Sunday, May 10, 2020

The covid pandemic may have started around 6 October 2019 from PRC

Report by : Gan Yung Chyan
                  / KUCINTA SETIA



A joint-study by the University College London (UCL) and Université de la Réunion (University of Reunion Island) published on the journal Infection, Genetics and Evolution on 5 May 2020, that has not been peer-previewed, suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may have spread widely around the world from the People's Republic of China (PRC) by the end of 2019. The conclusion is reached after the universities' scholars have analyzed the genetic diversity of the virus.

The team led by UCL’s scholars analyzed data on 7666 viral genomes from covid patients worldwide. The researchers identified 198 recurring mutations in the viral genome to explore how the virus evolved in the population and gradually adapted to the human host.

They found that the same ancestor shared by these new coronaviruses came from the late 2019 and originates from Asia (PRC). Their phylogenetic estimates support that the covid pandemic started around 6 October to 11 December 2019, which may just be the time when SARS-CoV-2 jumps to the human host. 

The study does not identify the intermediate host and the city in PRC where the pandemic broke out, in Wuhan or in Guangdong, where 4 Chinese covid patients out of 9 covid patients (remainder 3 Japanese and 2 Americans) have the ancestral genome, the 'A' strain of SARS-CoV-2, are noted.

This timeframe coincidentally matches the pandemic timeframe suggested by the report "MACE E-PAI COVID-19 ANALYSIS" which StayGate discloses on 10 May 2020.

According to University College London, the results of this research not only provide clues for understanding the status of virus transmission in the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the PRC, but also provide new ideas for finding effective vaccines and drugs.

The researchers said that the distribution of these mutations is not uniform, and there are not many mutations in some parts of the viral genome. These regions are very good targets for vaccine and drug development.

Francois Balloux, one of the report’s main authors and a professor at UCL, said that in the fight against SARS-CoV-2, once the virus mutates, the vaccine or drug may no longer be effective. However, he added, “If we focus on research and development, those parts of the viral genome that are less prone to mutation may enable us to develop drugs and vaccines that last for a long time. "

Refs : 
Francois Balloux etal., Emergence of genomic diversity and recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2, Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 5 May 2020, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1567134820301829#bb0125


Wuhan lab shutdown in October 2019 as a result of a "hazardous event"?https://staygate.blogspot.com/2020/05/wuhan-lab-shutdown-in-october-2019-as.html

Peter Forster etal., Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes, PNAS, https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9241

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