Reporter : Han Mei
Editor : Yuan Ming Qing
Publisher : Sound of Hope
Ref : https://www.soundofhope.org/post/356332
Translation, editing : Gan Yung Chyan
/ KUCINTA SETIA
At the beginning of the COVID-19 (covid, in short) outbreak, the authorities first concealed the epidemic and then tried to block the epidemic source in Wuhan to alleviate the epidemic. A recent study published in Science, a top international academic journal, shows that before Wuhan was locked down on 23 January 2020, China reported only 14 per cent of confirmed cases of infection, and it is these unrecorded cases that subsequently became the main reason for the rapid spread of the epidemic, and also the core of the difficult prevention and control in the early stage of the epidemic.
The study was published on 16 March 2020 by seven authors, from the MRC Global Infectious Disease Analysis Center at Imperial College London, U.K., Melman School of Public Health, Columbia University, Department of Urban Planning and Design, University of Hong Kong, Tsinghua University Department of Earth System Science, Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling, Ministry of Education, etc.
The research team used a best-fit model to estimate that between 10 January and 23 January 2020, there are 13,118 new cases of covid in Wuhan (95% confidence interval: 2974-23435), including all diagnosed and non-infected persons were recorded. 86.2% of all infections are caused by virus transmission from undocumented individuals. Nationally, the total number of infections from 10 to 23 January is 16,829 (95% confidence interval: 3797-30271).
The research results show that before the implementation of travel restrictions and other high-level control measures in mainland China on 23 January, most people with covid infections were unrecorded. Most of them may have no severe or asymptomatic symptoms. Some infections are also transmitted through some groups. The per capita infectivity of this group is 55% of the confirmed patients, but because of the large base, it has become the main reason for the hidden and rapid spread of the epidemic.
At present, there is evidence that covid has appeared on a large scale as early as November last year or even October. The China Communist authorities concealed the epidemic, arrested eight front-line doctors who spread the truth about the epidemic, and lied about the false news that the epidemic was "preventable and controllable" and "no human-to-human transmission". Until 20 January, the official media reported that Xi Jinping had given instructions to the control of the epidemic on the night when Zhong Nanshan told CCTV that the disease was "certainly transmitted from person to person." Three days later, Wuhan City was locked down and has not yet been unblocked.
Ref :
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2), Ruiyun Li etal, Science,
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221?rss=1, 16 March 2020
Editor : Yuan Ming Qing
Publisher : Sound of Hope
Ref : https://www.soundofhope.org/post/356332
Translation, editing : Gan Yung Chyan
/ KUCINTA SETIA
At the beginning of the COVID-19 (covid, in short) outbreak, the authorities first concealed the epidemic and then tried to block the epidemic source in Wuhan to alleviate the epidemic. A recent study published in Science, a top international academic journal, shows that before Wuhan was locked down on 23 January 2020, China reported only 14 per cent of confirmed cases of infection, and it is these unrecorded cases that subsequently became the main reason for the rapid spread of the epidemic, and also the core of the difficult prevention and control in the early stage of the epidemic.
The study was published on 16 March 2020 by seven authors, from the MRC Global Infectious Disease Analysis Center at Imperial College London, U.K., Melman School of Public Health, Columbia University, Department of Urban Planning and Design, University of Hong Kong, Tsinghua University Department of Earth System Science, Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling, Ministry of Education, etc.
The research team used a best-fit model to estimate that between 10 January and 23 January 2020, there are 13,118 new cases of covid in Wuhan (95% confidence interval: 2974-23435), including all diagnosed and non-infected persons were recorded. 86.2% of all infections are caused by virus transmission from undocumented individuals. Nationally, the total number of infections from 10 to 23 January is 16,829 (95% confidence interval: 3797-30271).
The research results show that before the implementation of travel restrictions and other high-level control measures in mainland China on 23 January, most people with covid infections were unrecorded. Most of them may have no severe or asymptomatic symptoms. Some infections are also transmitted through some groups. The per capita infectivity of this group is 55% of the confirmed patients, but because of the large base, it has become the main reason for the hidden and rapid spread of the epidemic.
At present, there is evidence that covid has appeared on a large scale as early as November last year or even October. The China Communist authorities concealed the epidemic, arrested eight front-line doctors who spread the truth about the epidemic, and lied about the false news that the epidemic was "preventable and controllable" and "no human-to-human transmission". Until 20 January, the official media reported that Xi Jinping had given instructions to the control of the epidemic on the night when Zhong Nanshan told CCTV that the disease was "certainly transmitted from person to person." Three days later, Wuhan City was locked down and has not yet been unblocked.
Ref :
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2), Ruiyun Li etal, Science,
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221?rss=1, 16 March 2020
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