Reporter : Li Xiaokui / https://www.secretchina.com/news/gb/2020/11/16/952685.html / Translation, editing : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA
The covid epidemic has resumed across China. The authorities have urgently adopted control measures, and many people's outing trips have also failed. In this regard, Chinese national defense experts pointed out that it is predicted that Chinese tourists will not be able to travel abroad until the spring of 2022.
Mainland media reported that Zhang Wenhong, leader of the Shanghai novel coronavirus pneumonia medical treatment expert team and director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Huashan Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Fudan University, said at the forum in Beijing on 13 November that the pandemic will still be difficult to completely disappear in the next one or two years because the current 50 million infected people are only a small part of the number. With the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines on the market and the increase in population coverage, by the spring of 2022, perhaps everyone can "walk" around the world again.
He pointed out that there has never been a time in human history that a virus was eliminated by humans. "As a virus with a very high transmission rate, if the vaccination rate does not reach 60%. we can’t prevent transmission and disease.” He reminded that even if the vaccine can be marketed as early as the beginning of next year or the end of this year, the supply and popularity of the vaccines and the extent to which it can provide protection, in fact, still do not clear.
He believes that it will be difficult for the pandemic to completely disappear in the next one or two years. "The vaccine will be on the market today and the virus will disappear tomorrow? This is impossible."
As for the effect of the vaccines on the market in the future, Zhang Wenhong said that SARS-CoV-2 has become a "resident virus" and covid has a high fatality rate. "It may not be possible to have a vaccine", but without a vaccine, it may be difficult to achieve a global scale of epidemic prevention.
On the same day, Zhong Nanshan, leader of the high-level expert group of the Chinese Health Commission and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also made the latest research and judgment on the epidemic.
Zhong Nanshan said that covid patients with asymptomatic infection accounted for 20% to 40% of the tally, and its important feature is relatively strong infectivity. He said that "re-infection is possible." At present, he has collected at least 5 publicly published cases of re-infection, including one in Hong Kong, China.
So why is there a reinfection? Zhong Nanshan said there are two possibilities. The first is the rapid decline in antibodies produced after the first infection; the second is that there is no or only a very weak antibody response during the first infection, and neither can resist the second infection.
However, the outside world has noticed that Zhong Nanshan's attitude has changed again and again with regard to the resurgence of the covid epidemic in China and it is uncontrollable.
When the covid epidemic broke out earlier this year, Zhong Nanshan led experts to Wuhan to investigate the epidemic. At that time, he helped the CCP cover up the actual situation of the epidemic on many occasions, which led to a major outbreak in China. In February of this year, Zhong Nanshan said that cured patients would generally not be infected again; in April, Zhong Nanshan not only said that the covid epidemic is expected to be controlled by the end of April, but there will not be a large number of "asymptomatic infections" in China. However, Zhang Wenhong later pointed out that the biggest risk of this epidemic is the asymptomatic infection, and that covid will return this winter.
After many questions from the outside world, Zhong Nanshan changed his words in an exclusive interview with CNN in mid-May and said that China "the risk of the second wave of outbreaks is increasing."
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