Sunday, March 29, 2020

No difference in infection rate between asymptomatic infections and confirmed cases

Copywriter : Wu Yu, Chnfund.com
Extract translation, editing : Gan Yung Chyan
                                            / KUCINTA SETIA

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The latest domestic research results in China : No difference in infection rate between asymptomatic infections and confirmed cases.

According to the First Financial Report, the problems involved with asymptomatic infection of  novel coronavirus pneumonia [ COVID-19 (covid, in short) ] are becoming more and more confusing to the public. How infectious is it?


Transmission capacity of asymptomatic infection

The First Financial Report stated the results of the dissertation published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 41, 2020, entitled "Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics of Infections in Close Contacts with Patients of Novel Coronavious  Pneumonia in Ningbo" published by Chen Yi et al.  show that the infection rate of close contacts of confirmed cases is 6.3%, and that of close contacts of asymptomatic infections is 4.11%. The researchers believe that there is no statistically significant difference in infection rates.

Covid is highly contagious, and the recurrence rate of family members, relatives, and friends is high. It is a high-risk group of infection. Among different contact methods, co-habitation and co-living infection rates are the highest, suggesting that long-term unprotected close contact is a high risk factor for covid infection.

A total of 157 locally reported confirmed cases and 30 asymptomatic infections were included in this study. A total of 157 locally reported confirmed cases and 30 asymptomatic infections were determined to be in close contact with a total of 2147. The number of close contacts in the cases was at least 0, up to 111, and an average of 11.5. Of the 2147 close contacts, a total of 110 cases developed into confirmed cases and 22 asymptomatic infections. The total infection rate of close contacts was 6.15%.

Therefore, the transmission ability of asymptomatic infection can no longer be underestimated.

The researchers found that among the close contact groups, the infection rate was calculated according to the relationship between close contacts and cases. Among close contacts, the infection rate was highest among friends / pilgrims (22.31%), followed by family members (18.01%). . Medical personnel who were in close contact did not develop an infection. After excluding the incidence data of the "super communicator" event, the infection rate of friends decreased to 15.69%, which was lower than the infection rate of family members (17.54%), and the infection rate ranked second.

The researchers further hierarchically analyzed the different contact methods of various close-connected people, and found that family members were mainly infected by eating together (18.07%) and dinners (11.75%); relatives (4.73%) were mainly infected by eating dinners; among friends (including neighbors) The main infection modes of infection are outdoor conversation (20.00%), dinner / reception / entertainment (12.50%), and infection by using the same transportation (4.55%); the general infection mode of infection is mainly in the same diagnosis and treatment hall as the case (1.94%), same supermarket, market shopping, etc. (0.56%) infection.

The research on this point is similar to that of the Beijing Center for Disease Control. On the afternoon of 22 March 2020, at a press conference on the prevention and control of covid in Beijing, Pang Xinghuo, Deputy Director of the Beijing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, introduced that the rate of follow-up among close relatives reached 17%, which was significantly higher than other people. 3% of close contacts in social relations. The family cluster epidemic accounted for the vast majority, up to 86%, and the family cluster epidemic involving the largest number of cases reached 7 people. At present, there are a large number of overseas visitors to Beijing. Once they return to their homes due to infection, there will be a higher risk of transmission to their families.

Study finds super spreaders

Researchers investigated a covid epidemic case among a Buddhist assembly congregation, and found that a female participant was the source of the cluster infection, and the patient was contagious 1 day after the onset of the disease, mainly through a shared bus and caused transmission to the other participants in the Buddhist assembly. A total of 28 people were diagnosed with covid and 4 were asymptomatic. The infection rate of close contacts was 32.99%, which was much higher than the average infection rate of 6.15%. . Researchers believe that this is a so-called "super communicator" incident. The transmission mainly occurred in an air-conditioned bus. There were 68 close contacts, 23 were diagnosed with confirmed cases of covid, and 2 were asymptomatic infections.  The infection rate reached 36.76%; the infection rate of participating in the rally was 5.61%. The second-generation recurrence rate in this case reached 33.3%. The "super communicator" in this study had 32 consecutive infections, and subsequent cases subsequently caused further spread and spread.

In addition, studies have found that short, unprotected face-to-face conversations in outdoor environments can also cause disease transmission, suggesting that the disease is highly contagious. It is necessary to develop targeted health guidelines to guide the public to do a good job of personal protection. It is recommended that during the epidemic of the disease, people should still wear masks to provide necessary protection in outdoor places with high density of people. People should maintain a safety distance of 1 metre from one another.

Ref : http://news.stcn.com/2020/0328/15776097.shtml

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 Picture, copyright by : Gan Yung Chyan, KUCINTA SETIA