Reporter : Liu Minghuan
Editor : Dai Ming
Publisher : New Tang Dynasty Television
Ref : https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2020/05/02/a102836896.html
Translation, editing : Gan Yung Chyan
/ KUCINTA SETIA
Recently, some American experts said that SARS-CoV-2 may continue to spread for at least 18 months to two years, and 60 to 70% of the world's population will be infected.
The Freedom Times reported on 2 May 2020 that several epidemiological experts in the United States predicted that SARS-CoV-2 that causes covid may continue to spread for at least 18 months to two years, until 60 to 70% of the population is infected. The authorities should stop telling the people that the covid pandemic is gradually ending, and instead call on the people to prepare for a long-term anti-virus war.
Experts suggest that the United States should prepare for the worst-case scenarios, including the second wave of the covid pandemic this fall and winter. Michael Osterholm, one of the report’s contributors and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said the virus will not stop spreading until it infects 60 to 70% of the population. Ending this idea is against microbiology.
The report pointed out that covid is a new disease and no one has immunity. The time of a pandemic may be 18 to 24 months, when the population gradually develops group immunity.
Experts said that there are three possible scenarios for the development of the pandemic in the future: First, after the first pandemic this spring, there was still a series of repeated and smaller-scale epidemics throughout the summer, lasting about 1 to 2 years, and finally in 2021 the time point gradually eased. Second, the large-scale epidemic reappeared in autumn and winter this year, and one or more small-scale epidemics occurred in 2021, that is, similar to the Spanish influenza pandemic from 1918 to 1919. Third, the virus continued to spread slowly but it may not need to restart disaster mitigation measures. Experts suggest that countries and regions should respond to the worst of the three scenarios and formulate specific plans, including under what circumstances to restart disaster mitigation measures and deal with disease peaks.
Earlier, according to Taiwan’s United Daily News, the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Taiwan analyzed the genetic sequences of nearly 2,000 virus strains in the world and found that there are six types of mutations in SARS-CoV-2, and the virus mutations are still being generated, showing that the evolution of the virus is still ongoing.
According to the report, the statistical science and bioinformatics research team composed of Liao Junzhi, dean of the Institute of Science and Technology, and Chen Junhou, the dean of the Institute of Statistics of the Institute of Science and Technology, obtained information from the "Global Shared Influenza Data Initiative" (GISAID), and carried out the mutation and evolution of the virus. Analytical research, this two-pronged approach can clearly show the relationship between virus strain typing and mutation imprint.
The study found that the current six major virus strains in the world can be distinguished by 13 major mutation imprints, and studying the rise and fall of these 13 mutation imprints can help predict the growth and biological significance of each virus strain.
At the same time, they also found that the number of mutations of the virus showed a positive correlation with the lethality, and it gradually increased with time.
However, the Chinese Academy of Sciences also emphasized that the number of samples in this study is still low, and due to the difference in sample representation, the virus must be continuously tracked and analyzed in the future, and the impact of possible interference factors and mutations on clinical treatment must be considered.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences said that there are still new virus mutations that continue to be produced, indicating that the evolution of the virus is still in progress and continuous monitoring is still required.
As of 30 April 2020, there were more than 3.14 million confirmed cases worldwide, and the pandemic has covered at least 215 countries and regions.
Editor : Dai Ming
Publisher : New Tang Dynasty Television
Ref : https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2020/05/02/a102836896.html
Translation, editing : Gan Yung Chyan
/ KUCINTA SETIA
Recently, some American experts said that SARS-CoV-2 may continue to spread for at least 18 months to two years, and 60 to 70% of the world's population will be infected.
The Freedom Times reported on 2 May 2020 that several epidemiological experts in the United States predicted that SARS-CoV-2 that causes covid may continue to spread for at least 18 months to two years, until 60 to 70% of the population is infected. The authorities should stop telling the people that the covid pandemic is gradually ending, and instead call on the people to prepare for a long-term anti-virus war.
Experts suggest that the United States should prepare for the worst-case scenarios, including the second wave of the covid pandemic this fall and winter. Michael Osterholm, one of the report’s contributors and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said the virus will not stop spreading until it infects 60 to 70% of the population. Ending this idea is against microbiology.
The report pointed out that covid is a new disease and no one has immunity. The time of a pandemic may be 18 to 24 months, when the population gradually develops group immunity.
Experts said that there are three possible scenarios for the development of the pandemic in the future: First, after the first pandemic this spring, there was still a series of repeated and smaller-scale epidemics throughout the summer, lasting about 1 to 2 years, and finally in 2021 the time point gradually eased. Second, the large-scale epidemic reappeared in autumn and winter this year, and one or more small-scale epidemics occurred in 2021, that is, similar to the Spanish influenza pandemic from 1918 to 1919. Third, the virus continued to spread slowly but it may not need to restart disaster mitigation measures. Experts suggest that countries and regions should respond to the worst of the three scenarios and formulate specific plans, including under what circumstances to restart disaster mitigation measures and deal with disease peaks.
Earlier, according to Taiwan’s United Daily News, the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Taiwan analyzed the genetic sequences of nearly 2,000 virus strains in the world and found that there are six types of mutations in SARS-CoV-2, and the virus mutations are still being generated, showing that the evolution of the virus is still ongoing.
According to the report, the statistical science and bioinformatics research team composed of Liao Junzhi, dean of the Institute of Science and Technology, and Chen Junhou, the dean of the Institute of Statistics of the Institute of Science and Technology, obtained information from the "Global Shared Influenza Data Initiative" (GISAID), and carried out the mutation and evolution of the virus. Analytical research, this two-pronged approach can clearly show the relationship between virus strain typing and mutation imprint.
The study found that the current six major virus strains in the world can be distinguished by 13 major mutation imprints, and studying the rise and fall of these 13 mutation imprints can help predict the growth and biological significance of each virus strain.
At the same time, they also found that the number of mutations of the virus showed a positive correlation with the lethality, and it gradually increased with time.
However, the Chinese Academy of Sciences also emphasized that the number of samples in this study is still low, and due to the difference in sample representation, the virus must be continuously tracked and analyzed in the future, and the impact of possible interference factors and mutations on clinical treatment must be considered.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences said that there are still new virus mutations that continue to be produced, indicating that the evolution of the virus is still in progress and continuous monitoring is still required.
As of 30 April 2020, there were more than 3.14 million confirmed cases worldwide, and the pandemic has covered at least 215 countries and regions.
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