Reporter : Zhou Hongliang
Publisher : Ming Pao
Translation, editing : Gan Yung Chyan
/ KUCINTA SETIA
Images : Picture 1 : Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat (left) is seen as the successor to Lee Hsien Loong among Singapore's fourth generation of leaders. He went to Bedok South to promote canvassing on Wednesday and raised his thumb when interacting with the people. (Ming Pao, via AFP)
Picture 2 : Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in Teck Ghee (Ming Pao, via AFP)
The Singapore general election will be held tomorrow (10 July 2020), and the People’s Action Party "4G Leaders" headed by Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat will be fully in power, only to take over the role of Prime Minister in early 2022. However, they faced many difficulties in diplomatic challenges. Singapore’s biggest problem is still the rising of Sino-US wrestling. Domestic elites have been arguing over diplomatic routes in recent years, showing the difficulty of maintaining diplomatic balance in Singapore. Singaporean political scholar Zhuang Jiaying said in an exclusive interview with this newspaper that the policy space for "non-selection of borders" in Southeast Asian countries has diminished as the interests of China and the United States have narrowed and narrowed. The draw-up may make Singapore more trapped in Sino-US friction.
The new prime minister candidate Heng Swee Keat once advocated "competition"
The current Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, has repeatedly expressed concerns over Southeast Asian countries that were forced to choose sides between China and the United States. The latest example is the "Foreign Affairs" journal that was published in June 2020, stating that China and the United States are facing "a critical choice" of cooperation or confrontation. He showed that China and the United States have important roles to play in the Asia-Pacific countries and cannot replace each other. For example, the role of the US military in regional security is difficult for Beijing to take over, but China’s role in the global supply chain and trading partners cannot be filled by the United States.
Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, said that Lee Hsien Loong adheres to the hope that China and the United States can cooperate, but whether Beijing is trying to exclude the United States or Washington is trying to prevent China from rising, there will be risks or likely to involve friction between major countries. "My interpretation is that Lee Hsien Loong is trying to warn against letting this result happen, but I don't think he has decided (how to choose the side)." He believes that how Singapore lives between China and the United States is a question that will be answered by the next Singapore government.
Lee Hsien Loong has indicated that he hopes to retire before the age of 70 (that is, February 2022). So Singapore has deployed management in the past few years by the so-called "fourth generation leaders". However, Chong Ja Ian said that none of these new leaders have put forward a clear foreign policy stance (Swee Keat said during his visit to China in 2019 that he hopes that China and the United States can establish a "coopetition" relationship, that is, co-existence of cooperation and competition). However, no clear sense of direction was provided, "This creates the impression that they can be shaken by one of them, which may give China and the United States a greater incentive to compete to influence their position, but this may lead to Singapore’s dilemma in Sino-US friction. ".
The view of "small country duty diplomacy" is under siege
As a small country, Singapore's diplomatic orientation has long been the focus of debate among domestic elites. Former Permanent Representative to the United Nations Kishore Mahbubani wrote an article in 2017, taking the "Qatar Diplomatic Crisis" as an example in 2017, reminding Singapore that "small countries must always act like small countries", saying that they are respected by major powers like founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew. The politicians of the past can never be repeated, so it is time to avoid commenting on issues involving major powers. For example, you should not make a clear statement about the China-Philippine "South China Sea Arbitration Case" that Washington is concerned about. His statement immediately spurred the suppression of new and old high-ranking officials in the diplomatic world. Another well-known retired diplomat, Bilahari Kausikan, dismissed his view as "confused, false and real dangerous", questioning that realism does not mean that he is quietly hoping to be recognized by major powers.
Chong Ja Ian believes that Singapore's diplomatic dilemma is structural. He said that the reason why Southeast Asia and other countries have been "unselecting sides" is actually based on the existence of "significant overlap" between the interests of China and the United States, giving countries adjustable policy space, but "the overlapping of interests between China and the United States has narrowed. , The policy space on behalf of countries can "not choose sides" is getting narrower and narrower." He said that due to disputes such as the novel coronavirus outbreak, political and economic decoupling, treatment of Hong Kong, the control of relations with Taiwan, and the role of international organizations, the differences between China and the United States have increased, and there is no sign of concessions. Unless major changes occur, the current trend of Sino-US relations will make it more and more difficult for countries to "not choose sides."
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