reported a lot of Trump's negative news, even introduced the embarrassing background of Hunter Biden in the report. While Brisma included Hunter Biden on the board of directors, Hunter Biden was expelled from the Navy Reserve for drug use and had no experience in the natural gas industry.
Above, the mainstream media’s 180-degree turn before the election is truly amazing. It may be that they internally estimated that Biden’s chances of entering the White House are small, so they have also changed the direction of the wind and left a “back path” for themselves.
News (6)
Little Biden’s laptop contains a large number of official phone numbers while the FBI director may be involved in the Biden's scandal
Regarding Hunter Biden's scandal, the media also dug up more details. It was discovered that the three laptops he sent to Delaware for repair in April 2019 contained not only a lot of heavy information about government officials, but also a lot of private personal information, and there was no encryption. The computer password was very simple, it was Hunter02. , Some information security experts criticized this move as really unaware of security.
These heavy pieces of information are not only Biden’s family information, but also the contact information of as many as 1,500 people including former President Clinton and his wife, former Secretary of State John Kerry, and former FBI director, including a large number of private mobile phone numbers. This involves major national security risks.
There is also news that the current FBI Director Christopher Ray emptied his resume before the head of the authorities. He was once the legal representative of the Russian energy company Rosneft. At that time, the CCP bought a large amount of shares in the Russian company in violation of the US ban. Ray was probably the insider or even the person involved at the time. If this is the case, he helped Russian companies escape the US ban, which is a crime. According to external analysis, the FBI had already obtained the laptop computer for the Hunter Biden scandal, but the delay in handling the case may be due to the fact that it contained a record of Biden’s dealings with the Russian oil company, which might be detrimental to him. The US media has reported that after Trump plans to be re-elected, he will fire the current FBI Director Christopher Ray and replace him with another person.
While the U.S. media digs into the Biden family's illicit materials, some Chinese media are also digging into the CCP's materials. In particular, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee that has just concluded is still attracting attention.
News (7)
Eight people will be absent from the Fifth Plenary! Inside story or not simple
Some Chinese media found that there should have been 204 members of the Central Committee and 168 alternate members. However, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee officially announced that only 198 members of the Central Committee were present and 166 alternate members were present. In total, 8 people were missing. Where are they?
These include Zheng Xiaosong, Director of the Liaison Office of the Macao Special Administrative Region, who fell to his death in October 2018; Liu Shiyu, the former Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, was investigated and punished in October 2019 and was given a punishment of staying in the party for probation.
In addition, the Xinjiang Party Committee Secretary Chen Quanguo was absent. The official media reported that he went to Kashgar, Xinjiang to investigate the epidemic on October 26, or it is not over yet, indicating that the local epidemic is serious.
Zhao Zongqi, Commander of the Western Theater Command, and Liu Wanlong, commander of the Xinjiang Military Region, were also absent. Outsiders suspected that they might be involved in the Sino-Indian border conflict.
Hubei governor Wang Xiaodong was absent after it was reported that he was ill.
Another important absentee is the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and the dean of the Central Party History and Literature Research Institute of the Communist Party of China. It is still unclear to the outside world why he was absent. Dong Hong, who had been sacked before, was cold-melt deputy and Wang Qishan's previous capable man. The absence of this expert in the field of CCP ideology is easily reminiscent of Dong Hong's case but the official media did not have any news about the background of his absence.
The scandal of the Biden family in the United States has been exposed by a few media and media of different backgrounds can at least choose to report or not. Under the CCP, everything is in a dark box, and the media can only act under the direction of the party, looking at their faces.
No comments:
Post a Comment